— Richard Betts (@richardabetts) February 23, 2015
From the New Scientist article Richard links:
Even if the best estimate is for temperatures to rise in the next few years, we shouldn’t be too surprised if the pause continues
Talk about hedging your Betts! 🙂
Lets add some science to the uncertainty. This plot is taster for a Lunar based ENSO prediction technique.
Astrophysicist Ian Wilson has an interesting theory that we may well see an El Nino this winter – just in time for the IPCC COP in Paris to scream “WARMING – Told you so”.
Place Betts now!
Here’s a plot of solar cycle 24 with a 6 month smoother applied
If the sunspot number drops rapidly this year, that makes it more likely an El Nino will occur at around the same time as the Lunar line of Apse and Nodes aligns with the Sun. That prediction is based on observation of historical El Ninos in relation to the Lunar orbital parameters and Solar cycle progressions as shown in the plot below.