Some idea can come from forecast synoptic charts so I have put together charts sets for T+120, T+96, T+72, T+48, T+24 and the T+0 analysis.
In an ideal world these would be identical.
Figure 1, set of forecasts for Eclipse day, 20th March 2015, 12 hours.
Click image for full size PNG, 680kB
T+120 is top left, runs left to right then top the bottom, analysis bottom right or see image legends.
These are reasonable results at the same time as showing why even a 24 hour forecast is inadequate for many purposes.
The infamous rain problem tends to be played down by professionals. Test is a three hour forecast… seen that promoted? It is also only applies to an agreed list of stations, not locally to many people. WMO standard.
You might find this Met Office page useful, if hard work decoding the government speak.
Noticed? No show me, is all talking down, without hard evidence. Doesn’t even provide the list of sites.
I don’t know whether the Met Office has separate weather and climate mainframes, I hope so. Finer detail has been mooted but the input data is mostly woefully coarse, is not going to happen and anyway the exponent is high, number crunching needed capability goes crazy. None of this overcomes the basic flaws, not about average, it’s about worst case, the weather doing peculiar things.
These people are trying so knocking them is not good unless excessive claims are made and that mostly is sales droids, politicos.
There are many places where there are local perturbing conditions, traditionally known to real forecasters. These are few today, outposts are very few.
Climate rubbish, get rid of the lot, put them to work on weather or get out. This might address some of the protest within the Met Office over pay. It does say meteorological, nothing to do with climate. Climate, few people in one office.
Somewhere we have an infamous letter from the Met Office in reply to asking why it was raining when the forecaster said it was sunny. Apparently the forecaster was in an office block and didn’t know. Caused mirth here some years ago.
How far are we from useful medium term forecasts, did we see this coming?
Post by Tim