Booker: Arctic Scare Story Has Frozen Over

Posted: March 29, 2015 by oldbrew in climate, sea ice, Temperature, weather
Tags: , ,

Going nowhere

Going nowhere

Trend or exception: after two consecutive winters with 90% freeze-overs of the North American Great Lakes, plus this assessment(see below), what are the chances of an ‘Arctic death spiral’ as trumpeted in certain quarters over recent years?

Christopher Booker reports in the Sunday Telegraph (h/t GWPF):
As Britain emerges from an unusually sunny and comparatively mild winter, spare a thought for the people of eastern Canada, still in the grip of their most terrifying winter for decades. Recent pictures online of “Photographic proof that Canada’s east coast is basically the ice planet Hoth” show hapless residents standing below ice cliffs and snow drifts 20ft high. This month the Globe and Mail of Toronto, which endured its coldest February on record, described 2015 for Canada’s Atlantic provinces as having been like living in a “prison of snow and ice”.

But if this is just “weather”, consider what is going on further north, in that vast area at the top of the world long promoted by propagandists for global warming as the ultimate proof that their scare story was coming true. In 2007 we were told on all sides that, by the end of the summer melt in 2014, the entire Arctic would be “ice free”. Polar bears were disappearing. The mighty Greenland ice cap was melting. Even as late as 2013 the National Geographic warned that the great expanse of Hudson Bay was warming so fast that it would soon reach “tipping point”, changing its ecosystem for ever.

How have all those predictions turned out? In fact last year’s Arctic ice melt was the smallest in nine years and its thickness is now back to its level in 2006 (for graphs, see Paul Homewood’s Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog). Several studies show that across most of the Arctic, polar bears have never done better (for map see“Healthy polar bears: less than healthy science”, written by Canadian biologist Dr Susan Crockford for the Global Warming Policy Foundation). A recent study by the Danish Meteorological Institute shows the Greenland ice cap having recently grown to more than its average level over 25 years. Last week’s daily reports by the Canada Ice Service showed that, even in late March, Hudson Bay is still entirely frozen.

Add in the record expansion of sea ice at the other end of the world and we see that the global extent of polar sea ice is now almost exactly as great as it was when satellite measurements began in 1979. The people of eastern Canada, as they shovel away snow “for the 100th time”, might be forgiven for not being convinced that the world is in the grip of runaway global warming. I’m not sure President Obama and our own politicians should be forgiven for continuing to disagree with them.

The Sunday Telegraph, 29 March 2015

Christopher Booker: Arctic Scare Story Has Frozen Over .

Only propagandists and their followers are ‘in the grip of runaway global warming’ fever. Normal folk are rightly suspicious of their speculative scare stories.

  1. Bryan says:

    CO2 driven Global Warming hysteria competes with the Piltdown Man as contenders for the title of the most naked antiscience proposal on record

  2. FTOP_T says:

    Eastern Canada, Greenland, snow in the Middle East, Eastern Europe are all weather. The British Isles is where man-made climate change is /sarc

  3. ren says:

    Please see how the water vapor in the atmosphere.
    The amount of water vapor at a height of 5 km.

    You can see that the water vapor over continents absorbs solar radiation.

    The energy needed to evaporate surface is cooled during the day, but water vapor due to the large heat capacity reduces the vertical temperature gradien atmosphere. Water vapor due to the high heat capacity also collected heat energy directly from the sun during the day, as seen in the following graphic.
    Product shows the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS). The AVHRR and HIRS OLR products are divided into day and night (ascending and descending) products.
    Monthly Mean
    — Day

    Monthly Mean
    — Night

  4. ren says:

    Please still see steam in the tropopause.

    Water vapor due to the high heat capacity also collected heat energy directly from the sun during the day, as seen in the following graphic.

  5. ren says:

    On the above graphic radiation of February clearly visible cold regions in America and even the difference between night and day.

  6. ren says:

    The temperature gradient in the winter polar vortex depends on the speed of the solar wind. Polar vortex expands and contracts depending on the strength of the solar wind. When expands pressure rises in the troposphere above the the polar circle, which enables the exchange of air at high and mid-latitudes. When the vortex is strong exchange is blocked by a strong jet stream.

  7. ren says:

    As I wrote changes in the polar vortex will cause return to the Central European winter. Precipitation gets wet snow from Germany to the east. Forecasts show this clearly. It will be a real April Fool’s Day and it’s of several days.

    It gets colder in the west of the US, and warmer in the east. However, Canada will be snow.

  8. ren says:

    The temperature of the atmosphere over Antarctica is about 4 degrees C below average.

  9. aequitas45 says:

    Ren, I wonder if the solar wind in a weak solar magnetic field is able to increase the earth’s electromagnetic field in the upper atmosphere to a strong enough level to direct the the polar water molecules in the jet stream around the polar magnetic field and cause the entire jet stream to exhibit the pattern you have been posting this past winter?

  10. Ron Clutz says:

    Alarmists are always claiming the Arctic Sea Ice is the “canary in the coal mine.” Wrong. Arctic ice extent varies a lot for a lot of reasons. Predictions of its disappearing because of rising CO2 are another attempt to use a natural process as proof that global warming is dangerous and linked to fossil fuels.

    Like most things in the climate, many factors are involved in determining Arctic sea ice extent, such as water circulations, clouds and winds. Among those many influences, the weakest case is claiming CO2 as a driving force.

  11. Kon Dealer says:

    No, No, NO! Don’t you get it? These extreme winters are an expected result of climate change and Global weirding.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Check out Ron Clutz’s blog post on this topic (link above in his comment).

  13. ren says:

    Product shows the incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. It is derived from the AVHRR instrument. The available solar energy only varies with the solar zenith angle.
    Monthly Mean, 2/2015

  14. ren says:

    Temperature anomaly.

  15. ren says:


  16. Ron Clutz says:

    There’s more to the Arctic Ice story.

    Measuring anything in the Arctic is problematic due to the conditions. And any technology has limitations and uncertainties. Thus it is useful to have more than one estimate of ice extent. Compared to operational ice charts, the passive microwave results underestimate ice extent, especially during the late summer minimum. The difficulty is mistaking surface melt water from open water, failing to discern the ice underneath.

    “In summer, the difference between the two sources of data rises to a maximum of 23% peaking in early August, equivalent to ice coverage the size of Greenland.“

  17. ren says:

    Today you can see the strength of Europe’s jet stream and the polar vortex.

  18. oldbrew says:

    ARCTIC ICE DECLINE: A NEW “PAUSE?” – by Dr David Whitehouse

    ‘Examining the sea ice extent data for the past eight years it is obvious that there has not been any statistically significant downward trend, even though there is more noise (interannual variability) in the data. There are interannual variations but they do not form a trend’

  19. oldbrew says:

    Steven Goddard’s ‘Arctic death spiral’ spoof, based on warmist opinions: