Back in 2011. Tim Channon used his cycles analysis software to predict the evolution of the solar polar fields. The basis of the curve he produced is the motion of the gas giant planets, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. As they orbit the Sun, they force the Sun to move relative to the centre of mass of the entire solar system. We see this motion when astronomers look out into the near cosmos and observe other stars ‘wobbling’. By measuring the wobble with respect to time, they are able to deduce the mass and distance of planets orbiting those stars, even though they are too small and dim to see directly.
Tim found that our Sun’s wobble due to the gas giant planets matched the observational data of the evolution of the Solar polar magnetic fields mentioned in the post put up by Stuart ‘Oldbrew‘ yesterday.
Here’s the plot Tim put up in 2011
At the time, it looked like the data was going to diverge from the prediction, but read on below the break to see the outcome.
Four years later we can see how well Tim’s model is panning out. The match is excellent, and this is yet another confirmation of our solar planetary theory.
Currently, the world’s leading expert solar physicists are only able to make guesses about the next solar cycle from the polar field observational data. But here at the talkshop, we can predict the evolution far into the future, because the motion of the planets is itself predictable.
This result also lends weight to Rick Salvador’s model, which uses Earth Venus, Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus to hindcast and predict sunspot activity levels. His model also shows sunspot ‘minimum’ coming up soon, though with the current anomalously behaving Sun, it may ‘merge’ into a longer cycle with SC25.
Talkshop contributor Vukevic has also been running an updated polar field plot against his own formula, which is simpler than that used in Tim’s model. Vuk’s just uses the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, but still does quite well.
His model predicts the field reaching a maximum this year, whereas ours peaks in 2017. Time will tell. Interpretation of our model might indicate an imminent ‘rush to the poles’ for the magnetic fields, as the oscillation apparent in the observational data swings upwards. We should get confirmation of that within months.