Blizard and solar CME forecasting

Posted: April 9, 2015 by tchannon in Forecasting, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.
Image

From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

The scheme has been investigated by a Dr Blizard, U of Denver, report for NASA October 1969.

When I notice some well known names, consulted with L DeVries, J Eddy, C Dalton I took the paper as a serious attempt at validating Nelson.

Long Rang Solar Flare Prediction[1]

Abstract

Statistical studies of solar cycles show a high correlation between solar perturbations and proton events. It is hypothesized that the motion of the sun and planets about the center of mass of the solar system could trigger solar disturbances in unstable zones in the solar subphotosphere at active longitudes. The results of this study indicate that many of the major recorded proton events occurred near to major planet conjunctions.

— Scan of paper [1]

History didn’t pan out. Whether this is reality or a mistake, you dig it out.


1. Long Rang Solar Flare Prediction, Blizard, file here PDF 6MB scan of hardcopy

2. A vaguely connected compendium from October 1978, and already showing familiar diagrams
atm-rad-thumb
AGARD lecture series No 93, Recent Advances in Radio and Optical Propagation for Modern Communications, Navigation and Detection Systems, NATO. Marked unrestricted public release, 1993.
Local copy, file here, 271pages, 16MB PDF scan of hardcopy
Original “www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a054205.pdf”

Post by Tim

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Venus-Mercury-Jupiter are nearly conjunct at the end of this month. Will there be any solar flares or the like?

    Blizard: ‘Among triple conjunctions, it is no surprise to find Mercury-Venus-Jupiter to be of paramount importance.’

  2. tom0mason says:

    Google scholar says JH Nelson’s work is also referenced in –
    SCIENCE CHINA June 2010 Vol. 53 No. 6: 1725-1731. Doi: 10.1007/s11431-010-3169-3.
    ‘Statistical Analysis and Model of Spread F Occurance in China’ XU Tong1, WU ZhenSen2, HU YanLi, WU Jian, SUO YuCheng, and FENG Jian.
    1-National Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Environment, China Research Institute of Radio Propagation.
    2-School of Science, Xidian University, Xi’an 710071. China.

    Unfortunately it is paywalled thus preventing further investigation.

  3. tchannon says:

    As it stands, without more information there is nothing to be done. Configurations meaning nothing as such unless there is a fast acting communicator. I’m open on this being ionising or similar, moreover we know that strange fast events exist.

    This broken web page at NASA gives an example
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1999/ast13dec99_1/

    So far as I can glean Blizard and Nelson are contradictory. Nelson is talking very fast timing, Blizard is vague, orders of magnitude. So what are the claims?

  4. Geoff Sharp says:

    Thanks Tim for the link to Blizard and Woods work, I have been looking for their work for some time.

    Amazing stuff, 186 pages of complete nonsense, no wonder planetary science is mostly considered pseudo-science, the Jose/Wood predictions for SC21/22 are so wrong. At the end of the day ALL of the pioneers got it wrong.

    Page 147 stands out (Wood) ” At times when Uranus and Neptune are near conjunction, sunspot cycles peak at a time when when Jupiter is a few years ahead of the mean positions of Uranus and Neptune, and the Saturn effect is minor.”

    Saturn effect minor??? This is the biggest mistake ever made in planetary science. If Wood had looked at where Saturn is when Jupiter/Uranus and Neptune are together he would have found the key to solar grand minimum.

    I will include the Jose/Wood predictions in my “Pioneering Facts” article and also include the prediction in my presentation to a very large astronomical society in July.

  5. ren says:

    The increase in magnetic activity (as in 2004). Will there be a sharp decline?

  6. ren says:

    Click graf.