Casati: new study, major geophysical events and Ap index 1844 onwards

Posted: April 13, 2015 by tchannon in Earthquakes, volcanos

Dr Michele Casati is familiar to many Talkshop readers as an occassional contributor and for his blog.

A new study is being presented at EGU General Assembly 2015, held 12April – 15April, 2015 in Vienna, Austria

Relationship between major geophysical events and the planetary magnetic Ap index, from 1844 to the present

Michele,Casati; Valentino,Straser


In this study, for the first time, we compared the annual magnetic Ap index, taken from original sources, from 1844 to the present day [Svalgaard,2014], with:

i) sixteen large volcanic eruptions of index VEI5 + recorded by, Smithsonian Institute (Global Volcanism Program), ii) three sets of the volcanic aerosols data [Ammann,2003][Gao;Chaochao;Alan Robock;Caspar Ammann, 2008][Traufetter,2004] and iii) eight major earthquakes of a magnitude between 8.7<M<9.5, which occurred from 1900 to the present.

We observe that the twenty four major geophysical events which occurred were in proximity to two specific thresholds, or limits, of the annual planetary Ap index. Specifically, in the downward phase of the planetary Ap index, under the annual value of 7 or, in the phase when the annual value exceeded 22. We identified a total of 14 transitions (eight in the solar minimum and six in the solar maxima) each with a period of about two and a half years making a total of almost 35 years of activity during the 169 years under review. During the 14 transitions 18 of the 24 major historical geophysical events occurred from 1844 to the present. Analysis of data shows a clear link between the electromagnetic (EM) dynamics recorded in large historical solar minima (Maunder, Dalton or solar minimum 1880-1920), the large solar maxima (solar cycles 19, 21 & 22) and the energy released during large geophysical events [Casati,2014]. The physical process of solar-terrestrial interaction, also reveal a deep and intrinsic relationship between the EM dynamics of the inner solar system and the temporal occurrence of major geophysical events. The references in scientific literature, in support of this work, are numerous: from empirical evidence, that we find in the late nineteenth century – early twentieth century, to more recent references.
Some of which are:[Casey,2010][Charvátová,2010][Choi,2010][Duma and Vilardo,1998][Khachikyan et al,2014][Kolvankar,2008][Kovalyov,2014][Mazzarella and Palumbo,1989][Stothers,1989][Streštik,2003][Sytinsky,1987,1989,1998].

— A copy is on Michele’s site

Post by Tim

  1. husq says:

    Sorry about this:

    You see, it can always be shown that when things like fiery eruptions happen on the earth, they are connected with the constellations, the relation of the stars to the sun. An eruption can never occur unless at some particular place the sun is able to shine more strongly than usual because it is not covered by other stars. If it is covered by other stars as is generally the case, then the sunshine is normal.

  2. husq says:

    Brian Keats Astro calender. Click on extreme weather tab.

  3. Here is what I think Michele. First look at my post at 8:18 pm Mar.30.

    I can see a tie in with more geological activity near solar maximum due to extreme solar events taking place around that time. Not as great however as around very quiet prolonged solar minimum conditions, with a severe solar event taking place within the prolonged solar minimum period.

    I think five factors come into play to determine if an increase geological activity is going to follow a major solar event. I think the five factors are the relative strength of earth’s magnetic field, the overall level of solar activity in general, the geomagnetic storm strength itself , the state of instability of the plates at that point in time ,and most IMPORTANT the strength in the geomagnetic storm in relation to the level of solar activity in general.

    I think the greater the spread is between the average AP index and the AP index during the geomagnetic storm the greater the chances will be for major geological activity to follow.

    This is not a black and white situation unfortunately. This is my best take ,I do not know for certain if this is correct but it seems to be logical in many respects to my way of thinking.

  4. Michele says:

    Thank Rog and Tim for this post.

    Salvatore, the assertion that solar activity is the primary cause of earthquakes is not correct.
    I believe that gravitation and electromagnetism are not the cause.
    The issue (solar and/or planetary geological relationship) is more complex and unknown.

    The astronomical geometry is a “one” answer but it is not complete, see :

    New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 60, September, 2011
    Vinayak G. KOLVANKAR
    Former scientist, BARC, Mumbai 400051, India

    The astronomical-geological interactions (primary physics phenomena) remind to me the old nicola tesla patent’s (notes of laboratories)…
    To be, or not to be … Michelson-Morley or not Michelson-Morley …

  5. I believe that gravitation and electromagnetism are not the cause.

    Michele you said in the above. Is that correct? Thanks

  6. Michele says:

    Yes, I think that Tim Cullen is on the right track..