Grand solar minima and maxima deduced from 10 Be 14 C

Posted: April 28, 2015 by tchannon in Analysis, cosmic rays, Solar physics

This paper published 10th March tries to identify major episodic solar activity by using both 14C and 10BeImage

(note to reader, above x-axis has advancing time running right to left)

Grand solar minima and maxima deduced from 10Be and 14C: magnetic dynamo configuration and polarity reversal
F. Inceoglu, R. Simoniello, M. F. Knudsen, C. Karoff, J. Olsen, S. Turck-Chiéze, B. H. Jacobsen
A&A 577 A20 (2015)
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201424212

Abstract

Aims. This study aims to improve our understanding of the occurrence and origin of grand solar maxima and minima.
Methods. We first investigate the statistics of peaks and dips simultaneously occurring in the solar modulation potentials reconstructed using the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) 10 Be and IntCal13 14 C records for the overlapping time period spanning between ~1650 AD to 6600 BC.

Image

I’ve included this on the front page because I think the bimodality of solar data is an important matter where this work adds weight to the effect being real.

http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2015/04/aa21064-13/aa21064-13.html
Open access with registration

Based on the distribution of these events, we propose a method to identify grand minima and maxima periods.
By using waiting time distribution analysis, we investigate the nature of grand minima and maxima periods identified based on the criteria as well as the variance and significance of the Hale cycle during these kinds of events throughout the Holocene epoch.
Results. Analysis of grand minima and maxima events occurring simultaneously in the solar modulation potentials, reconstructed based on the 14 C and the 10 Be records, shows that the majority of events characterized by periods of moderate activity levels tend to last less than 50 years: grand maxima periods do not last longer than 100 years, while grand minima can persist slightly longer. The power and the variance of the 22-year Hale cycle increases during grand maxima and decreases during grand minima, compared to periods characterized by moderate activity levels.
Conclusions. We present the first reconstruction of the occurrence of grand solar maxima and minima during the Holocene based on simultaneous changes in records of past solar variability derived from tree-ring 14 C and ice-core 10 Be, respectively. This robust determination of the occurrence of grand solar minima and maxima periods will enable systematic investigations of the influence of grand solar minima and maxima episodes on Earth’s climate.

This work is useful, the authors are trying to unify the whole thing.

A criticism by me is various groups and individuals trying to use augmentation of single data to gain a greater meaning on the basis there is a common underlying truth. This is somewhat risky since it relies on independence. All coherency is involved, not necessarily known about. In this case I have concern over both 14C and 10Be data without raising details here.

Post by Tim

Comments
  1. Geoff Sharp says:

    This is not the first time the two proxy records have been compared but their methodology is of interest.

    My understanding is that the dating mechanism used by the 10Be record is the 14C dendrochronology method which will naturally align both records. Tree rings are easier to date compared to ice cores.

    Of interest is that now that we have an ephemeris dating back the entire Holocene we can compare planetary alignments with known grand minima. All alignments back to at least 6000BC seem to line up except for a brief period of 340 years at around 3500BC. Because the 4 outer planets repeat almost exactly at 4627 years we should expect another LIA in the proxy records centered at around 3100BC, but instead we see high solar output. But if we go back a further 340 years another LIA appears?

    I believe there is a discrepancy in the dendrochronology record.

    http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/323

  2. tchannon says:

    Uh huh, now why did I mention being unhappy with the proxy?

    This is however the possibility of phase alternation, low, high, low, high. We know this happens from magnetic.

  3. tom0mason says:

    Your links direct me to a very informative paper at ht t p://www.aanda[dot]org called ‘The structure of solar radio noise storms’ by C. Mercier et al

    And a might fine paper it is too but…

    The links I believe you require is http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201424212

    and http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2015/05/aa24212-14/aa24212-14.html

  4. tchannon says:

    tom0mason… I was going to do that paper, hard to bring out anything from an article of that nature. (or the one at the top here). Increasingly boils down to readership has changed.

    a&a often have papers of possible interest and also allow access.

  5. tom0mason says:

    From Joanne Nova’s and then ChiefIO’s blogs, my attention has called to look at two papers that you may find interesting

    1. Nanowerk write-up and link to a research paper –

    Multifractals suggest the existence of an unknown physical mechanism on the Sun.

    (Nanowerk News) The famous sunspots on the surface of the Earth’s star result from the dynamics of strong magnetic fields, and their numbers are an important indicator of the state of activity on the Sun. At the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Kraków, Poland, researchers have been conducting multifractal analysis into the changes in the numbers of sunspots. The resulting graphs were surprisingly asymmetrical in shape, suggesting that sunspots may be involved in hitherto unknown physical processes.

    2. NJIT has a paper “NJIT’s New Solar Telescope Peers Deep into the Sun to Track the Origins of Space Weather”

    Scientists at NJIT’s Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) have captured the first high-resolution images of the flaring magnetic structures known as solar flux ropes at their point of origin in the Sun’s chromosphere. Their research, published today in Nature Communications, provides new insights into the massive eruptions on the Sun’s surface responsible for space weather.