Ian Wilson: The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 – 1963 to 1994

Posted: May 31, 2015 by tallbloke in Celestial Mechanics, solar system dynamics
Tags: , ,

This repost of Ian Wilson’s Jan 1st article at his Astro-Climate-Connection blog continues development of his hypothesis that the Moon triggers El Nino events. This is relevant as we are currently on the cusp of El Nino, which may develop as the year goes on. Ian predicted El Nino for later this year in a comment here last year, based on his investigations.

The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 – 1963 to 1994
Jan 1st 2015 : Ian Wilson PhD

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up into six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31 year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niño events leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:
New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 – Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 – 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 – 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
[N.B. During these epochs, the peak seasonal tides are dominated by new moons that are predominately in the northern hemisphere.]

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[N.B. During these epochs. the peak seasonal tides are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the southern hemisphere.]
If we specifically look at the 31 year New Moon Epoch 5, we find that: 

Figures 1, 2, and 3 (below) show the Moon’s distance from the Earth (in kilometres) at the times where it crosses the Earth’s equator, for the years 1964 through to 1995.

Figure 1
  Figure 2
Figure 3

Superimposed on each of these figures are the seven strong(#) El Niño events that occurred during this time period. Table 1 summaries the dates (i.e year and month) for start of each of these seven strong El Niño events.

Table 1

# For the definition of a strong El Niño event go to part c) of:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_12.html

[* N.B. The 1969 El Niño event just falls short of the selection criterion for a strong El Niño event because it only last for three months. It has been included in Table 1 for completeness.]

Figures 1,2 and 3 clearly show that all of the eight El Niño events in this tidal epoch occur at times where the distance of the Moon as sequential crossings of the Earth’s equator have almost the same value of ~ 382,000 km. In the years when this happens, the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

It is possible that this correlation could be dismissed as a coincidence. However, it is extremely unlikely that:

a)  during the other New Moon tidal epoch i.e. Epoch 3 – from the 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932, El Niño events should also occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

b) during the Full Moon tidal epochs i.e. Epoch 2 – 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901; Epoch 4 – 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963; Epoch 6 – 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025, El Nino events should occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the March or September Equinox.

The switch between timing of El Niño events, once every 31 years, at the same time that there is a switch from a New Moon tidal epoch to Full Moon tidal epoch, tell us that it is very likely that El Niño events, are in fact, triggered by the lunar tides.

Comments
  1. Bloke down the pub says:

    So what prediction would you like to make with regard to future El Niños that would corroborate this?

  2. tallbloke says:

    Paul Parakeet is getting arsey about ENSO on twitter:

  3. Bloke down the pub says:

    Rog, 2015-16 is looking good, we’ll just have to come back in 2019-20 to see how things have panned out. It would be nice to think that by then cagw will have died a death but I won’t be holding my breath.

  4. Paul Vaughan says:

    On 5.9 year & 6.4 year:
    I linked to contextearth & astroclimateconnection in the informal blitz I mentioned here:
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/05/31/paul-vaughan-sun-climate-101-solar-terrestrial-primer/comment-page-1/#comment-101908

    As I mentioned in informal comments: this can be tested.

    As for the ENSO hindcasting: wavelets can match those curves perfectly with ease (arbitrarily high r^2), but I don’t pretend that facilitates extrapolation into the future. I think a lot of naive people will be genuinely fooled into misinterpreting the forecasting implications of near-perfect fits.

  5. oldbrew says:

    ‘We realists’ have to figure out why their warming theory doesn’t produce any more warming than we had nearly two decades ago.