Archive for June, 2015

Paris climate conference - get ready for this

Paris climate conference – get ready for this


Scottish Sceptic has an amusing piece about the forthcoming climate charade in Paris, which looks like being as full of hot air as it is empty of credible substance:

There’s a boringly familiar pattern to these climate talks in Paris. The rhetoric is all about making deals, but the reality is that everyone is backpedalling furiously behind the scenes trying the darnest to prevent any serious deal getting made. But what is different this time is that if anything the parties are being far more open in their desire not to come to any deal this time than all the previous clown fests from Jokenhagen onward.

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Since I can, maybe, I decided to sell the new software a pup…

Goes likes this: plot RSSTLT and UAHTLT6 with the do not delete file flag, import both CSV into spreadsheet, subtract, change some text, export as CSV, start hacking, add a way to accept an alien file, and yay, it works.

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Figure 1, RSSTLT less UAHTLT V6, forced plot range, unweighted

Any no data in either is no data, otherwise verbatim.
Force range is about that Himalayas spike in RSS, autoscale sees it but is so extreme a manual reduces the range, value clips to maximum colour, no change. (in a global sense one cell is gnats pee)

PDF for pan and zoom is here (283kB)
I can do a version with annotated temperatures if requested, large file. If names want this, expect you have my email.

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RSS temperatures for May 2015 in pictures

Posted: June 10, 2015 by tchannon in weather

UAH seem late this month, RSS is out. Nothing unusual.

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Figure 1, Global mean computed from data used exactly matches official.

What follows is the works for RSS.

I’ll be explaining weighted later on. The point is attempting an honest representation.

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Oops, June frosts

Posted: June 9, 2015 by tchannon in weather

A few gardeners will be unhappy about the notorious June frosts appearing during 2015 but I suspect not severe enough to damage much but it will check growth.

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Note too how the wind caps temperature rise.

Ground frosts provided they are brief rarely cause damage, air frost is a different matter. Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, England were all cold where the wind was able to fall calm. We are almost at the longest day of the year so nights are brief, dawn is plain at 4am BST minimising the time for cooling.

We have had a series of pleasant days but rather cool at night, continuing, although a change in the weather is expected. Tends to be lovely sunny after dawn, then clouds turn up. We get a summer? Hopefully soon.

I noticed the house thermostat was calling for heat last night, if it did (is switched off at night) would have been brief… looks a nice day but outside the wind says cool.

Katesbridge dipped to -1C last night, an air frost. Aonach Mo wasn’t far behind, with a wind, not calm but that’s Scotland and 3000ft up. Eskdalemuir came very close, 1000ft, Shap, Bala, and so on. Plenty of places were cold enough for a ground frost.

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USnatgas
The manufactured paranoia about threats to public water supplies from ‘fracking’ methods used to extract gas and oil turns out to be mostly hot air. Occasional problems have been due to mistakes basically.

Natural gas companies, people with property and/or mineral rights overlying shale formations containing commercial deposits of natural gas or oil, and American consumers breathed a sigh of relief last week when the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its much anticipated report concerning the potential threat fracking poses to water supplies. The EPA found fracking only rarely results in water contamination, and even then it is mainly due to operator error or poor practices not to the method of oil and gas production itself.

According to the four year, multi-million dollar report, 1,399 page report, the EPA, “did not find evidence that these mechanisms [hydraulic fracturing] have led to widespread, systemic impacts on drinking water resources in the United States.”

Full story: Fracking Poses Minimal Risk to Water Supplies Concludes EPA | Heartlander Magazine.

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All hail the Great Wall of Swansea! What could possibly go wrong?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-32993437

I reported back in February on plans for a tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay. Evidently the plans are moving closer to fruition.

The BBC report:

A £300m deal to build the six-mile wall for the world’s first tidal lagoon power plant in Swansea Bay has been awarded to a company from China.

China Harbour Engineering Company will open a base in the UK and spend half of the contract’s value on a British workforce, partners and supply chain.

Prime Minister David Cameron said the deal was “win-win” for both countries.

About 1,850 construction jobs could be created by the £1bn lagoon project, which could operate from 2018.

Mark Shorrock, chief executive of Tidal Lagoon Power, said: “I have worked in China, speak Chinese and have huge esteem for China’s delivery capability and ability to deliver projects to time and budget.”

The two firms could also work…

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Variation in sunspot properties between 1999 and 2014

R. Rezaei1, C. Beck, A. Lagg, J. M. Borrero, W. Schmidt and M. Collados

A&A Volume 578, June 2015 Article Number A43
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201425557
Published online 01 June 2015
Open access with registration

Abstract

Aims. We study the variation in the magnetic field strength, area, and continuum intensity of umbrae in solar cycles 23 and 24.

Conclusions. The umbral brightness decreases in the rising stage of a solar cycle, but increases from maximum toward the end of the cycle. Our results do not indicate a drastic change of the solar cycle toward a grand minimum in the near future.

Specifically disagrees with Livingson et.al. concluding the weak trending lower is too minor for there to be much change on the horizon.

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Snowy Boston 2015

Snowy Boston 2015


Despite the fact that former climate guru James Hansen conceded there had been a temperature standstill in the current century, it’s now claimed by the NOAA that it was all a myth.

A reported pause in global warming—a mystery that has vexed scientists and delighted contrarians—was an illusion based on inadequate data, U.S. government researchers reported Thursday.

The findings by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers that there was no warming “hiatus” over the past 15 years could reshape consensus science on recent climate change. The research undercuts an argument of pundits and politicians who oppose taking action.

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Antarctic sea ice sets new high In May

Posted: June 4, 2015 by oldbrew in Analysis, Dataset, sea ice
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Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]

Tabular iceberg in the Weddell Sea [credit: British Antarctic Survey]


These Antarctic headlines are becoming almost routine, but still worth noting in view of all the propaganda telling us the world is supposed to be warming.

This is a comparison of data for the month of May only, stretching back to 1979. In the files linked at the end of the reportingclimatescience.com report (see ‘Source’ in original), there are separate figures for ‘extent’ and ‘area’, with an explanation of the difference (see Arctic file).

The lowest May figures (since 1979) for both polar regions were recorded in 2006, but the Antarctic was 12% above the long-term May average this year.

Report: Antarctic Sea Ice Sets New High In May.

Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]

Comparison of the eight brightest TNOs [credit: Wikipedia]


As Pluto is getting some media attention due to the impending ‘fly-by’ of a NASA space probe, let’s take a look at its orbital relationship with its neighbours.

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The Lovejoy Meltdown

Posted: June 1, 2015 by oldbrew in solar system dynamics
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Tim Cullen analyses the ‘comet that didn’t die’ and gives the Roche limit and other cherished concepts of ‘settled science’ a sharp poke in the ribs.

MalagaBay

The Lovejoy Meltdown

In December 2011 the mainstream huddled around their computers to watch the fiery death of the Sun grazing Comet Lovejoy [designated C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)] as it approached perihelion.

But when Comet Lovejoy emerged from the behind the Sun [on its return journey] the mainstream realised they were actually watching the meltdown of Settled Science.

Comet Lovejoy was discovered by Terry Lovejoy on 27th November 2011 and it was subsequently determined to be a member of the Kreutz family of sun grazing comets.

Terry Lovejoy

The Kreutz Sungrazers are a family of sungrazing comets, characterized by orbits taking them extremely close to the Sun at perihelion.

They are believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago and are named for German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who first demonstrated that they were related.

A Kreutz Sungrazers’s aphelion is about 160 AU from the Sun; these sungrazers make…

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