This little work rather counters the headless chickens preparing for a French cooking pot.
Figure 1, CRU/Hadley/Met Office precipitation series starting 1766, just one in the HadUKP series. Good news, there is nothing more than weather noise in any of the 11 region series. All bundled in this PDF. (2MB)
For number watchers, Jan 2014 came 11th wettest.
This note is on their web page
We are currently planning a project to merge the HadUKP series with the England and Wales Rainfall series described above. The outcome of this project will be a single historical rainfall series for the UK.
I suppose that makes sense yet neither series is IMO satisfactory on geography. The UK has a variety of weather regimes. Merging regimes has the effect of mixing evidence where average is not very useful. Is there a better solution?
Couple of days ago I was in passing reminded of the HadUKP data, took a shufty at the data files, looks easy. Apart from needing to change the way I was handling multiple series in one set, worked immediately, no core code change.
The intent is an honest look where the variation is moved into the z-score domain and without the perfectly normal variation during a year. Perhaps counter-intuitively this if anything enhances seasonal change.
In the rankings I include the actual figure.
High Rank Date Z Actual
1 1903.79 3.32831 218.1
2 1947.21 3.1805 177.5
3 1912.63 2.99229 192.9
Here, March is normally a drier time of year, not in 1947.
As you can see a side effect is disputing official rankings where normal seasonal change is not taken into account… who cares if it rains during early winter, that’s what it does, now how exceptional is it? A second point in this is breaking the meteorological poor practice of hard edging seasons, as the real world of course does. Timing varies.
Articles like this tend to be blog traffic killers, as-if there is any way to show ordinary, null, and have any real interest. The blog can stand some of this.
Post by Tim