Frosty forecast for BBC-MET Office relations

Posted: August 23, 2015 by tallbloke in Forecasting
Tags: ,

Josh 2015
Met Office loses BBC weather forecasting contract.
[Josh has waved magic –Tim (replacement image Original image)]

The UK’s weather service has provided the data used for BBC forecasts since the corporation’s first radio weather bulletin on 14 November 1922.

The BBC said it was legally required to secure the best value for money for licence fee payers and would tender the contract to outside competition.

The Met Office said it was disappointed by the decision. A replacement is expected to take over next year.

Disappointing news
Steve Noyes, Met Office operations and customer services director, said: “Nobody knows Britain’s weather better and, during our long relationship with the BBC, we’ve revolutionised weather communication to make it an integral part of British daily life.

“This is disappointing news, but we will be working to make sure that vital Met Office advice continues to be a part of BBC output.”

Full story

  1. Is Piers Corbyn taking over?

  2. EternalOptimist says:

    There is a 90% chance that this will turn out ok. And I have never been wrong’ – Dame Julia Slingo

  3. David in Kent says:

    Pay for performance, now that would be a good basis for tendering for weather forecasts

  4. craigm350 says:

    I bet GIMP5 CMIP5 didn’t forecast that? 😉

  5. craigm350 says:

    Maybe Greenpeace will be part of the tender process and we can look forward to this every day 😉

  6. Bryan says:

    This year the Met Office has been pretty accurate with their 2 day shipping forecast.
    Much more so than XCWeather which is the other one I use.
    Beyond two days though you might as well toss a coin.

    The shipping forecast format has changed little in the last twenty years which makes the MET office look pretty parsimonious compared to other providers
    For instance the Met Office area blocks are huge so averaging over big areas tells you little about local conditions
    Meteo consult Marine a french company for instance will break one Met Office UK area into 4 or 5 blocks as well as providing wave height and swell which the Met Office do not offer

  7. Anoneumouse says:

    Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular Article 53(1), Article 62 and Article 114 thereof, we have DIRECTIVE 2014/24/EU.

    Hoisted and Petard come to mind. Don’t you just love irony.

  8. Fanakapan says:

    Probably means that the Met Office dont have people coming up through the ranks who are prepared to keep the ‘Warming’ meme going ?

    Whats the betting that the body who takes over will be more interested in making the weather fit their world view ? 🙂

  9. tchannon says:

    Only one facet is being mentioned, price. What else is in the specification being demanded?

    Who set the specification?

  10. oldbrew says:

    To overcome the likely effects of this earth-shattering disaster, just take the Met Office advice – go to their website and get the UK forecast from the horse’s mouth.

    ‘As ever, everyone will be able to access trusted Met Office forecasts and warnings on our own digital channels like our app and mobile website, delivered as text, symbols and videos. You can embed that information easily in your own website too.’

  11. Skeptik says:

    I wonder which one of the BBQ summers was the straw that broke the camels back.

  12. oldbrew says:

    It does seem a bit odd that the BBC is dumping the Met Office, given they’re both wedded to the man-made global warming fiction. Some of its long-range forecasts were embarrassing though.

    ‘The Met Office stopped publishing its long-range forecasts for the public to see in 2010, after its disastrous prediction of a ‘barbeque summer’ in 2009 – which ended in washouts throughout July and August.
    The three-month forecasts are now sent only to contingency planners, such as councils, government departments, and insurance companies.’

    Read more:

  13. tallbloke says:

    Thanks Josh!

    Some links from Benny Peiser:

    1) BBC Pulls Plug On Met Office – The Sunday Times, 24 August 2015

    2) BBC Denies Climate Sceptics Behind Decision To Ditch Met Office – The Independent on Sunday, 23 August 2015

    3) Editorial: Met Office Feels Icy Blast Of Competition – Daily Mail, 24 August 2015

    4) Quentin Letts: I’m Not Surprised The BBC Dumps Climate Change Obsessed Met Office – Daily Mail, 24 August 2015

    5) Rollback: Britain Gearing Up To Slash Solar Subsidies – City A.M., 24 August 2015

    6) Green Nimbys Vs Government: Battle Looms Over Britain’s Energy Future – The Times, 22 August 2015

  14. Hi to all you statisticians out there.

    The met office quotes accuracy better than 90 % on temperature forecasts to within 2 deg but uses ETS scores for precipitation. Their target is ETS of 0.5 The only way to know if this is good or bad seems to be to compare the accuracy of other forecasting organisations, but searching websites I can’t find any other organisation that seems to use this. Does anyone know if 0.5 is good or bad?
    Why don’t they use the same scoring system for temp and rainfall, is it because they are so bad at rainfall prediction they want to obfuscate?

    Met office 2013-2014 commercial sales ~ £32M, so less BBC of £30M – £2M, not very much.

  15. Is it £30M or £3M, seems some confusion, I suspect £3M is nearer the mark.

    [reply] it’s £3m.

  16. Paul Vaughan says:

    I choose to believe that they lost this contract because they’ve been darkly ignorant &/or deceptive about sun-climate relations …and that the Talkshop was the venue where the devilish antics were exposed.

    r^2 = 70% with no tuning whatsoever and r^2 goes over 75% with rake tuning:

    In order to protest that OBSERVATION, they need to assert violation of LAWS of:
    A. large numbers &/or
    B. conservation of angular momentum

    Of course they would have no problem doing that …implicitly in everything they’ve ever said about sun-climate relations …and I choose to believe that that‘s why they lost the contract!

  17. oldbrew says:

    PV: it’s certainly the case that the Met Office has done its reputation harm by endlessly forecasting long-term warming that never arrives. Bad for credibility which must affect commercial success.

    BBC Denies Climate Sceptics Behind Decision To Ditch Met Office
    ‘A controversial BBC radio programme that questioned the scientific credentials of the Met Office is unlikely to have influenced the broadcaster’s decision to end its nearly 100-year relationship with Britain’s official weather service, it has been claimed.’