Met Office does claiming more extreme

Posted: September 25, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Collecting valid data is hard. Paul Homewood has highlighted a Met Office report for 2014, produced it seems September 2015. If that is true, no rush, get it right.

Image

— From State of the UK climate 2014

ImageFigure 1. Difference between two datasets of more or less the same thing. The red linear trend line is hinting there is dataset drift.

Oh yes definitely more severe weather..

Snag, this is Met Office data against Met Office data.

Image

Figure 2, same using normalised data from another work (modified to use the shorter data). Figure 1 acts as an honesty check, same, same linear trend. (the author knows it ought to work, readers won’t)

A 2 year running standard deviation plots the change in variation.

See how CO2 kicked in January to February 1996, clever lot foreseeing that was going to happen all of a sudden.🙂

What is going on?

The author was very active in embedded systems and instrumentation into industry more than 35 years ago.

Sixteen years later… “Daily automated values used after 1996.”, see link below. This is the reason for so many datasets changing late 1980s onwards. Sure it’s man made. Bally all to do with actual change.

Is that the reason for the change fig 1 or 2? It’s a real candidate. Other evidence points to station network change, a documented change point.

Data
Data

PH article one.

Post by Tim

Comments
  1. I suspect that a lot of the “climate change” detected is due to changes in instrumentation and their proximate, man-made environments.

    Some sleuthing showed a likely upward bias in minimum temperature at a nearby weather station was due to an expansion of man-made ponds for ground-water injection. 2°C uptick in local minimum temperatures.
    https://contrary2belief.wordpress.com/2012/02/05/bom-claims-2011-was-perths-hottest-year-on-record/

  2. Found the link to the comment I made, quoting the WMO (http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2019&cpage=1#comment-38175)

    «The presented typical seasonal cases show that due to non-stationary nature of the air temperature, even for intervals of 10 minutes, there are always differences in the measured values. Based on the experimental results, it can be concluded that even if the metrological characteristics of the classic thermometer and the sensor of AWS are exactly the same, only due to different averaging periods, there can be differences in the measured air temperatures of ±0.4 ⁰C in average. These differences are higher in the moments of sunrise and sunset (about ±1.0 ⁰C) and lower – for the rest of the day. During transition seasons, the differences are lower compared to the summer and winter. Overall, during the night hours, the AWS will measure lower values than the “classic thermometer”, while in the daytime – higher ones.»

  3. tchannon says:

    A vast amount of detail ought to be discussed Bernd. Interest generally is very low.

    You will like what is on the way.

  4. blob says:

    The first time I looked into this climate change issue was after this story:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/science/earth/west-antarctica-warming-faster-than-thought-study-finds.html

    From the supplements of the paper:
    “On 18 January 2011, a new CR1000 datalogger (used to record and disseminate the readings
    from the various AWS sensors) was installed on the Byrd AWS in replacement of the AWS-2B
    electronic system used since 1989.”
    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1671.html

    The paper goes on for pages trying to explain the “the quasi-stepwise increase in Byrd DJF temperature around 1986-1989.”

    Plot the data for yourself and see what happens coincidentally when they swapped the units:
    ftp://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/aws/10min/rdr/

    As if it needs to be said, don’t do yearly averages…