Sea ice waves

Posted: September 29, 2015 by tchannon in sea ice

Since Roger kind of raised the subject

DO01235 do? Not very good as a dataset, never mind, use data some rate. On automatic update system here anyway.

Over the past couple of years most of the daily sea ice data has been removed from public access leaving low grade stuff. How curious.


Drawing straight lines is not good when the data is plainly natural, nature does not do straight. Any of you have examples?

My guess is as good as any and the above is what a tool on automatic spat out, less finer twiddles.

The ripple is ~22 years a la solar magnetic and surface temperature. Exactly what causes this is of course unknown just the same as other non-experimental systems.

Why the shape? Is it sane? Oh yes.

How about turn it upside down and consider say a 10 year or so lag on global temperature, heat flows from the equator to poles.

Now lets turn to something surprisingly few seem to understand.


This plot will be wrong, is illustrative of how an apparent complicated pattern can arise from a trivial cause: two of the very simplest rotating vectors. Oh and these are the ones from the previous plot, all I did was change FS and the origin date.

This is just as valid as drawing straight lines.


The reader is left to read the annotation and figure it.



Note the subtractive from abt year 2000. Why a flat forms. Whether this is how it is cannot be known.

(I notice I’ve used the term mixing, contextually ambiguous, is used in the additive context, mixing is also used to mean a product)

Post by Tim

  1. tallbloke says:

    Betcha the northern ice extent is increasing by 2020.

  2. tchannon says:

    Things point that way unfortunately, fed up with feeling chilly.

    Back when I posted on the variable rain during September I nearly also forecast a likely Indian summer, which we have, didn’t quite have the nerve. The cause is blocking holding off Atlantic systems, this will eventually collapse, autumn gales commence.
    It wouldn’t surprise me if there is a pattern to this, not as random as it might seem.

    The reasoning is the simple way weather makes up for whatever went before. Russia has apparently also had a good September.

    “Moscow’s warm September beats 90-year record
    September 25, 12:56 UTC+3
    The city has not witnessed such a warm September 25 in the entire 140-year history of meteorological records”

  3. Chaeremon says:

    @tchannon said: Drawing straight lines is not good when the data is plainly natural, nature does not do straight. Any of you have examples?
    Sure, from

  4. Tim:

    I saw a graph in Alan Longhurst’s ebook that showed a 22-year period. As I understand it, the connection is via ocean oscillations.

    Sorry I can’t point to the page, but there is a long chapter on Arctic climate which is probably where I saw the reference. Either there or in the chapter on solar variations.

  5. tchannon says:

    Not sure what you mean. I’m aware of David, we’ve spoken in private in the past.

    Whatever he is up to will have to trickle out first.

  6. tchannon says:

    I’d not seen that book, and is available, good, I’ll have a look. Veterans are always offering something to learn.

    A 22y does not appear as such in the satellite based sea ice but does explain a shape match.

  7. Chaeremon says:

    @tchannon, Drawing straight lines cant you see it? It’s just the comparison between nature and nature does not do straight that you asked for.

    What has this to do with Dave, why should there be sort of objection, I see no room for speculations or intentions re. my comment.

  8. oldbrew says:

    ‘The ripple is ~22 years a la solar magnetic and surface temperature. Exactly what causes this is of course unknown just the same as other non-experimental systems’

    One possibility is a relationship to the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet.

    ‘Modulation over a 22-year cosmic ray cycle: On the tilt angles of the heliospheric current sheet’

  9. tchannon says:

    We seem to be crossed up somewhere. 🙂

  10. Jason Calley says:

    Hey Chaeremon! Your graph makes sense to me. Just let me warp the coordinate system and your curved line becomes my straight line — and vice versa.

    Now, if I can only find a way to look into my billfold, cross my eyes, and double my money! 🙂

  11. Chaeremon says:

    @Jason Calley (September 30, 2015 at 6:10 pm) I think you have no transform since mother nature’s radius of Gaussian curvature (Levi-Civita 1977), or something equally usable, was not revealed to you 🙂

    If billfold in English is folded bill, I demand my share 😉

    B.t.w. the diagram is from from, not mine, I posted it for illustration of tchannon’s elegant comparison.

  12. tchannon says:

    Thick is us, I see what you mean. 🙂
    I tend to be too literal.

    Umm… spin ball that was.

  13. ren says:

    Antarctic Situation at 2015 September 28

    Antarctic ozone today: Ozone depletion is now extensive and the ozone hole covers Antarctica. The ozone hole grew rapidly from mid August onwards and is near its largest at some 25 million square kilometres. This is a larger hole than the average of those over the last decade. The ozone distribution is that of mid spring with lowest and still decreasing ozone amounts across the continent, particularly the Atlantic sector, and higher (and increasing) values around the Southern Ocean. Ozone is declining by about 1% per day near the centre of the ozone hole. Values currently range from around 130 DU over West Antarctica to near 400 DU over parts of the Southern Ocean. These highest values are lower than at the same time last year. There are significant differences between the various satellite measurements. Temperatures in the lower part of the ozone layer are below the threshold for Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) formation over much of Antarctica and the area with PSCs is larger than average, but is now decreasing. Through most of the ozone layer temperatures are below the long term average but are beginning to warm and in the higher parts of the ozone layer are above the PSC formation threshold. The polar vortex is near average in size at most levels except the highest and lowest, where it is significantly larger than average.

    The 2015 ozone hole: Ozone hole levels were briefly reached over the Antarctic Peninsula on August 5 with significant depletion beginning in mid August. Depletion became more widespread by September, exceeding the mean for the last decade and greater than in the last couple of years. The polar vortex was the largest over the past decade in the upper part of the ozone layer from July to September and the area with PSCs was also larger than average during this period.

  14. ren says:

    The stratosphere cooled over the winter, with the 100 hPa temperature falling below -80°C. During the first half of August it was around -84°C, a little cooler than the normal. The temperature at this pressure usually begins to rise in early September, but for the last month has been around -83°C and is now 4° below the normal. The mean for June was a little below normal, whilst July was less variable than usual and the second coldest on record. Overall the August temperature was near to the normal, but more variable than usual.