Massive global cooling process discovered as Paris climate deal looms 

Posted: October 1, 2015 by oldbrew in climate, Clouds, Emissions, research, Uncertainty

isoprene1This may sound like a joke but it seems not – it’s all over the usual blogs and sceptic media. Does it put a spanner in the works? This from The Register’s report:

As world leaders get ready to head to Paris for the latest pact on cutting CO2 emissions, it has emerged that there isn’t as much urgency about the matter as had been thought.

A team of top-level atmospheric chemistry boffins from France and Germany say they have identified a new process by which vast amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted into the atmosphere from the sea – a process which was unknown until now, meaning that existing climate models do not take account of it.

The effect of VOCs in the air is to cool the climate down, and thus climate models used today predict more warming than can actually be expected. Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assimilate.

In essence, the new research shows that a key VOC, isoprene, is not only produced by living organisms (for instance plants and trees on land and plankton in the sea) as had previously been assumed. It is also produced in the “microlayer” at the top of the ocean by the action of sunlight on floating chemicals – no life being necessary. And it is produced in this way in very large amounts.

According to an announcement just issued by the German government’s Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research: Atmospheric chemists from France and Germany, however, can now show that isoprene can also be formed without biological sources in the surface film of the oceans by sunlight and so explain the large discrepancy between field measurements and models. The new identified photochemical reaction is therefore important to improve the climate models.

Global models at the moment assume total emissions of isoprene from all sources – trees, plants, plankton, the lot – of around 1.9 megatons per year. But, according to the new research, the newly discovered “abiotic” process releases as much as 3.5 megatons on its own – which “could explain the recent disagreements” between models and reality.

With the discovery of the new abiotic sea process, the idea that cutting carbon emissions may not be all that urgent is looking stronger. That’s probably good news, as it has emerged lately that efforts to cut carbon emissions to date are having the unfortunate side effect of poisoning us all.

Full report: MASSIVE GLOBAL COOLING process discovered as Paris climate deal looms • The Register

  1. The problem with some of the climate models is that they are out of date and the scientists know this. Earlier this year I attended a meeting at Reading and one of the professors said the long-term atmospheric models will, however, greatly improve only after the next generation of climate models.

  2. tallbloke says:

    I found a preprint of the paper

  3. Will Janoschka says:

    tallbloke says: October 1, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    I found a preprint of the paper

    “Field observations have shown isoprene levels up to several hundreds of pptv

    Wow way less than one ppmv. How much ocean surfactants did earthlings dump to fix the BP blowout? Why do the high and mighty academics treat earthlings as mushrooms. ;-(

  4. BLACK PEARL says:

    This will be ignored by the blinkered Climate Clowns

  5. E.M.Smith says:

    One wonders how isoprene production varies with UV spectrum. As UV shifted to longer wavelength, more would be absorbed in the surface and less at depth. But what happens to isoprene?

    Could directly tie cloud formation and albedo to solar change.

  6. p.g.sharrow says:

    Crony capitalists of Wall Street have been using the Federal Government to rob the citizens for a long time. In 1860 a crooked Lawyer from Illinois was elected president and was instrumental in passing a law that forced all commerce to be conducted by Yankee New England traders and be shipped on American ships. The U.S. Navy was used to blockade all ports to prevent foreign ships from docking. The start of the civil war between the southern states and the federal government… pg

  7. p.g.sharrow says:

    Damn posted that in the wrong thread! sorry …pg

  8. Bob Weber says:

    An interesting story but the real deal is the Sun causes warming and cooling with higher/lower sunspot activity – of course I’m preaching to the choir here.

    The massive global cooling process is already underway as the peak of SC24 is long gone, and I don’t care what they say about the El Nino, it’s at this point not so strong (warm)

  9. gymnosperm says:

    Dunno, inorganic isoprene is more interesting in the context of the evolution of life than climate. C’mon, ppt? Whah, must be even stronger than that there Carbun dire oxide!

  10. tallbloke says:

    Hi PG. Repost it on the right one, then I’ll delete this one. Cheers.

  11. AlecM says:

    Yet more Enhanced GHE nonsense!

    The real atmospheric control systems negate the effect of all well mixed GHEs. It’s the way the system works; only water in its various forms is important in the first order effects.

    Second order CO2 effects are influential via biofeedback. These ensure real CO2-AGW is kept very near zero

  12. oldmanK says:

    The problem with models is the fact that they are models, and what’s worse is that most don’t have what it takes to make it.

    I have in mind another model from another blog, that admittedly has been around for more than a century, but had become more dogma than proof.

  13. oldbrew says:

    What Delingpole said about it…

    The news could scarcely have come at a worse time for the global climate alarmist community which has been ramping up the scaremongering message in the run up to the latest round of UN climate talks in Paris this December.

    Everyone from the Pope to the Prince of Wales to the Governor of the Bank of England has been roped into pushing the UN’s alarmist agenda.

    What this new study shows is that in the unlikely event of any agreement being reached on “climate change” by world leaders in Paris, it will do so in defiance of “the Science” and not because of it.

  14. tallbloke says:

    AlecM, isoprene leads to low cloud seeding. Low clouds are water in one of its various forms (with a negative feedback on temp).

  15. dscott says:

    This is on top of under counting trees by a factor of 7, so not only did they mis-figure the CO2 uptake of the biosphere, they under counted the effect of Isoprene cooling the atmosphere. Gross Incompetence! This is what happens when a scam begins to unravel.

  16. Knut Rellsmo says:

    How long shall we live with the Climate Fraud ? Politically administrated science which creates much politics and negligible honest science ?

  17. hunter says:

    The science is settled. hahahahahahaha. Social mania dressed up as science. Political bigotry dressed up as science.

  18. michael hart says:

    Isoprene is ubiquitous in biology, especially the biology of plants and other lower organisms. Atmospheric fluxes are large and probably significant on a planetary scale. For crying out loud, even a human can smell terpenes from trees without venturing into a forest. These sort of studies could, and should, have been performed decades ago.

    That is the opportunity cost of paying an ever increasing number of climate ejits an ever increasing fraction of scarce research-dollars, while real scientists are treated like beggars at the gate.

  19. AlecM says:

    @Tallbloke: thanx for the info: the issue though is that clouds are a dependent parameter in the overall thermodynamic control system, of which biofeedback is part.

    Put it another way: the planet produces the isoprene so that radiation entropy production is minimised.

    The idea that isoprene counters the Enhanced GHE, which does not exist, is absurd.

  20. tallbloke says:

    AlecM, I expect isoprene production increases with temperature. So it’s another negative feedback in a climate system replete with negative feedbacks.