Per Strandberg: ENSO caused by tidal pulses during Perigee and by solar activity

Posted: November 28, 2015 by tallbloke in ENSO, Ocean dynamics, solar system dynamics

My thanks to Per Strandberg for this update on his ENSO modelling effort. This is looking good, and is based on a neural network which uses lunar and solar data for its input.

ENSO-solar-tidal-impact

There are two main drivers of ENSO. ENSO stands for El Niño Southern oscillation and is Earth’s most influential weather phenomena after seasonal changes. When ENSO changes it causes changes in currents and of temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The most important ENSO driver is linked to variations in gravitational tidal forcing associated with Moon’s Perigee. Moon is in what is called Perigee, when the Moon is at it closest point during its elliptical orbit around Earth. This is also when the tidal force caused by the Moon is at its strongest.

The second most important forcing is linked to variation in solar activity.

I have identified these two basic underlining forces for ENSO by creating and utilizing an ANN I’ve built ANN stands for Artificial Neural Network and is a pattern recognition technique and is a form of Artificial Intelligence which is used in many different types of applications. This can be in everything from different types of forecasts, in robotics, data mining and for different kinds of identification.

ENSO-solar-tidal-impact

This is a result I recently got from the ANN that I’m using.
The ENSO value up to and including October 2015 is from MEI ENSO index.
MEI is an acronym for the Multivariate ENSO Index which is an ENSO index complied by NOAA.
In the Calc 12 and 15 graph lines I use training time from 1979 up to the end of 2004.
CALC12 uses as testing period the time between 2005 and up to 2012 and make predictions from 2012 and up to 2020 which includes simulated solar and magnetic data for the this predictive period.
CALC15 use as testing period the time between 2005 and up to 2015 and make predictions from 2015 and up to 2020 which includes simulated solar and magnetic data for the this predictive period.

ENSO-forecast-Oct-2015-2020

Here’s a close up picture over ENSO predictions up to 2020.The ENSO value is for the real MEI value up to and including October 2015.
Note: The weight values inside the ANN are based on a training period which is saved at the point where the testing part reaches its minimal variance error value.

The input values that are used in the neurons use no ENSO data. Only input values from the Perigee gravitational pulse values in the form of a vector size and its angel against the equator, plus Ap, Kp and solar wind data are used.
I think myself that that is very impressive.

I’m not finished with my work to get optimal ENSO predictions. There are still a number of improvements I’m going to make.
One thing I’m going to make is to reduce the overfitting problem with my ANN. The remedy should be simple. Currently I’m saving the weight values when the variance error reaches its minimum at the testing part. Instead I should save the weight values just a bit before the error value reach its minimum. By doing this I should be able to reduce extra statistical noise which is increasingly introduced near the minimal value before the error value start to diverge. In my case however this is not a big problem. The data I use in my ANN response and convergence quite quick and good.

One other thing I’m going to do is use several runs and creating many different predictions. By doing this I’m going to get an ensemble of predictions and by using their mean values I expect better and more robust prediction.

Comments
  1. Jerry says:

    I appreciate your predictions out to 2020. Please show updates, annually or semiannually, comparing ENSO with your current predictions CALC 12 and CALC15. .

  2. Bud Roberts says:

    This is certainly a far better correlation to the real world than anything out of the IPCC models.

  3. nzrobin says:

    I found Per Strandberg’s article very readable and his ANN output seems very good. I wasn’t too excited about his idea of running lots of times and averaging. That reminded me of IPCC technology. I wonder if he has compared notes/shared his modelling with Bob Tisdale?

  4. tchannon says:

    Should that be angle against the equator rather than heavenly entities?
    (as mod I will edit if needed)

    I’m not sure many readers are familiar with NN. I know of but has never been of much interest in the kind of things I do. (not a criticism)

    Do any readers want an explanation?

  5. “I’m not finished with my work to get optimal ENSO predictions. There are still a number of improvements I’m going to make.”

    Have a look at the PDO as a predictor of ENSO.when used with one of the indices.

    I read a paper about ten years ago by a couple of Chinese researchers that claimed more skill from their model when they added the PDO compared to when they did not add the PDO.

    It would be nice if your model could tell us something about the PDO we don’t know, which is a lot.

  6. For Per

    Here is the reference that I mentioned above:

    Chan, Johnny CL, and Wen Zhou. “PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over south China.” Geophysical Research Letters 32, no. 8 (2005).

  7. Per Strandberg,

    Your predictions generally agree with those that I have made [in 2014] about the onset of El Nino Events using the following predictive principle:

    1. El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes.

    2. El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices.

    [N.B. El Nino events by their very nature peak in the Southern Summer and so they almost always straddle the boundary between calendar years]

    Actual dates when line-of-apse aligns with equinoxes
    during current FULL MOON EPOCH [1993-94 to 2024-25]:

    1997.75 – Autumnal equinox_____ 1997- 98 El Nino_____solar minimum 1996.5
    2002.25 – Vernal equinox________2002 – 03 El Nino
    2006.75 – Autumnal equinox______2006 – 07 El Nino
    [2009.00 – Winter Solstice________2009 -10 El Nino]____solar minimum 2008.0
    2011.25 – Vernal Equinox________ No El Nino
    2015.75 – Autumnal Equinox______2015 -16 El Nino
    2020.25 – Vernal Equinox ________2019 – 20 or 2020 – 21 El Nino___solar minimum?
    2024.75 – Autumnal Equinox______2024-25 El Nino

    The pattern shown above seems to suggest that because of the solar minimum in 2008.0, the El Nino event that would have started in 2011 was dragged back to the time when the lunar line-of-apse aligned with the winter solstice in 2009.0, so as to be closer to solar minimum in 2008.0.

    If this pattern persists, then it is possible that the starting date for the 2020-21 El Nino event could be dragged either backwards in time towards 2018.0 [when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the winter solstice] or forward in time towards 2022.75 [when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the summer solstice].

    Given that Cycle 24 will be 12 years old by 2020.0, and weak solar cycles generally last at least 12.0 years or more, that would predict a date for the next solar minimum in the range 2020 – 2021. Hence, the predicted date of solar minimum is close to the 2019-20 or 2020-21 starting date for the El Nino event, so the solar effect may not shift the event away from the equinox alignment in 2020.25.

    Note: It appears that your model predicts an El Nino event starting in 2019 – so it should be interesting to see what actually happens.

  8. E.M.Smith says:

    Nicely done. N.Nets is one of those things I’ve thought of investigating, but never got around toit…

  9. I think that the last solar minimum was more like 2009.0!

  10. Well done, a month or so back I said that I thought the movements in the SOI (based on the atmospheric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin) seemed to show a relationship with the tide height at Darwin. Have not yet got around to an analysis but have collected past, present and predicted tide data and also have downloaded daily SOI and now recording daily, and 30d moving averages of pressures, & SOI. There are indications that the El Nino based on SOI readings is coming to an end. From the graph of monthly SOI the El Nino should be 2014-2015 and not 2015-2016. The SOI turned negative in June 2014 and started to be near -10 or below in Aug 2014. The period indicating an El Nino is in the range 10 to 14 months. As the present length is already at 15 months it has to come to an end before the end of the year, The 1997-1998 period was 14 months and ended very suddenly in June 1998 (similar to what is happening at present Nov 2015)

  11. cementafriend,

    The modern El Nino is not solely based upon the SOI – I use the less stringent definition of the BEST Index or Bivariate EnSo Time-series to search for moderate to strong El Nino events. Hence, during 2014 the current El nino did not meet my adopted requirement for a moderate to strong event.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/

    According to this index, the 2015-2016 El Nino started in February 2015.

    If you are interested, please read my comments at

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_12.html

    to see why I use this index.

  12. Astro, you maybe right but firstly, sea surface temperature records are very doubtful. Even the satellite records are doubtful. The UAH temperatures are based on measurements of microwaves from oxygen in the atmosphere. The diving buoys give an indication of sea temperatures at various levels but they are scattered and there is doubt about the measurement at the surface which has a relation to SWIR, evaporation and near surface turbulence (ie wind and currents) . The records for SOI are extensive in time and have not been disputed.
    Also, one should compare like with like. I have looked at the graph for the SOI in 1997-98 here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=1998, and the graph for 2014-2015 here https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soigraph/index.php?year=2015. The 30d SOI value for November will be close to zero.
    Have not looked if there is a lag between the SOI and temperatures but it is likely. However, it is already clear that the present “El Nino” is not a super “El Nino” like that in 1997-1998.

  13. cementafriend,

    The definition of an El Nino event can be formulated in a number of forms. The SOI Index is the oldest and the simplest instrumental index to record this phenomenon. However, as our knowledge of this phenomenon has grown, climatologists have realized that there are alternative ways in which to parameterize what is going on, that are just as valid, if not more valid, than the SOI index by itself.

    The El Nino/La Nina (or ENSO) phenomenon is a couple oceanic and atmospheric event which is best described by referring to a combination of meteorological variables:

    a) sea-surface and sub-surface temperatures and temperature anomalies e.g. Nino 3.4
    b) thermocline depths
    c) ocean currents
    d) atmospheric pressures and pressure differences e.g. SOI
    e) wind speeds, wind direction and wind shear.

    Solely using the SOI to describe the ENSO phenomenon is a reasonable first approximation of what is taking place but it is by no means the best overall index for following the progression of what is a quiet complex event.

  14. cementafriend,

    Here is the BOM (Australia) assessment of the sub-surface temperature and temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, as on November 22nd.

    “The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 22 November shows temperatures were warmer than average in the top 150 m of the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific and cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the western half. Water in the eastern Pacific sub-surface remains much warmer than average. Compared to two weeks ago, warm anomalies around 150 m depth have strengthened. An area around 75 m depth is more than 7 °C warmer than average.

    Cool anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific remain similar to two weeks ago. Anomalies across much of the western equatorial Pacific sub-surface are more than 2 °C cooler than average.

    The pattern of warm anomalies in the eastern sub-surface and cool anomalies in the west is consistent with a well-established El Niño.

    In the mean 5-day values (upper panel), the thermocline remains almost flat. The thermocline sits around the 20 °C region, and is considered mid-point between the warmer surface waters, and cooler subsurface waters. An almost flat thermocline is typical of strong El Niño events.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-sub%E2%80%93surface

  15. Astro, do not know if you are an Australian but most Australian’s know that BOM is not reliable for any forecast. BOM has admitted they homogenise temperature data. Many have found and proved that they have adjusted temperatures around Australia without adequate reason (look at this site https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/ ). I know they give false rainfall figures. For my area I have daily rainfall data from 1892 (including my own for ten years) from this I can note periods of dry and wet (at present the rainfall is average not dry as supposed in an El Nino nor is it excessively hot). I do better forecasting by looking out of the window, watching the birds and ants.. I have been through droughts with water rationing in three states, I have had bush fires around the house three times, I have been through heat waves, I have been cut off by floods a number of times. I have seen snow in Hobart, Melbourne, the central highlands and the Blue Mountains near Sydney (in fact the snow came into the louvre windows on to my bed one winter), I have been cut off by snow in the Blue Mountains not long ago and had to get home to Sydney via Newcastle.
    BOM are supposed to have a super computer to analyse weather data yet they have one of the worst climate models and through their management are one of the loudest alarmists.
    I suggest that you look at the data carefully ( look at how and where it originates), look at real trends, look for unadjusted or raw data. Finally, dismiss any BOM analysis.

  16. cementafriend,

    What you have just said has very little to do with the best way to quantify an El Nino event. I too am wary of BOM and its prognostications. However, this does not change the basic fact that to rely solely on the SOI to describe an El Nino event is (in my opinion) not very wise. If you can not acknowledge this basic point then we will have to agree to differ on how best to investigate El Nino events.

  17. Astro, yes it would be good to have other data sets that could support a particular climate assessment. However, there is no continuous definite set of sea surface temperature. Kaplan 1998 used filtered ship bucket data from the UK Met Office to give monthly SST anomalies. In 2003 Kaplan et al obtained ship based sea level pressures and filtered these the same way as the SST and then found that the SLP anomalies had a similar pattern so the SST could be used as a proxy for SLP. If I have read the papers correctly the SLP relate well to land based SLP pressure (eg Darwin, Gibraltar, Iceland & Tahiti) but with some error. The ENSO indexes are computer model calculations. They may give a wider indication of SST and the expanse of temperature anomalies but the they could also be giving misleading information. When some so called scientists adjust measurements based on models rather than adjust the models based on measurements then one has to worry about the worth of their work.

  18. gymnosperm says:

    Nino 1+2 appears to be the best predictor of strong ninos. QBO completely sucks at predicting anything until a magical second derivative is applied by Paul Pukite. Sea level is included. It phase matches well but appears more sensitive to ninas.

    Sea level seems the wild card in all this. How does a tidal force pull the water to one side of the planet without reducing it on the other?

  19. “How does a tidal force pull the water to one side of the planet without reducing it on the other?”

    Simple, the lunar tidal forces produce an increased number of convectively-coupled equatorial Kelvin waves in the western Indian ocean that become Pacific Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations that set off a series of westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific ocean that eventually triggers an El Nino event.

    More on this in my upcoming paper.

  20. Hi!
    In my view, Lunar perigee pulses are the somewhat irregular heartbeats that drives ENSO and act as the main engine of ENSO variability. I think that the lunar perigee pulses push the Pacific gyros to either accelerate in their speed or slow down depending on the strength of these pulses and the angle of the pulse vectors against the equator. At perigee the moon’s angular speed is over 14 degrees per day which cause this effect to by transient with a small time window. The result is that the lunar perigee pulses has a very precise and distinct effect on ENSO from one pulse to the next, yet it gives a seemingly chaotic effect over time. By combing the lunar perigee pulse effect with solar variability most of the change of ENSO can be explained.
    I’ve decided to go out with this information and to publish data and calculation related to the lunar perigee pulses so that this goes out into the public domain.

    Jerry says:
    I appreciate your predictions out to 2020. Please show updates, annually or semiannually, comparing ENSO with your current predictions CALC 12 and CALC15.

    Answer: As I said I’m not finished with my ENSO calculation. There are several technical improvements I’m going to make. First when they are made, am I going to make more formal predictions. After that, only time will tell how good those predictions are going to be and only then can proper statistically tests be made.

    nzrobin says:
    I wasn’t too excited about his idea of running lots of times and averaging. That reminded me of IPCC technology. I wonder if he has compared notes/shared his modelling with Bob Tisdale?

    Answer: To create an ensemble and use its mean value from different forecasts is not a weakness it’s just part of the method. There are many sources of noise. I use random seed extensively in my ANN. My solar factors in the forecast is based on randomization with the use of random seeds. There are uncertainties in the MEI values, influence from other weather factors and so on. Which creates extra noise in the forecasts. But, by using an ensemble important part of this noise can be eliminated. I have not talked with Tisdale explaining the lunar perigee pulses with him. I have at occasions communicated with him at the comment sections of WHWT explaining that ENSO is driven by tidal and solar variability.

    Frederick Colbourne says:

    Have a look at the PDO as a predictor of ENSO when used with one of the indices.

    I read a paper about ten years ago by a couple of Chinese researchers that claimed more skill from their model when they added the PDO compared to when they did not add the PDO. It would be nice if your model could tell us something about the PDO we don’t know, which is a lot.

    Answer: My ANN while still hard coded and not well documented is flexible and there are many factors I can study using it. My first priority after finishing with my MEI ENSO investigation is to study other parameters related to ENSO and that includes PDO too.
    Generally, I think that sea current changes driven in part by lunar cycles have been underestimated as global temperature drivers. It takes less energy to move water around that to change temperatures of large volumes of ocean waters by solar radiations or by air temperature variations.

    astroclimateconnection says:
    November 29, 2015 at 3:07 am

    2015.75 – Autumnal Equinox______2015 -16 El Nino
    2020.25 – Vernal Equinox ________2019 – 20 or 2020 – 21 El Nino___solar minimum?
    2024.75 – Autumnal Equinox______2024-25 El Nino
    The pattern shown above seems to suggest that because of the solar minimum in 2008.0, the El Nino event that would have started in 2011 was dragged back to the time when the lunar line-of-apse aligned with the winter solstice in 2009.0, so as to be closer to solar minimum in 2008.0.
    If this pattern persists, then it is possible that the starting date for the 2020-21 El Nino event could be dragged either backwards in time towards 2018.0 [when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the winter solstice] or forward in time towards 2022.75 [when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the summer solstice].
    Given that Cycle 24 will be 12 years old by 2020.0, and weak solar cycles generally last at least 12.0 years or more, that would predict a date for the next solar minimum in the range 2020 – 2021. Hence, the predicted date of solar minimum is close to the 2019-20 or 2020-21 starting date for the El Nino event, so the solar effect may not shift the event away from the equinox alignment in 2020.25.
    Note: It appears that your model predicts an El Nino event starting in 2019 – so it should be interesting to see what actually happens.

    Answer: Your research is in line with my results giving lunar cycles a dominant influence over ENSO. I’m going to include forecast up to 2030. Right now my forecast stops at 2020 so I don’t know when the next El Niño is going to happen.

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