Year or so ago I came up with a way to check out claims of extremes by the Met Office, use their own data but processed in a novel way. This software suit is automated, few clicks, whole thing is recreated from new data.
I’d heard Met Office claim November was set for the hottest ever for England, note the qualification to a region.
The Met Office blog posted this on 27th November 2015. Squealing a few days before month end has become a habit followed by stum. This time? Today is 2nd December, stum.
Warm November on course to equal record in England
27 11 2015
Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.
Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).
The other UK nations have been similarly warm
the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007
Now I’m taking into account annual variation and trying to produce a statistical measure for a value, how extreme.
Broadly the UK was warm, wet, dull. Exceptional, no. Trend, no.
Top 20 rankings follow
Wasn’t that exciting?
Something will happen eventually.
Am I being unfair? Not been a lot of dissent to date.
PDF of results, 5 files in a zip (9MB)
Oh yes, I’m about to release the Synth software open source, is used for part of computing this result (deduces annual).
Post by Tim