November 2015 kind of makes top 20 on warm and wet

Posted: December 3, 2015 by tchannon in alarmism, Analysis, weather

Year or so ago I came up with a way to check out claims of extremes by the Met Office, use their own data but processed in a novel way. This software suit is automated, few clicks, whole thing is recreated from new data.

I’d heard Met Office claim November was set for the hottest ever for England, note the qualification to a region.

The Met Office blog posted this on 27th November 2015. Squealing a few days before month end has become a habit followed by stum. This time? Today is 2nd December, stum.

Warm November on course to equal record in England
27 11 2015

Early provisional statistics* (1- 25 November) show November has been notable for its mild weather.

Overall, temperatures for the UK have been 2.2°C above the November average, with this month on course in England to equal the previous warmest November in 1994 (9.5°C).

The other UK nations have been similarly warm

the mean temperature of 9.2°C in Wales currently the second warmest November on record here – behind 1996 (9.4°C)
the mean temperature of 6.6°C is currently joint third warmest in Scotland – behind 7.7°C in 2011 and 7.5°C in 1994
the mean temperature of 8.0°C in Northern Ireland is currently the fourth warmest on record – behind 8.8°C in 1994, 8.7°C in 2011 and 8.1°C in 2007

Now I’m taking into account annual variation and trying to produce a statistical measure for a value, how extreme.

Broadly the UK was warm, wet, dull. Exceptional, no. Trend, no.

Top 20 rankings follow

Region Rainfall Sunshine Tmin Tmean Tmax
England 12
Wales 14 14=
England_and_Wales 12 19
England_N 16
England_S 10 15
Scotland_W 5
England_NW_and_N_Wales 6 17
Midlands 13= 18
East_Anglia 16=
England_SW_and_S_Wales 7 12
England_SE_and_Central_S 5 12

Wasn’t that exciting?
Something will happen eventually.

Am I being unfair? Not been a lot of dissent to date.

PDF of results, 5 files in a zip (9MB)

Oh yes, I’m about to release the Synth software open source, is used for part of computing this result (deduces annual).

Post by Tim

  1. oldbrew says:

    Probably an element of El Nino in the UK’s mild November?

    Let’s see if we get ‘3 months of storms’…

  2. tchannon says:

    Three months of storms. That’s kind of winter.

    In a way complaining about normal is my point, would be like those on the US east coast complaining about hurricanes in the season, happening January would be unusual.

    El Nino isn’t obviously in historic data. I go more for climatic shifts, possibly a shift back to the state before the unexplained 1980 one. This predates modern data collection and so on, in effect we have little knowledge.

  3. tchannon says:

    The Times, 2nd December 2015, page 4
    “November dullest on record
    by Ben Webster”

    Reporting on words from Reading university where today there is a good meteorological station, historically, probably not, major changes. (I know Reading, unfortunately)
    Spokesman is Dr Roger Brugge.

    “It was the dullest November on
    record, with just 18.4 hours of sunshine
    for the whole month. That is signi-
    cantly less than the previous dullest
    November, in 1962, when there was
    more than 32 hours of sunshine.”

    Cloud cover kept it warm.

    “the third mildest November in
    the past 108 years in Reading”

    In my view this illustrates the wide variation in details between different localities. The area is notoriously dim anyway, Thames valley, inside sufficient hills to make weather.