New earthquake prediction method cites my PRP paper

Posted: December 26, 2015 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Earthquakes, solar system dynamics
Tags: ,

wpid-PRP-Censured.jpgIt’s gratifying to see that our work is being recognised and used internationally for practical purposes. This paper modifies an existing earthquake prediction technique using our fibonacci-planetary-solar theory to obtain more accurate results. This is a poke in the eye for Martin Rasmussen, the chief of Copernicus (the innovative science unpublishers) with the pro-warmist bias, who shut down the PRP journal because we contradicted the IPCC claim of an accelerating warming of the Earth’s climate in the conclusions paper of our special issue. Real scientists use good ideas regardless of whether they regard other aspects of the papers they come from as being ‘politically incorrect’.

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction
A. C. Boucouvalas ; M. Gkasios ; N. T. Tselikas ; G. Drakatos

Proc. SPIE 9535, Third International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2015), 95351A (June 19, 2015); doi:10.1117/12.2192683

Abstract
The FDL (Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas) method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake.

Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using planetary alignment seeds.

© (2015) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

According to Google Scholar, this paper cites my PRP paper:

 

Comments
  1. E.M.Smith says:

    Things that are useful tend to trump PC “forcing”; in time…

  2. rishrac says:

    Is that 3 days after a conjunction? As in a total solar eclipse? I remember an earthquake in Turkey a few years ago after a total solar eclipse, it was 3 days after. I’m wondering about the set up of the eclipse that will occur in Aug of 2017.

  3. tallbloke says:

    The same authors gave a previous paper at the 2014 conference which also cited my 2013 PRP paper; ‘The Hum’:

    Leading time domain seismic precursors
    A. C. Boucouvalas ; M. Gkasios ; A. Keskebes ; N. T. Tselikas
    [+] Author Affiliations
    Proc. SPIE 9229, Second International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2014), 92291H (August 12, 2014); doi:10.1117/12.2066317
    abstract
    The problem of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is threefold. On one hand it is necessary to predict the date and magnitude of an earthquake, and on the other hand the location of the epicenter. In this work after a brief review of the state of earthquake prediction research, we report on a new leading time precursor for determining time onset of earthquake occurrence. We report the linking between earthquakes of the past with those which happen in the future via Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL) numbers. We demonstrate it here with two example seed earthquakes at least 100 years old. Using this leading indicator method we can predict significant earthquake events >6.5R, with good accuracy approximately +- 1 day somewhere in the world. From a single seed we produce at least 100 trials simultaneously of which 50% are correct to +- 1day. The indicator is based on Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL). This result hints that the log periodic FDL numbers are at the root of the understanding of the earthquake mechanism. The theory is based on the assumption that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series. (The mechanism could well be linked to planetary orbits). When future dates are derived from clustering and convergence from previous strong earthquake dates at an FDL time distance, then we have a high probability for an earthquake to occur on that date. We set up a real time system which generates FDL time series from each previous significant earthquake (>7R) and we produce a year to year calendar of high probability earthquake dates. We have tested this over a number of years with considerable success. We have applied this technique for strong (>7R) earthquakes across the globe as well as on a restricted region such as the Greek geographic region where the magnitude is small (>4R-6.5R). In both cases the success of the method is impressive. It is our belief that supplementing this method with other precursors will enhance significantly the prediction of significant earthquakes. © (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

    I could get to like the idea of a holiday/conference in Cyprus…🙂

    I’ve requested a copy of the full paper from the Authors via research gate.

  4. tallbloke says:

    Rishrac: total eclipse (solar or lunar) is a special case where the Earth, Sun and Moon are lined up in the Z axis as well as the X,Y plane. The gravitational force is slightly raised, though I suspect that would be negligible.

    “What changes is that little loop or wobble that has to occur to flip from summer to winter in one hemisphere and the other. Rotational dynamics suggest that at some time one hemisphere would have 2 seasons one declining and increasing in a constant summer mode and the other in a constant winter mode,”

    I’m not following this line of reasoning. The tilt of the Earth keeps the Earth’s axis pointing towards the pole star as it orbits the Sun. So on one side of the Sun the Northern hemisphere is tilted towards the Sun, giving the northern summer season, and half a year later, the southern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, giving austral summer.

    Or do you mean something else?

  5. oldbrew says:

    We’ve said before that Fibonacci and Lucas numbers are very closely related.

    Every Lucas is the sum of and/or difference between two Fibonacci numbers e.g.:
    7 = 5 + 2 or 8 – 1
    11 = 8 + 3 or 13 – 2
    18 = 13 + 5 or 21 – 3
    etc.

  6. rishrac says:

    I do think in x,y,z coordinates. Although slight, in areas where the stress has built up, might that be a cause? A case where the stress has been building for awhile. Of course we could take direct measurements. Or these quakes occur along periods of fibonacci numbers.
    Fibonacci numbers are the best thing since sliced bread.

  7. tallbloke says:

    Rishrac. Crustal stress is a very complex topic I don’t pretend to be an expert on. The Fibonacci series is a special case of a lognormal distribution. Many things in nature conform to it, partly because it’s a natural spread for phenomena being acted on by a force. Partly because it contains a lot of self reinforcing harmonics and resonances. It’s a good puzzle.🙂

  8. Of course, prediction of when and where earthquakes are going to happen is hard. In my research on ENSO and Lunar gravitational pulses I have recently looked into the Pacific equatorial Kelvin Waves which are important drivers for the development of El Niños. I have from that, established that these Kelvin Waves are all triggered by Lunar Perigee pulses.
    I suspect that the global earthquake intensity is increasing during Perigee and especially during Perigee events when the Moon is near full Moon or New Moon. Someone should look into that and see if there is a statistical correlation for that.
    My publication of the ENSO drivers has been delayed due to a hard drive crash on my old Windows XP computer. I haven’t lost any data but I have to spend time analyzing the problem. I have a Windows 10 computer which I’m now using. In the publication I’m going make I’m going to add the recent new evidence I have which links Kelvin Waves to Lunar Perigee pulses.

  9. tallbloke says:

    Per, welcome back and seasons greetings to you. Sorry to hear you’ve had computer trouble. I hope you’ve been following Ian Wilson’s work on perigee impulses, there seems to be a convergence of thinking going on. Good luck with publication, I look forward to reading about your discoveries in more depth than your blog article gives.

  10. oldbrew says:

    From the Sept. 2015 edition of the NCGT journal:
    ‘Kolvankar showed that 98% of over 5000 earthquakes ALWAYS occurred either at 06:00:00 or at 18:00:00 lunar local time, which is very, very different compared to the solar local time, briefly called local time.’

    http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php?action=download&id=149

    See page 259: ‘Just in order to clarify ideas, suppose that the Sun does not exist and that we measure time with respect to the position of the Moon. We state that at every given site the local lunar noon occurs at the time instant when the Moon get its highest elevation above the horizon.

    Then, define every one of the other 24 lunar hours of a lunar day in such a way that every hour corresponds to a movement in azimuth of the Moon position by steps of 15° every hour.

    In this way we have defined the lunar local time.’

  11. tallbloke says:

    OB: ‘Kolvankar showed that 98% of over 5000 earthquakes ALWAYS occurred either at 06:00:00 or at 18:00:00 lunar local time

    That’s amazing if true. A real step forward in earthquake timing prediction.

  12. Curious George says:

    The crustal stress has maxima at 6 and 18 lunar time, and I believe that most quakes occur close to the maximum. Exactly at the maximum .. I don’t buy it.

  13. tchannon says:

    CG, I agree it looks suspect, however, the stress is varying cycle by cycle so I wonder if these times are on rising overall stress? That would be more believable.

  14. rishrac says:

    Somewhere I was in a discussion about nuclear power plants in the central part of the US. I don’t know how many of them could sustain a 7.5 to 8.0 earthquake. That was The New Madrid earthquake beginning in 1811 and continuing on until Feb 7,1812. There were at least 3 shakes greater than 7.0 and one was 7.9. The same earthquakes today would cause an unbelievable amount of damage. I expressed my fear that not one plant would be damaged, but several at the same time. Somebody has to think of these things. The infrastructure would be badly damaged. Roads, bridges, water, trains would be damaged. If there were 2 major events and minor ones, would we have the resources? The logistics are overwhelming. ( and the merchants of fear are worried about climate change?)

    The total solar eclipse occurred in the SH tracking across S. America and continuing into Africa. That was Mar 24,1811. The annual solar eclipse was on Sept 17,1811. I cannot find the eclipse that supposedly happened, I may have it wrong, where either the native American Chief Tecumseh or Red Cloud, was telling the other tribes that if they didn’t join he would be angry and ” blot the sun from the sky and stomp his feet shaking the ground” . Hard evidence would be difficult to ignore. The earthquake definitely happened.

    I’m sure some of you are well aware of the eclipse happening on Mar 9/8 2015 starting in Indonesia. It will be interesting to see what happens.

    Of course I am expressly interested for all of the reasons in this article and comments because of the upcoming solar eclipse in the US in Aug of 2017. Historically, there hasn’t been a major tsunami in the Washington, Oregon area in a very long time. And its been 200 years since the New Madrid earthquake.

    One thing about Fibonacci numbers and events, the causes can be different, but the results are the same.

    Maybe solar eclipses and earthquakes aren’t connected. But they’ve occurred often enough that some us noticed and that needs to be investigated. Not all solar eclipses may be the same. I point to the unusual event with the pendulum in England that drew odd shapes in the sand during an eclipse in the 1950″s.

  15. Brett Keane says:

    Congratulations as well as Seasons Greetings TB. Been a long road, needs an old dog, as we say here on the ‘Shaky Isles’ of NZ…..Could be a game changer, hopefully.

  16. Chaeremon says:

    @tallbloke, wow😎 the abstract says … planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. North or South, I’m quite impressed (that scientists begin to re(-dis-)cover soo old knowledge).

    Fanned and faved; and season greetings from lower saxony🙂

  17. oldbrew says:

    RF Emissions, Types Of Earthquake Precursors:
    Possibly Caused By The Planetary Alignments
    V.G.Kolvankar

    Figure 15: ‘Block diagram illustrates the possible event sequence, which results in an earthquake’
    http://www.igu.in/11-3/4kolvankar.pdf

    The same mechanisms can also apply to volcanoes according to the author.

  18. Michele says:

    Three bits …. new documents (2015)

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EA000030/full

    The analysis of the time distribution of the major earthquakes that occurred in Italy since 1600 reveals that seismicity alternates periods of higher and lower activities over cycles of about 60 years. The same rhythm is present in the eruptive history of the Vesuvius. The large spatial scale of synchronization leads to suppose an external forcing. A hint on its possible origin comes from climatology, where a quasi 60 year cycle is found for various parameters and processes. A hypothesis, also supported by other studies, is that seismicity and volcanism are controlled by cycles of sea level rise. The mechanism could justify similar regularities observed for seismicity in other areas (e.g., cycles of earthquakes in the southern San Andreas Fault, in California) or for strong earthquakes at the global level. The increasing oceanic load of the last century could be coresponsible of the current long-lasting rest of the Vesuvius.

    http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?reload=true&arnumber=7208401&searchWithin=%22Authors%22:.QT.Jusoh,%20M.H..QT.&newsearch=true

    “…The earthquakes were categorized into very shallow earthquakes with epicenter depth less than 35 km and deeper earthquakes with epicenter depth between 35-70 km. For very shallow earthquakes, the analysis shows two interesting features. First, its occurrence rate shows a steady increase during the 40 years period of 1964-2005, with average increase rate about 150/year….”

  19. Michele says:

    https://www.novapublishers.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=54254&osCsid=ca4f22cdac656b28ed24afa348882c8f

    “…Sun inconstancy has the ability to control global climate, that in turn
    acts as a trigger for volcanic activity. Looking for possible Sun-Earth
    connections we analysed the time distribution of eruptions of volcanoes
    located on the northern hemisphere, from the Caribbean Sea to the East
    Mediterranean Sea, with a particular detail on the most active Italian
    volcanoes. The compared analysis between sunspot and volcanic cycles
    suggested that volcanic eruptions are more frequent during minima of
    Sun activity, with about 3 eruptions out of 4 occurring at relative minima
    of the quasi-11 year Sun cycle. Not so evident are the long term
    (centennial time scale) relationships between Sun and volcanic system
    variability: since the former is controlled by much more complex
    mechanisms the analysis of correlations between eruptions and Sun
    activity cannot prescind from geodynamical discriminants, which play a
    fundamental role in driving magma migration toward the Earth‘s surface….”

  20. Michele says:

    Scientific references are numerous …
    An example…

    Historical memory (Tamrazyan 1967-68)
    https://scholar.google.it/scholar?hl=it&q=Tamrazyan&btnG=&lr=

    Forecasting, a Russian group :
    http://www.forecast-center.com/history

    Bye,
    MC

  21. markstoval says:

    Can anyone give an update on the journal “Pattern Recognition in Physics”? Is it still dead? Is there anything out there that replaces it?

    It was always obvious to me that recognition of patterns is the first step in new knowledge. I thought the open source journal was a great idea.

  22. oldbrew says:

    Mark: re ‘Can anyone give an update on the journal “Pattern Recognition in Physics”? Is it still dead? Is there anything out there that replaces it?’

    Not at the moment, but you never know😉

  23. Stenies2012 says:

    The method is being used in earthquakepredict.com

  24. Per Strandberg (@LittleIceAge) said that:
    December 26, 2015 at 5:41 pm

    “In my research on ENSO and Lunar gravitational pulses I have recently looked into the Pacific equatorial Kelvin Waves which are important drivers for the development of El Niños. I have from that, established that these Kelvin Waves are all triggered by Lunar Perigee pulses.”

    Per Strandberg,

    You appear to just be following a lead that is based upon my previous research. All you have done is confirm what I have already established:

    “Wilson [2] has found that the times when Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (PPMJO) are generated in the Western Indian Ocean are related to the phase and declination of the Moon. This finding provides observational evidence to support the hypothesis that the lunar tidal cycles are primarily responsible for the onset of El Nino events.”

    Once this finding is confirmed by further study, it would reasonable to assume that changes in the level of generation of PPMJO’s are related to the changes in the overall level of tidal stress acting upon the equatorial regions of the Earth. A good indicator of the magnitude of these tidal stresses is the peak differential luni-solar tidal force acting across the Earth’s diameter, that is, parallel to the Earth’s equator.”

    [2] Wilson, I.R.G. (2016) Do lunar tides influence the onset of El Nino events via their modulation of Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations?, to be submitted to the The Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/part-b-are-lunar-tides-responsible-for.html

  25. Fast says:

    OB: ‘Kolvankar showed that 98% of over 5000 earthquakes ALWAYS occurred either at 06:00:00 or at 18:00:00 lunar local time
    In solar time, isn’t that just the local rise and set times for the moon?

  26. oldbrew says:

    Fast: see here – oldbrew says:
    December 26, 2015 at 6:43 pm

    ‘We state that at every given site the local lunar noon occurs at the time instant when the Moon get its highest elevation above the horizon.’

  27. tallbloke says:

    Fast: No, because the ‘lunar day’ (as seen from spinning Earth) in their definition of ‘Lunar local time’ is divided into chunks of 15 degrees.

  28. Per Strandberg,

    Sorry to hear that your computer crashed. I hope that you are able to successfully able to transfer your research onto your new computer and get up to speed again. I have a five year old computer that is starting to make noises and so I have to constantly do back ups to protect my research.

    I encourage you to publish your research as soon as you can so that the main stream will see three papers at once (i.e. yours, mine and Paul Purkite’s) all hitting the news stands at roughly the same time. It will take a trifecta of papers to get the “establishment” to pull their eyes off their own navels and notice that the El Ninos are actually being triggered by the Moon.

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