Global cooling ahead: My prediction for 2016 and beyond

Posted: December 31, 2015 by tallbloke in Analysis, climate, Ocean dynamics, solar system dynamics, weather

New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.

sats-from-1995

Fig 1. Global temperature series from the two satellite datasets. The big El nino events in 1998 and 2010 were both followed by downturns. The 2015 El Nino will also be followed by a downturn in temperature.

Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that  we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.

Coupled with the weak solar cycle 24, which won’t have replenished upper ocean heat content like the previous three strong solar cycles, I think we can expect the cooling to continue for some time as a general trend, although there will be short-lived ENSO-positive events of relatively small magnitude along the way. If solar cycles 25 and 26 are as low as we expect from our model, cooling will continue to the mid 2030s, followed by a slight recovery.

salvador-projection

However, if this model, and my estimate of the value at which the oceans neither gain nor lose energy from the sun are correct, they will be losing energy for most of the C21st, just as they gained it for most of the C20th.

Globally speaking, the cooling may be fairly modest, as the energy stored in the ocean by the highly active C20th Sun ameliorates the solar grand minimum we are entering. However, if the polar see-saw swings the other way, and we see the Arctic cooling as the Antarctic warms from its 30 year cooling trend, we could see some bitter winters, late spring frosts and early autumnal cold snaps in the northern hemisphere as time goes on.

Given the dire state of UK power generation capability, I advise talkshoppers and anyone else listening to be prepared for the future with non grid reliant forms of heating and cooking.

Comments
  1. Better, Malaysia has a program called Malaysia My Second Home, open to anyone over 50 and their children, with no known susceptibility to national economic suicide.

  2. tallbloke says:

    The Met-O disagrees with me. The ‘Decadal’ forecast they issued in Jan 2015 that extends to 2020 has a range (with 90% confidence) from no-change to 0.3C hotter. Cooler is not thought likely.

    So the colours are nailed to the masts. Who will be right and who will be wrong?

  3. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    I think we are entering a fascinating period to the end of this decade. Warming has had it’s last hiccup. Incidentally Piers is predicting cooling for the next 20 years.

  4. Richard Mallett says:

    Have you read the little ebook (23 pages, including references) “Natural Climate Pulse, Global Warming – Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found” by David Dilley at
    http://media.wix.com/ugd/857cde_4e48a92c95df433ba869069b1dbcee7d.pdf ? He also uses lunisolar techniques to predict cooling.

  5. oldbrew says:

    ‘Globally speaking, the cooling may be fairly modest’

    Weather expert Joe Bastardi sees it that way too.

    ‘My problem is screaming little ice age when at most a response back to the late 70s is all that can be hoped for given the oceans, will be a big egg on the face of many.’
    http://notrickszone.com/2015/12/30/tremendous-cooling-of-northern-hemisphere-sea-surface-temperatures-sharp-spell-of-global-cooling-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-1069799

  6. TLMango says:

    I completely agree that there will be a cool down.
    My model combines (Frohlich and Lean, 2004 10Be) with (Steinhilber and Beer, 2013 TSI)
    predicting 50 years of gradual cooling.
    This model suggests that the 50 year cooling may be a weak re-occurrence of the Oort minimum.

  7. oldbrew says:

    If these forecasts are on the right track, climate mystics will have to work overtime to explain how CO2 causes cooling instead of warming😉

  8. A. Ames says:

    oldbrew It may have already started. ren pointed out this line of research.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full

    Maybe if we make a few adjustments to the CO2 line width calculations the lower troposphere becomes net cooling?

  9. Jim Steele says:

    Roger is there a link for your model of ocean heat and irradiance provided in detail. I agree qualitatively as paelodata shows Pacific Warm Pool and Sargasso Sea were all about 1C cooler during solar minima. I also think lower irradiance alters the thermal gradient and transport of excess tropical heat poleward.

    Much of the global average has been driven by the ventilation of heat from the Arctic. AS discussed in the Arctic Iris Effect http://landscapesandcycles.net/arctic-iris-effect-and-dansgaard-oeschger-event.html the lack of ice ventilates heat that has accumulated in the past when there was heavier insulating ice cover. I would predict that soon there will be a rapid Arctic sea ice recovery as much of the stored heat has now been ventilated.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Jim, I’ll send you a copy of the model. Here’s the graphical output.

    I agree about the ‘polar iris effect’. On a grander timescale, it may be part of the non-linear Earth response to the 100,000 year orbital eccentricity cycle caused by the gas giant planets.

  11. Paul Vaughan says:

    TB: I noticed your commentary at NoTricksZone. Bastardi sees half of the picture but is absolutely (cannot be sufficiently underscored) blind to the other half of the picture. It’s remarkable to see how totally blind he is to it. I’ve posted a comment there directly challenging Joe. Someone needs to confront him sternly (rather than the usual obsequious behavior that won’t correct anything no matter how totally wrong). We’ll see if Pierre lets the comment through. I’ve discovered a pattern in which types of comments make him nervous by observing when he lets comments through and when he does not. His awareness of aggregation criteria is weak, so I think he struggles to judge (and I observe that he often fails to judge fairly). I would say long-term his instincts are somewhat-improving, but perhaps he’s unduly nervous about what some of his peers think (as JoNova also has been at times). This isn’t a game of nervous consensus though. Bon Courage. Nous sommes pretes. Sapere Aude. TB, you’re a class act set apart by yourself from the league of timid other climate blog hosts.

  12. A C Osborn says:

    oldbrew says:
    December 31, 2015 at 3:29 pm

    If these forecasts are on the right track, climate mystics will have to work overtime to explain how CO2 causes cooling instead of warming😉

    They won’t bother they will just keep adjusting the Temp values to amke them fit their Models, as they have been doing for the last few years.

  13. tom0mason says:

    Well my prediction (as per the Met Office preferred method) is to keep issuing the same as last time — a large volcanic eruption between the lower Pacific and the Antarctic.

    It’s not that I want it to happen it’s just I will then be able to act just like the Met Office and say that my prediction was correct.

    Happy New Year to all! 😆

  14. pyromancer76 says:

    Happy New Year to Tallbloke and crew. I thoroughly enjoy your courageous and fascinating blog. I raise a toast to support for the scientific method as practiced here. Stay warm!

  15. Graeme No.3 says:

    Happy New & not too cold a Year to all readers.

  16. tallbloke says:

    Happy New Year everyone! Here’s to a productive and fun 2016.🙂

  17. craigm350 says:

    Happy New Year to all at the Talkshop and all who comment and lurk. May 2016 bring us further progress and turning of the beaurocratic CAGW juggernaut.

  18. nzrobin says:

    Thanks for all your efforts through 2015 Roger, Tim and Oldbrew. I have enjoyed following along. May 2016 be kind to you, providing health, happiness, prosperity and lots more blogging.

  19. tchannon says:

    Happy New Year everyone.

    Looks from comments as though “May 2016” has significance.🙂

    I hope it does in a good way.

  20. Paul Vaughan says:

    Big improvements?
    Due well before 2016.

    It’s good to see at least small improvements.

    To his credit, Pierre seems to have stopped blocking comments of this nature:
    http://notrickszone.com/2015/12/30/tremendous-cooling-of-northern-hemisphere-sea-surface-temperatures-sharp-spell-of-global-cooling-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-1070197

    ‘Tis the Sun
    The hardest part to figure out was the centennial component.
    The multidecadal part was effortless — zero mystery there.

    It’s was OB’s recent links to the work of Mae-Wan Ho that made me realize the connection of solar cycle length fractional spatiotemporal differintegral geometry with the golden ratio. Simple in hindsight.

  21. Richard111 says:

    And a Happy New Year to tallbloke and co. My knowledge is limited but Look at the SC that gave the 1970’s ice age scare and compare it with the current SC. The Current SC has been far less active and if the next SC is also low, predicted, we are in for lots of cold. Low UV levels do not warm up the seas which eventually cool down. That seems to be happening now. The El Nino is a surface effect. It is the deep sea temperature that effects long term climate.

  22. AlecM says:

    Sorry Roger, but you really must discount the energy absorbed by the Oceans in the 20th Century. This is because the planet has an incredibly efficient cooling mechanism at the Poles. Because local, low absolute humidity is determined by Clausius-Clapeyron equilibrium with ice, the ‘atmospheric IR window’ opens up in many H2O bands over ice and snow.

    This is why on Jan 10 1982, Newport Shropshire had the lowest recorded English temperature of -26.1 deg C. The cause was low humidity; 25 micron and shorter H2O band altitudes coincided with the local Earth’s surface.

    Energy is rapidly going to Space from Antarctic and Arctic as the planet’s PID control system re-equilibrates to give net SW IN = OLR, the main thermodynamic boundary condition being zero mean surface IR absorbed by the atmosphere, minimising radiation entropy production rate. The Enhanced GHE does not exist; the planet ensures near zero Climate Sensitivity for all well-mixed minor GHGs.

    Happy New Year to all!

    PS forget about positive feedback, an artefact of Sagan and Pollock’s 1967 aerosol optical physics’ mistake, to assume a single optical process when there are two. This led to the belief in ‘Global Dimming’ when in fact it’s ‘Global Brightening’, recently (1980s, 1990s) the real AGW!

  23. erl happ says:

    Dear Tallbloke, So pleased to see you are still going strong. We met having been confined to some sort of dungeon in the Svalgaard 7 blog on Climate Audit about five years ago if you can remember that far back. I am re-entering the fray at https://reality348.wordpress.com/
    Since the work of Wallace and Thompson in Washington it has been realized that there are natural, long standing climate change modes that depend upon the polar stratosphere. Ozone is distributed in a ring of enhanced concentration about the polar vortex due to low disassociation rates associated with low sun angles. This pattern accentuates in the winter. Strong gradients in ozone partial pressure across the polar vortex drive the polar arm of the jet stream and shifts of atmospheric mass between high and low latitudes by virtue of ozone’s unparalleled capacity to absorb at 9-10um in the peak of long wave energy emissions from the Earth. Wallace and others, based on sophisticated statistical analysis of the atmosphere began to talk about the ‘Annular Modes’ These are ring like modes of inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variation related to shifts in atmospheric mass to and from the poles….cause unknown. The cause is actually pretty obvious and I explain it in the new blog. Wallace is as good as they get but he seems to have retired at the turn of the century. Dobson, when he began measuring total column ozone and noticed that it mapped surface pressure was very close to discovering the cause of the Annular Modes. De Bort, when he conducted hundreds of balloon flights into the stratosphere over Paris in the 1890’s, another self funded researcher like Dobson, accomplished the ground work when he discovered that the tropopause varied in height with surface pressure.
    The tropics are where the waters of all the oceans assimilate and disparate trends are resolved.
    Cooling of tropical sea surface temperatures is indicated by the departure from trend in the data for those months that are most affected by polar atmospheric processes that drive the ozone content of the upper atmosphere. Nothing happens quickly, either in the natural world or in our understanding of the natural world. Sometimes we fail to see change that is right under our nose. First departures in tropical sea surface temperature data appeared two decades ago for the months January, February and March, under the influence of the Arctic. That change involved a marked flattening of the increasing trend. In the last decade these months set a cooling trend as did the months July through to October where global ozone is under the influence of the Antarctic. The transition months November and December where both the Arctic and the Antarctic are involved also set a cooling trend in the last decade. I expect that the remaining months, April, May, and June will swing to cooling in the coming decade. The rollover is in train. I cover these phenomena in my next post due in a few days but in the meantime, my new blog, just a week old has very few visitors. Please help out.

  24. AlecM says:

    To emphasise the main point of my previous post, increased ice in Antarctica and Greenland is the direct result of extra 20th Century ocean warming.

    The planet self-controls: CO2 will peak at ~450 ppmV as SSTs fall. You easily prove this from palaeoclimate. From the mid-Devonian, Pangea going South created an ice cap. The THC cooled the oceans leading to lower [CO2], a factor of ~10. The mean temperature fall of ~3.5 K was, for an initially cloud-free atmosphere over ~36 deg C SST, equivalent to ~0.85 K CO2 Climate Sensitivity.

    In the mid-Carboniferous, the evolution of bacteria which consumed lignin led to conversion of C to CO2, which dissolved in the oceans. This led to ~17% reduction in sea level atmospheric pressure, to 1 Atm., present level. ~8 K temperature fall was from less Lapse Rate heating of the surface!

    Simples…..:o)

  25. tallbloke says:

    Alec M and Erl, thank you both for your comments, both of which are worthy of their own discussions in separate posts.

    Erl, drop by again to remind us when you post your new article and I’ll reblog the intro, linking over to your new site to push some traffic your way. For now, I’ve reblogged one of the introductory posts.

  26. AlecM says: January 1, 2016 at 10:30 am

    “To emphasise the main point of my previous post, increased ice in Antarctica and Greenland is the direct result of extra 20th Century ocean warming.
    The planet self-controls: CO2 will peak at ~450 ppmV as SSTs fall. You easily prove this from palaeoclimate. From the mid-Devonian, Pangea going South created an ice cap. The THC cooled the oceans leading to lower [CO2], a factor of ~10. The mean temperature fall of ~3.5 K was, for an initially cloud-free atmosphere over ~36 deg C SST, equivalent to ~0.85 K CO2 Climate Sensitivity.
    In the mid-Carboniferous, the evolution of bacteria which consumed lignin led to conversion of C to CO2, which dissolved in the oceans. This led to ~17% reduction in sea level atmospheric pressure, to 1 Atm., present level. ~8 K temperature fall was from less Lapse Rate heating of the surface! Simples….:o). ”

    Very nice, thank you! We learn, one funeral at a time! From the ATMOSPHERic convection, What does it mean? thread:

    ATMOSPHERE I must agree with Roger C. as long as his ‘air’ pertains to the low density compressible fluid with mass retained locally only by the effects of a strong gravitational field! The whole concept of heaviness (weight) of atmosphere is replaced by the stratified triplet of pressure, density, and temperature. The mass of any part of this atmosphere demonstrates no spontaneous tendency to accelerate in the direction of the surface, due to gravitational attractive force! Not sure at all about the Venus CO2 at pressure/temperature above critical! Not willing to go measure either!!!
    Dunno is fine! On this Earth, the primary purpose of ATMOSPHERE is to keep oceans from evaporating!🙂 This was all written up well before day3 when Lockeed/CalTech/JPL had to take over from Generous Dynamics/Aerojet General (low bidder) long long time ago!
    All the best! -will-

  27. tchannon says:

    erl happ, noticed, new blogroll link has been added, you were not forgot anyway. I’d been wondering why you were silent.

  28. markstoval says:

    This is a most interesting post, and the thread has been most informative. Thanks to all who comment here. One can learn a lot of science here and different points of view are welcomed here. Truly the best science site in Europe, if not the planet.

    On the climate by the end of the century, I am more pessimistic than Roger on the earth doing a lot of cooling. The temperature graphs for the Holocene look to be of continued cooling to me.

  29. gbaikie says:

    It seems to me that the pause with continue thru 2016. And will be well in to 2017 or 2018
    before the pause could become statistically measurable as a cooling trend.

  30. ulriclyons says:

    HNY Rog. The only thing I agree with here is your timing of the sunspot maxima of cycles 26-31, they agree fairly closely with my planetary model, which indicates that this solar minimum will be recovering from SC26 onwards.
    I can’t see Arctic cooling happening through the rest of this solar minimum either, low solar increases negative NAO, that generally warms the Arctic. See the AMO during the Gleissberg Minimum in the late 1800’s, a warm AMO, and there was considerable Arctic sea ice reduction around 1816 in the Dalton Minimum according to ships logs.

  31. ulriclyons says:

    markstoval says: “The temperature graphs for the Holocene look to be of continued cooling to me.”

    That’s Greenland, and the really warm bits like around 1200BC were so cold/dry in the mid latitudes that most of the cultures that expanded from 2700BC onwards, collapsed permanently, including the Minoans who that warm spike in GISP around 1200BC is erroneously named after.

  32. tallbloke says:

    HNY Ulric. Good point about NAO. Time will tell.

  33. ulriclyons says:

    That was useful that markstoval posted the GISP series, as it is most central to the almost universal misunderstanding about climate change and the Arctic. Solely because of the assumption that the warm spike in GISP around 1000 AD, is evidence for the MWP in mid latitude regions such as Europe.
    The warmest part of the MWP for Europe was in fact in the 8th century, when GISP is at its second coldest point in the Holocene, after the 8.2kyr event. What a hoot!
    So around 2700-2500 BC where GISP was also very cold, was when city building took off worldwide, and when the Minoans expanded most, as did the Harapan, the Chinese, Peruvians, Egyptians, and European Neolithic culture. They all collapsed around 1200 BC, during one of the coldest-dry periods in the Holocene for the mid latitudes, but one of the warmest on GISP.
    Increased forcing of the climate cools the Arctic region in an inter-glacial climate mode, at all scales, monthly, inter-annual, decadal and centuries.

  34. In proper climatological jargon, the red colored curve of Figure 7 is not a “forecast” but rather is a “projection.” A “forecast” is an example of a proposition but a “projection” is not. Thus, a model that makes “forecasts” is tied to logic while a model that makes “projections” is divorced from logic.

  35. Richard Mallett says:

    So when some of the election results have already been declared, and the pundits make a projection of the final election result based on those, that is divorced from logic ? When the Met Office makes a 30 day wether forecast, that is based on logic ?

  36. catweazle666 says:

    Here’s my three pennorth.

    As I see it there are two major cycles controlling the Earth’s temperature, one of ~1,000 years that is responsible for the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods and their concomitant cold periods such as the Dark Ages which is overlaid by a ~60 year cycle that appears to correlate fairly well with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

    Currently we are in the positive phase of the first of these, warming at this point by ~0.5 °C per century and about half way down the negative phase of the second which started ~2000, as will become increasingly obvious (is already doing so, I suspect) to even the most dedicated AGW alarmist. This will bottom out around 2030 at ~0.2 – 0.3 °C warmer than the temperature in 1970, whereupon it will warm for a further ~30 years and so on.

    Solar effects permitting, of course.

  37. tallbloke says:

    CW: Solar effects permitting, of course.

    This is the big uncertainty. I guess we’ll learn something about how fast Earth loses ocean heat content while Mama Nature conducts this crucial experiment for us.

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