New Year is a traditional time for taking stock, getting rid of old stuff, and planning for the future. The climate advice from the talkshop is; Don’t sell your coat. As the current El Nino falters, we can expect cooler weather ahead for a couple of years from later in 2016.
Ian Wilson correctly forecasted the 2015 El Nino using his lunar technique and I also correctly forecasted it using my solar technique. Our observations of past events tell us is that we are now likely to see a period of cooling, once the current El Nino dies down.
Coupled with the weak solar cycle 24, which won’t have replenished upper ocean heat content like the previous three strong solar cycles, I think we can expect the cooling to continue for some time as a general trend, although there will be short-lived ENSO-positive events of relatively small magnitude along the way. If solar cycles 25 and 26 are as low as we expect from our model, cooling will continue to the mid 2030s, followed by a slight recovery.
However, if this model, and my estimate of the value at which the oceans neither gain nor lose energy from the sun are correct, they will be losing energy for most of the C21st, just as they gained it for most of the C20th.
Globally speaking, the cooling may be fairly modest, as the energy stored in the ocean by the highly active C20th Sun ameliorates the solar grand minimum we are entering. However, if the polar see-saw swings the other way, and we see the Arctic cooling as the Antarctic warms from its 30 year cooling trend, we could see some bitter winters, late spring frosts and early autumnal cold snaps in the northern hemisphere as time goes on.
Given the dire state of UK power generation capability, I advise talkshoppers and anyone else listening to be prepared for the future with non grid reliant forms of heating and cooking.