A very exceptional December

Posted: January 22, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.

An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way[1] with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.

The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)

The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.Image

Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.

We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…

[see 2] video extract of Scaife


Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here

Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.

The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.

There is also the Hadley precipitation series, been updated early this month. This has more interesting results for December.

  • central England since 1870, +0.6, not in top 20
  • east Scotland since 1931, +1.8, not in top 20
  • England and Wales from 1766, +1.6, not in top 20
  • north east England from 1870, +2.6, 12th wettest, curiously the top two 1876 and 1978 are both December figures.
  • northern Ireland from 1931, +2.3, 14th
  • north Scotald from 1931, +2.0, nothing since 2000 in top 20
  • north west England and Wales since 1870, +3.7, 1st
  • south east England since 1870, +0.0, not in top 20
  • Scotland since 1931, +2.8, 3rd
  • south Scotland since 1931, +3, 2nd, November +2.8, 3rd
  • south west England and Wales since 1870, +1.0, not in top 20

In most cases where rain is high it is preceded by lower than normal, weather is making up for this. Looks to me like a late wet season.

PDF of results here

1. Details will be familiar to regular readers.

2. Video for download, 1m 20s of MP4 inside zip, 8MB.

Post by Tim

  1. tchannon says:

    Now that’s posted I can move along one.
    Getting the above article out involved an obstacle course of technical problems, can’t make it up stuff. 🙂

  2. Doesn’t the CET record go back another two centuries?

  3. Michele says:

    Itay december record : -91%
    1st Dryest (period 1800-2015)



  4. tchannon says:

    Bernd, I have tried to explain previously CET is a library work, additionally and critically the information ceased 1973. Later numbers are produced by different people, extending a differently named dataset.
    Meddling goes on, in my book it is data fraud.

    A lot of caution is needed.

    An in preparation article which became ensnared in my health matter is about major errors in modern instrumentation. Some critical information leaked out as a result of the July 1st Heathrow temperature spike. Writing as a design engineer a lot of this is in my field, why I pick up.

    I hope t get something out on this fairly soon.