I don’t do fairy, December was exceptional, call it.
This article was prepared early January then was delayed by circumstances.
An automated system here on demand recomputes Met Office areal data in a unique way with the intent of producing a statistical measure of variation. Data is approximately normalised. Does the same for the Hadley Centre data series.
The results tend to contradict Met Office assertions by their ordinary staff. Shortly before the month end an actual Met Office expert gave a different opinion (misquoted elsewhere afterwards by the BBC), essentially it is weather. Claiming El Nino is global after Scaife in a different BBC interview merely stated some kind of an effect in Europe can be unearthed. (paraphrasing what he meant)
The BBC were in full flood about the sloshing session in a few parts of the UK. The part I saw, part of a much longer section showed some figures, without a full explanation but then Scaife appeared. What he said is I think interesting.
Scaife did not claim unprecedented, merely not like this for a very long time, 100 years.
We are on course for the warmest December in more than 100 years of records and the wettest December for many parts of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and northwest England in more than 100 years…
[see 2] video extract of Scaife
Last 2 years of Met Office areal series from 1910 (or 1929 sun) for 15 UK regional mixes, rain, sun, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax. Processed to z-score by the author, annual cycle removed. PDF of above for zoom/pan here
Weather was warm everywhere. Was not wet in the south.
The primary work produces full time series, five PDF containing full time of all above together with various metrics.
There is also the Hadley precipitation series, been updated early this month. This has more interesting results for December.
- central England since 1870, +0.6, not in top 20
- east Scotland since 1931, +1.8, not in top 20
- England and Wales from 1766, +1.6, not in top 20
- north east England from 1870, +2.6, 12th wettest, curiously the top two 1876 and 1978 are both December figures.
- northern Ireland from 1931, +2.3, 14th
- north Scotald from 1931, +2.0, nothing since 2000 in top 20
- north west England and Wales since 1870, +3.7, 1st
- south east England since 1870, +0.0, not in top 20
- Scotland since 1931, +2.8, 3rd
- south Scotland since 1931, +3, 2nd, November +2.8, 3rd
- south west England and Wales since 1870, +1.0, not in top 20
In most cases where rain is high it is preceded by lower than normal, weather is making up for this. Looks to me like a late wet season.
1. Details will be familiar to regular readers.
2. Video for download, 1m 20s of MP4 inside zip, 8MB.
Post by Tim