We stole the water, December 2015 a very exceptionally DRY month

Posted: January 23, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, Natural Variation, weather

Folks pop in, Michele dropped this one

Red here means dry, Italy according to this provisional data was the dryest since year 1800.



More general plots and information on this link

Would I be overstating to suggest there is a connection between this and northern England sploshing?

Best not try and guess what turns up next, life is like that.

Post by Tim

  1. There’s evidence of the dryness as I watch the women’s downhill in Cortina this morning. Obviously a lot of the warmth has done for the snow at lower levels it still looks like the Dolomites have been pretty dry

  2. Joe Public says:

    But – but – but – we’re told that with global warming, warmer air holds more moisture, and that affected the severity of the north-of-England floods.

  3. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Very dry in Italy. Globally warmed air holds more moisture except when it doesn’t…or maybe it’s that good old jetstream moving again?

  4. Bryan says:

    MET office publication

    “Annual mean precipitation over England and Wales has not changed
    significantly since records began in 1766.”

    Page 12


    The quote continues

    . …..”Seasonal rainfall is highly variable,
    but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter, although
    with little change in the latter over the last 50 years. ”

    Note that

    ‘Although little change in the last 50 years’ refers to the winter period.

    It would make some sense to use worldwide annual precipitation level as an indicator of warming or cooling trends.
    This cannot be done on a one or two year snapshot ….thats just weather.

    However a 30 year trend (climate) would be hard to ignore.

  5. catweazle666 says:

    “However a 30 year trend (climate) would be hard to ignore.”

    As it is around half the length of the ~60 year cycle correlating quite well with the North Atlantic Oscillation, 30 years would be a very poor choice.

  6. Michele says:



    Po River discharges: a preliminary analysis of a 200-year time series

    “….On decadal time scales, discharge variability is found to essentially reflect the changes in precipitation patterns. In particular, peaks of comparable magnitude are found in the 128-month (∼11 years) wavelet spectra of precipitation and discharge….”

  7. Bryan says:

    “However a 30 year trend (climate) would be hard to ignore”

    Hence investigate.

    The recent so called record precipitation in the UK caused me to look up UK trends and I found nothing to be concerned about.
    The UK measurements are quite robust and the historical values can be trusted.
    Keep in mind however that recent practices should be factored in for quoted records.
    A daily rate used to mean 9pm to 9pm next day now it’s any 24 hour period

    .A quick eyeball of this graph does not seem to correlate with an increasing temperature record.

    The planet has been on a natural increase in temperature since 1600AD there is little evidence here of a dramatic CO2 effect here.
    Instead there is a 60 t0 70 year fairly rough oscillation.