Potsdam Climate Fraudsters Exposed by New Monsoon Study

Posted: January 28, 2016 by tallbloke in Accountability, alarmism, climate, Critique, Incompetence, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics
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Chapter-9-Cartoon-CaptionH/T to Josh for this story from the Calcutta Telegraph.

New Delhi, Jan. 26:
India’s monsoon is in no danger of catastrophic collapse in response to global warming and air pollution, two atmospheric scientists said today, refuting earlier predictions that the monsoon could shut down within 100 years.

The scientists at Yale University in the US who used computers to model the Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans have found that the expected changes in the monsoon will not abruptly alter their strength or their water volume.

Their results contradict earlier forecasts by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany portending frequent and severe failures and even a breakdown of the monsoon, which is critical to India’s food, water resources and economy.

“Our models show that monsoon rainfall will change smoothly in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, air pollution, and changes in land use,” William Boos, an associate professor at Yale University told

“We should expect changes in the monsoon rainfall in response to changes in the global mean temperature in the coming decades, but there is no reason to expect those changes to be abrupt,” Boos said.

The earlier modelling exercises had predicted that the monsoon, under the influence of global warming and air pollution, would experience a “tipping point” that would lead to a sharp drop in rainfall over India.

Boos and his colleague Trude Storelvmo have now shown that the theory and models that were used to predict such “tipping points” had omitted a key term in climate behaviour, ignoring the fact that air cools as it rises in the atmosphere.

A decade ago, a study by Potsdam Institute researchers suggested that increasing air pollution and forest loss could lead to a sharp reduction in rainfall within a span of decades. And three years ago, another study from the Potsdam Institute predicted a 40 to 70 per cent reduction in rainfall.

The scientists described their results this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a US research journal.

Read the rest here

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Time for Potsdam to move swiftly along to the next phoney climate alarm.

  2. tallbloke says:

    “models that were used to predict such “tipping points” had omitted a key term in climate behaviour, ignoring the fact that air cools as it rises in the atmosphere.”

    But but, we’re always told that the climate ‘scientists’ use ‘well coupled radiative convective models’. How do you “omit” the lapse rate in any coupled model?

    No wonder they don’t like Ned and Karl’s work.

  3. E.M.Smith says:

    How can you omit the lapse rate at all?!

    It IS a central feature of the air, taught to every weather forcaster, pilot, mountaineer, etc etc…

  4. michael hart says:

    OK, it’s just another climate model, so no guesses about my opinion there.
    But yeah, how is that conceivable?. Is there a spelling mistake? It would be about the same as if they forgot to put oceans into the model.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Did they put any cloud data in, or just rely on some parameters?

    From a recent El Nino study of climate models:
    ‘They suggest their findings indicate that all future climate models include cloud data so that they can offer a better representation of real events, and thus, give better predictions.’
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/01/06/modellers-of-el-nino-events-get-cloud-data-surprise/

  6. […] en bedrager som hovedforfatter, grove feil med statistikken, medforfatter som ikke er kjent for høykvalitets forskning (Stefan Rahmstorf), sirkelargumentasjon – samt fagfellevurdering i et såkalt velrenommert […]

  7. Curious George says:

    Climastrologists can predict what monsoons will be like in 100 years, but not what the weather will be like in 100 hours. When they get a reliable 100 day forecast, I will be inclined to trust them.

  8. Ed says:

    We must not forget that the failure of the Indian monsoon is a terrible event with widespread death and misery.
    Any efforts to identify and mitigate the risks of an Indian monsoon failure are a worthwhile cause for humanity.
    Ian Wilson has pointed us to a possible upcoming risk and we should be alert and aware.
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/search?q=monsoon

  9. oldmanK says:

    And so another model bites the dust. So much for the reliability of models.

  10. ivan says:

    oldmanK, that is to be expected since non of the models used by the climate change religion have been validated and are therefore not worth the computer disk space they take up.

  11. Don Keiller says:

    This goes beyond incompetence.
    These Potsdam “scientists” are fraudsters and charlatans.

  12. oldbrew says:

    West Antarctic Fraud
    Posted on February 2, 2016 by tonyheller

    ‘Climate experts say that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is collapsing because of your SUV, but they have known for 40 years that whatever is going on there has nothing to do with climate’
    http://realclimatescience.com/2016/02/west-antarctic-fraud/

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