MET Office soothsayers make a fuzzy prediction

Posted: January 31, 2016 by tallbloke in climate, pause, propaganda, Temperature


The new ‘decadal’ forecast, for the next four years, has been put out by the MET-O.


I note that the MET-O makes no central estimate for this forecast. I’ve annotated their plot with a couple of guidelines and a rough estimate of the warming they expect by 2020.

There is no pause to be seen. Instead, this ‘decadal’ forecast (of four years duration) foresees a strong warming of around 0.25C by 2020. Given the current solar quiet in the start of the decline of cycle 24, it’s a brave call.

The rest of their spiel is here.

  1. Stephen Richards says:

    There is a fine line betwixt brave and stupid. I fancy they are on the stupid side with a tendency tp adjust the line in either direction as necessary

  2. oldbrew says:

    ‘The rest of their spiel is here.’

    The word ‘satellite’ appears precisely zero times :/

  3. ivan says:

    Have they forgotten that the world wide web never forgets and they are very likely to be called to account when their prediction falls flat.

  4. markstoval says:

    ” … and they are very likely to be called to account when their prediction falls flat.”

    Who has ever lost their job, position, grants, and so on — much the less gone to jail based on being “called to account”??? Who has been called a traitor to the common man for demanding the dismantling of our industrial society based on bald faced lies and distortions?

    By the way, where are the damned physicists who know that CO2 could not do what the alarmists say? They are keeping their heads down an sucking up their grant money like everyone else.

    The “big science” funded by the various governments is nothing short of fraud by committee. Group think mindlessness.

  5. catweazle666 says:

    That’s what the Met Orifice says, is it.

    Oh dear…

    I’d better lay in a good supply of logs for the woodburner and make sure I’m up to speed on wooly socks in that case.

  6. tom0mason says:

    IMO the sooner the taxpayers stops paying for this ridiculous Office the better.
    Are not commercial weather forecasting companies just as good (often better) that this motley crew?
    Can they give an consistently accurate 10 day forecast? No!
    Can they give an consistently accurate 5 day forecast? No!
    Can they give an consistently accurate 3 day forecast? No!
    When they can give an independently audited forecasts that are correct 95% of the time for all 5 parameters [Barometric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, air temperature, Rel. Humidity — all within 5% of actual measurements] for any Met Office site of their choosing for 2 days hence and for a period of 3 consecutive days of each hour’s records, then they can truly call themselves weather forecasters. Till then they are just as bad as the everyone else, except they are very, very expensive to the taxpayers.
    They appear more concerned with getting the climate propaganda message out than improving their ability to weather forecast. As for their climate forecasting it is mere alarmist guesswork draped with a obscuring veil of scientism!

    It’s about time the useless Met Office was sold-off, and the overtaxed public relieved of this expensive propagandizing burden!

  7. “a strong warming of around 0.25C by 2020”

    It is more than likely we will see cooling (particularly this year with the end of El Nino).

    So it seems within four years it’ll be absolutely certain they are a bunch of charlatans.

  8. tallbloke says:

    Tricky one this. The current El Nino has peaked and there will be a drop in global temperature. But we don’t know how long this unusual solar cycle will be or how shallow its downslope. My hypothesis is that the ocean releases energy when the Sun goes quiet. So we could see another El Nino halfway down the downslope in around 2018/19. This will raise air temperatures, but diminish ocean heat content, since the Sunspot count will be below 40SSN by then. So it might be that the more serious cooldown doesn’t occur until after the next El Nino.

  9. ren says:

    Galactic radiation is close to the level of 2007.