Climate Model Predictions On Rain And Drought Wrong, Study Finds 

Posted: April 7, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, modelling, predictions, research
Tags:

credit: b3regions.eu

credit: b3regions.eu


Try not to be too surprised. The research recommends everyone to ‘place recent and predicted rainfall-pattern changes in a millennium-long context.’
H/T GWPF

Predictions that a warmer ­climate will lead to more rain for some but longer droughts for others might be wrong, according to a study of 12 centuries worth of data. The study, published today in science journal Nature, found there was no difference between 20th-century rainfall patterns and those in the pre-­industrial era.

The findings are at odds with earlier studies suggesting climate­ change causes dry areas to become drier and wet areas to become wetter.

Fredrik Ljungqvist and colleagues at Stockholm University analysed previously published records of rain, drought, tree rings, marine sediment and ice cores, each spanning at least the past millennium across the northern hemisphere.

They found that the 9th to 11th and the 20th centuries were comparatively wet and the 12th to 19th centuries were drier, a finding that generally accords with earlier model simulations covering the years 850 to 2005. However, their reconstruction “does not support the tendency in simulations of the 20th century for wet regions to get wetter and dry regions to get drier in a warmer climate”.

“Our reconstruction reveals that prominent seesaw patterns of alternating moisture regimes observed in instrumental data across the Mediterranean, western USA and China have operated consistently over the past 12 centuries,” the paper says.

The research also highlights the importance of using palaeo­climate data to place recent and predicted rainfall-pattern changes in a millennium-long context, the report says.

Source: Climate Model Predictions On Rain And Drought Wrong, Study Finds | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Climate models can and do go wrong.

    ‘It was announced last week that the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model, commonly known as CFSv2 and run by a division of the U.S. government, had accumulated an error that was massively skewing the results.’
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-lanina-braun-idUSKCN0X215F

  2. ivan says:

    Well, well, climate scientists and their models getting it wrong again – predictable.

  3. Oldmank says:

    Oldbrew said “Might need a few of these while the French are dithering “.

    Well, not so easy. They seem like an easy answer but one needs to match voltage and frequency at the output besides the fuel handling at the input. Quite a headache for a few MW.

  4. oldbrew says:

    OldmanK: The salesman says ‘The TM2500+ gas turbine packages – also known as power plants on wheels – can be installed in as little as two weeks.’

    Of course ‘as little as two weeks’ is not exactly the same as ‘two weeks’.
    Btw these comments should be on the Hinkley thread😦

  5. […] Source: Climate Model Predictions On Rain And Drought Wrong, Study Finds  | Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  6. Bitter&twisted says:

    Well whoda thought it?

  7. oldbrew says:

    So ‘prominent seesaw patterns…have operated consistently over the past 12 centuries’.

    Sounds like natural climate change.

  8. suricat says:

    oldbrew says: April 8, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    “Sounds like natural climate change.”

    I concur oldbrew. ‘Climate models’ don’t posses the diversity of observation, or definition/resolution, to provide a realistic ‘outcome’ for climate per se. They’re ‘weather prediction’ devices!

    Can a ‘Climate Model’ predict that the Himalayan Mountains would change ‘the global circulation’ to the extent that the, once fertile region of the ‘Sahara’, would become a ‘dessert’ region? I think not!

    More computation accuracy please (models only provide results for the progamme that was written into them).🙂

    Best regards, Ray.

  9. oldbrew says:

    ‘The research also highlights the importance of using palaeo­climate data to place recent and predicted rainfall-pattern changes in a millennium-long context’

    Until climate models do that we’ll know at least one reason why they fail to match reality.

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