Figure 1, Met Office Hadley monthly rainfall series for England and Wales start date 1766. Winter 2015/16 was wet but ordinary. (data processing by the author, see previous articles)
Plots for all data series as PDF (2MB).
Some other parts / regions of the country do show an extreme but this adds weight to the flicker noise (or 1/f) hypothosis for weather noise.
If independent flicker noise sources are averaged or say weather over a large area are averaged the result tends to Gaussian noise. This for weather agrees with the hypothosis.
Similarly flicker noise tends to local extremes, as we see rainfall extremes, tend to very local and rare for an exact location.
The 1910 Met Office areal data is also available plotted for March. Can now see the winter spike as a spike.
Winter 2015/16 in most cases has as strong positive correlation between rainfall and temperature, a nice instance of warm wet south westerly airflow smothering cold and dry, hence the warm wet winter.
1. Some months during meteorological winter
Figure 2, an illustrative example using one region of the warm /wet and cold /dry effect in the data. In this case December 1934 is an extreme.
Figure 3, from Meteorological Office report 1935 for December 1934.
If anyone wants to explore the data, such as for other regions, I can supply the files. (would be text csv in a zip)
Post by Tim,
I’m briefly around.