Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle

Posted: April 16, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, Cycles, Natural Variation, Temperature
Tags:

Credit: NASA - GISS

Credit: NASA – GISS


There have been many studies reporting climate cycles with a frequency in the 60-year range, and another one has just arrived.

Two things to consider are the general idea of the existence of such a cycle, which has often been proposed, and the prediction that we are entering (to quote the paper abstract) the ‘declining phase’ of it .

From the Abstract:

Time series of sea-level rise are fitted by a sinusoid of period ~ 60 years, confirming the cycle reported for the global mean temperature of the earth. This cycle appears in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The last maximum of the sinusoid coincides with the temperature plateau observed since the end of the 20th century. The onset of declining phase of AMO, the recent excess of the global sea ice area anomaly and the negative slope of global mean temperature measured by satellite from 2002 to 2015, all these indicators sign for the onset of the declining phase of the 60-year cycle.

Full abstract: Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle
H/T Chaeremon [Talkshop commenter]

For a round-up of some other studies related to apparent 60-year cycles (but not necessarily linked to sea levels) see:
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    AMO discussion here: ‘The Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the world’s weather’
    http://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-is-entering-a-cool-phase-that-will-change-the-worlds-weather-42497

    The article refers to this paper:
    ‘Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations’
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v521/n7553/full/nature14491.html

  2. oldbrew says:

    ‘NASA’s TOPEX/Poseidon satellite confirms that overturning in the North Atlantic Ocean–a process where surface water sinks and deep water rises due to varying water densities–speeds up and slows down by 20 to 30 percent over 12- to 14-year cycles.’
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20040812/

  3. ren says:

    The last long geomagnetic storm could cause movement of the earth’s crust.
    Strong shallow earthquakes in Japan and Ecuador.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Earlier Talkshop post on 60-year AMOC:

    Delayed Oscillator model suggests NAO forces AMOC/AMO on a 60 year cycle
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/delayed-oscillator-model-suggests-nao-forces-amocamo-on-a-60-year-cycle/

  5. peterjfharris says:

    Atlantic now cooling as the AMO begins to bite : 2-15 PM – -Atlantic Ocean showing signs of a significant long-term shift in temperatures from wa ..
    but there is more to say. Coincident with AMO cooling so is TSI waning fast offering the strong possibility of multi decadal cooling through 2025.
    My brief study here: https://app.box.com/s/xk5knr3tb4o7qhyy90elaefmvo11ws1q.
    Participants in COP 21 made costly pledges based on the discredited modeled CO2 sensitivity.
    Was the possibility of long term damaging Solar cooling disclosed?
    Peter

  6. oldbrew says:

    Peter: that’s broadly what solar physicist Abdussamatov is expecting.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/new-paper-predicts-another-little-ice.html

  7. peterjfharris says:

    Thanks Oldbrew. I had not read that paper, but I have addressed some issues not covered by Abdussamatov and some more recent developments.

    1. The hiatus was most likely caused by the unprecedented number of significant volcanic emissions in the period 1994-2002 coincident with the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) and identified in my fig. 2.which shows how T has slumped below the prevailing correlation with TSI. The history of volcanism since 1886 is summarised here;https://app.box.com/s/zspfkkq55t5ktcfvf0wyxq9d69bwf7fo

    2. Since his 2013 paper although we have seen the hiatus there has been no significant decline to follow the decline in TSI from the GSM despite the cooling effect of the volcanic emissions suggesting that climate is not Solar driven, which from my POV is untenable.

    3. I have allowed a nominal 6 year lag in T response which fits the TSI trajectory and strongly suggests that the decline is now imminent delayed only by the present El Nino.

    4. Effective this year the Atlantic is cooling coincident with AMO entering the cold phase.as it did in 1900 and 1960 shown here: : https://app.box.com/s/8i8yjzv2s741xg9jg8hgk29v1u3za0ss
    The correlated effect on global T shown here: https://app.box.com/s/0ttxyjj4ng8mxwuhkkarttabmwc0qb3s

    Thus we have the two coincident multi decadal Solar oscillations previously strongly correlated with colder climate and the Atlantic has started cooling as shown here :2-15 PM – -Atlantic Ocean showing signs of a significant long-term shift in temperatures from wa
    Further SC 24 will continue to wane to 2020 and SC 25 commencing in 2020 is predicted by Hathaway for NASA to be one of the weakest in centuries,
    Abdussamatov has been one of the pioneers in this field, now I think his work is about to realize full effect.
    Without wishing to over emphasis quite frankly I believe we are at the threshold of a new climate paradigm and face potentially damaging long term cooling. I would like to get the message circulated as widely as possible.
    Regards
    Peter
    retired Engineer

  8. oldbrew says:

    The acid test for man-made global warming theory could be coming in the next 5-15 years, as Peter implies and others have also theorised along similar lines.

    Natural forces will either demonstrate their power or they won’t. Beware (more) data distortion along the way😉

  9. peterjfharris says:

    AMO VS TSI ON GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
    Global Temperature has been correlated in a number of studies with both TSI and independently with different phases of the AMO.
    Taking a closer look at the relative effect on climate of the AMO and TSI produced a surprising result. The following chart shows how the phase relationship between the two systems appears to favour the impact of the AMO over the effect of TSI:

    PLEASE INSERT CHART FROM https://app.box.com/s/fv5wnobp7svpeowo7yjs92ldf4rsaboq

    (I could’t figure out how to post the chart! )

    Rising AMO and TSI combined have contributed to recovery from the Dalton Minimum after 1830, then both series decline in phase contributing to the temperature decline from 1880 to 1910. After 1910 again AMO and TSI rising together in phase contribute to rising temperature which peaks near 1940.
    From 1940 temperatures decline following the declining AMO which over powers peak TSI and the Grand Solar Maximum suggesting that global temperatures would have been much higher without the cooling phase of the AMO. After 1980 although TSI is declining temperatures again rise following the AMO up to 1998 when a hiatus ensues as the AMO achieves peak in the warm phase.
    The warming period up to the hiatus when rising temperature was arrested has been attributed to the accelerated growth of GHG. This period from 1991 to 2002 was also characterised by an unprecedented number of volcanic emissions when 13 different significant volcanic events were recorded which contributed to the arrest in warming but also released volumes of additional GHG. It is possible that the net effect of these emissions may have caused the hiatus at the time when the AMO had peaked and was no longer rising and when TSI had entered the continued steep decline.
    Effective from 2016 the AMO also has commenced to decline now in phase with TSI and cooling has commenced in the Atlantic. Global temperature temporarily affected by an extreme El Nino the ensuing period will test the validity of GHG warming. As the AMO and TSI decline together in phase the history predicts a global temperature decline.
    The present decline from peak TSI at the Grand Solar Maximum in 1960 is unprecedented in the recorded history since 1700AD and is predicted by NASA to continue beyond 2025AD. The possibility that global temperature may respond as in the correlated history is a cause for considerable concern.
    Continued warming would confirm the probability of anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming, a more favourable result.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Thanks Peter. The chart has been imported to the website and added to your comments.

  11. peterjfharris says:

    Thanks oldbrew. I have made some more progress today to refine the timing of an expected temperature decline based on the phase relationship between the AMO and TSI as follows:

    SOLAR ORBIT OSCILLATIONS MODULATE TSI. TSI AND THE AMO MODULATE CLIMATE

    please refer to the short article here:

    https://app.box.com/s/p9t6igoee9ktu91h30yny6mhpkfhz85a

    Apologies again but how to import diagrams ??

    Regards
    Peter

    .

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