Posted: May 14, 2016 by tallbloke in solar system dynamics

Erl Happ looks at Solar-Geomagnetic effects on ozone and weather.



Source of data here.

Ozone is a greenhouse gas that absorbs radiant energy from the Earth at 9-10 um heating the air. It accumulates in the winter hemisphere. However, directly over the Antarctic continent the descent of very cold, dense, ozone deficient air from the mesosphere is promoted by increased surface pressure in winter. The resulting difference in air density either side of about 60-70° of latitude intensifies the circulation of the air by promoting the formation of polar cyclones that have their origin in the ‘weather-sphere’ where differences in air density between 300 hPa and 50 hPa create upper level troughs that propagate to the surface.

The term NOx refers to the mono nitrogen compounds of nitrogen, NO and NO2. NOx is abundant in the troposphere and less so in the mesosphere. Where it is introduced to the stratosphere, NOx catalytically destroys ozone.

The depression in surface pressure…

View original post 4,055 more words

  1. Richard111 says:

    And again this layman gets lost.

    “Ozone is a greenhouse gas that absorbs radiant energy from the Earth at 9-10 um heating the air.”

    I can accept this claim for when the sun is below the horizon as this fits slap in the “window”, but what is the effect when the sun is up?

    I understand ozone is created by UV sunlight. UV sunlight has a marked effect on ocean warming.

    Have the energy exchange levels been worked out to confirm ozone is a “greenhouse gas” and NOT A COOLANT?

  2. erl happ says:

    Richard, Before you spout again in such disparaging terms I would ask you to consider this: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2016/03/26/17-why-is-the-stratosphere-warm/

  3. ren says:

    Energetic particles from the Sun enter (precipitate into) the Earth’s atmosphere. These precipitating particles are mostly electrons and protons. During large precipitation events, the particles can ionise and dissociate the neutral gases in significant amounts and disturb the chemical balance of the middle atmosphere. In chemical reactions between the neutral and ionic gas constituents, the products of impact ionisation and dissociation processes are converted to important minor species, such as NO and OH. These minor components may affect the ozone balance of the atmosphere because they can destroy ozone in a catalytic chemical reaction chains. Ozone is a key constituent for the thermal balance and UV radiation absorption characteristics of the atmosphere. Therefore, if the particle events affect ozone, they can also affect the atmosphere as a whole all the way down to ground level.

    Growing concern about global change and the existence of an anthropogenic component in climate variability challenge our scientific understanding of the atmosphere. Still today we are lacking exact knowledge on to what extent the solar variability is causing natural variations in Earth’s atmosphere. We need to know how important the different variable energy inputs into the atmosphere from above are to lower altitudes, and ultimately how a strong solar variability signal can be propagated into climate data. Solar proton precipitation at polar cap areas, auroral electron precipitation at the auroral zone, relativistic electron precipitation at auroral and sub-auroral latitudes, variable cosmic ray ionisation and solar extreme ultraviolet and X-radiation are ionising energy inputs to the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). They all show large variations on different time scales, causing changes in the ion and neutral composition in the MLT region. During extreme ionisation events, direct effects in the stratosphere can be seen. Since ozone plays a major role in determining the temperature profile of the atmosphere it is important to know quantitatively the share of all natural processes affecting its concentration. We are investigating how the thermospheric and mesospheric excess ionisation processes affect the composition and dynamics of the stratosphere. We aim to quantify the production of odd nitrogen (NOx) and calculate the transport of long-lived NOx in polar night conditions, so that we can finally resolve the consequent variations in stratospheric ozone.


  4. Sören F says:

    Interesting – maybe erl, ren, or both, could comment on the other’s project?

  5. ren says:

    Erl describes very well the changes in ozone. Belongs noted that changes in solar activity causes a change of ionization at different latitudes and different heights atmosphere.
    Solar activity in the form of energetic particle precipitation (driven by geomagnetic activity) is known to impact the
    chemical balance of the middle atmosphere. With many of the chemical changes now being relatively well
    understood, recent model studies have suggested a further impact on atmospheric dynamics via chemical-dynamical
    Model simulations (Rozanov et al., 2005; Baumgaertner et al., 2011) indicated towards a link from the initial
    chemical changes to modulation of polar surface temperatures during the Northern Hemisphere winter months.
    Seppälä et al. (2009) investigated surface temperatures from re-analysis and found signals similar to those predicted
    by the model simulations (Figure below). To better understand the role of wave-mean flow interaction in linking
    geomagnetic activity to surface level changes, we
    analysed stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures
    together with Eliassen-Palm fluxes for times of high
    and low geomagnetic activity.

  6. ren says:

    Zonal wind anomalies, in 2009 and 2015.

  7. The Trouble with Ozone, Sallie Baliunas

    Is the Ozone Layer Threatened? Sallie Baliunas



  8. ren says:

    It is worth remembering that the ionization in the upper atmosphere precipitated free oxygen and free nitrogen. Therefore, more nitrogen oxides.

  9. ren says:

    During geomagnetic storms occur precipitation of electrons during low solar activity galactic protons that produce secondary particles.

  10. ren says:

    Seppal¨ a et al. ¨ (2009) used reanalysis data to show that winter
    surface air temperatures divided up in years of low and high
    geomagnetic activity show significant temperature anomalies
    similar to NAM patterns found at high latitudes. Here, we
    have shown that this effect is also found in a 44-year transient
    simulation that used the Ap index to parametrise geomagnetic
    activity and associated NOx production in the middle
    and upper atmosphere through particle precipitation. In
    order to avoid aliasing from sea surface temperatures (SST)
    and other boundary conditions present in the transient simulation,
    two additional nine-year simulations were performed,
    where the boundary conditions were repeated on a yearly basis.
    The only difference between the two simulations was that
    geomagnetic activity related NOx production was switched
    on in one simulation, thus allowing us to identify purely NOx
    induced effects. Again, similar surface temperature patterns
    were found. This indicates that these patterns are indeed related
    to NOx production due to geomagnetic activity. The
    following mechanism was hypothesised from the model results:
    The geomagnetic activity/Energetic Particle Precipitation
    related NOx production leads to ozone depletion in
    the stratosphere. Changes in the radiative budget and subsequently
    of the mean meridional circulation cool the lower
    stratosphere and strengthen the polar vortex. Associated positive
    NAM anomalies propagate into the troposphere, where
    typical positive NAM surface pressure and temperature patterns
    occur. Therefore, enhanced geomagnetic activity and
    NOx production appear to trigger positive NAM phases at
    the surface level in the model. Further studies are required
    to confirm these results and the proposed mechanism as the
    findings indicate a stronger link of surface climate to space
    weather than has previously been assumed.

    This is important:
    The geomagnetic activity/Energetic Particle Precipitation
    related NOx production leads to ozone depletion in
    the stratosphere. Changes in the radiative budget and subsequently
    of the mean meridional circulation cool the lower
    stratosphere and strengthen the polar vortex.

  11. ren says:

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983–2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983–2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983–2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.
    A link between solar wind magnetic sector boundary (heliospheric current sheet) crossings by the Earth and the upper-level tropospheric vorticity was discovered in the 1970s. These results have been later confirmed but the proposed mechanisms remain controversial. Extratropical-cyclone tracks obtained from two meteorological reanalysis datasets are used in superposed epoch analysis of time series of solar wind plasma parameters and green coronal emission line intensity. The time series are keyed to times of maximum growth of explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the winter season. The new statistical evidence corroborates the previously published results (Prikryl et al., 2009). This evidence shows that explosive extratropical cyclones tend to occur after arrivals of solar wind disturbances such as high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes when large amplitude magneto-hydrodynamic waves couple to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. These MHD waves modulate Joule heating and/or Lorentz forcing of the high-latitude thermosphere generating medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves that propagate energy upward and downward from auroral zone through the atmosphere. At the tropospheric level, in spite of significantly reduced amplitudes, these gravity waves can provide a lift of unstable air to release the moist symmetric instability thus initiating slantwise convection and forming cloud/precipitation bands. The release of latent heat is known to provide energy for rapid development and intensification of extratropical cyclones.

  12. gallopingcamel says:

    I had my suspicions about McElroy and the Montreal Protocol. It seems that the banning of Freon and similar compounds may have been based on “Junk Science” after all:

  13. erl happ says:

    Soren F. You asked Ren and I to comment on each others work.

    Ren and I are talking the same language. It seems we agree as to the causes of climate change.

    Zonal means “along a latitude circle” or “in the west–east direction”; while meridional means “along a meridian” or “in the north–south direction”.The zonal wind is the high latitude circulation of the air about the pole that introduces mesospheric air into the atmospheric circulation.

    I am focussing on the impacts of a change in the zonal wind as it affects climate at the surface of the Earth via the modulation of the ozone content of the atmosphere. My focus is the atmosphere, the planetary winds, the distribution of energy from the equator towards the poles and cloud cover that regulates the intake of energy into the Earth system. I need to take into account that surface temperature in the ocean depends upon the ocean currents driven by the winds. Above all I have to know the structure and timing of surface temperature change and be able to explain that.

    Ren starts at the level of the zonal wind and looks at the way in which it is modulated by forces external to the Earth necessarily looking at such things as the Earth’s magnetic field, factors determining the ionization of the polar atmosphere and therefore its reaction to the Earth’s magnetic field as a collection of charged particles, the impact of the sun via photolysis that creates states of ionization, the impact of cosmic rays that also ionize the atmosphere and the solar wind that alters the Earth’s magnetic field and the flow of charged particles that entrain the neutrals that are close by, directly affecting the zonal wind.

    Ren’s task is infinitely more complex than mine. It’s plasma physics. My work is related to the simple world of atmospheric density, the flow of the air from one place to the other and the determinants of cloud cover. I have to ‘see’ the atmosphere. He has to look from the atmosphere into space.

  14. ren says:

    Erl thank you for appreciating my observations. I’m not a specialist and a scientist, so I have a lot to learn. Sorry for mistakes.

  15. ren says:

    A new model CRAC:EPII (Cosmic Ray Atmospheric Cascade: Electron Precipitation
    Induced Ionization) is presented. The CRAC:EPII is based on Monte Carlo simulation of
    precipitating electrons propagation and interaction with matter in the Earth atmosphere. It
    explicitly considers energy deposit: ionization, pair production, Compton scattering, generation
    of Bremsstrahlung high energy photons, photo-ionization and annihilation of positrons,
    multiple scattering as physical processes accordingly. The propagation of precipitating electrons
    and their interactions with atmospheric molecules is carried out with the GEANT4
    simulation tool PLANETOCOSMICS code using NRLMSISE 00 atmospheric model. The
    ionization yields is compared with an analytical parametrization for various energies of incident
    precipitating electron, using a flux of mono-energetic particles. A good agreement
    between the two models is achieved. Subsequently, on the basis of balloon-born measured
    spectra of precipitating electrons at 30.10.2002 and 07.01.2004, the ion production rate in the
    middle and upper atmosphere is estimated using the CRAC:EPII model.

  16. ren says:

    Precipitating radiation belt electrons and enhancements
    of mesospheric hydroxyl during 2004–2009
    Monika E. Andersson,1 Pekka T. Verronen,1 Shuhui Wang,2 Craig J. Rodger,3
    Mark A. Clilverd,4 and Bonar R. Carson3
    Received 30 November 2011; revised 3 April 2012; accepted 3 April 2012; published 10 May 2012.
    [1] Energetic particle precipitation leads to enhancement of odd hydrogen (HOx) below
    80 km altitude through water cluster ion chemistry. Using measurements from the
    Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS/Aura) and Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector
    (MEPED/POES) between 2004–2009, we study variations of nighttime OH caused by
    radiation belt electrons at geomagnetic latitudes 55–65. For those months with daily mean
    100–300 keV electron count rate exceeding 150 counts/s in the outer radiation belt, we find
    a strong correlation (r ≥ 0.6) between OH mixing ratios at 70–78 km (0.046–0.015 hPa)
    and precipitating electrons. Correlations r ≥ 0.35, corresponding to random chance
    probability p ≤ 5%, are observed down to52 km (0.681 hPa), while no clear correlation is
    observed at altitudes below. This suggests that the fluxes of ≥3 MeV electrons were not
    high enough to cause observable changes in OH mixing ratios. At 75 km, in about 34% of
    the 65 months analyzed we find a correlation r ≥ 0.35. Although similar results are
    obtained for both hemispheres in general, in some cases the differences in atmospheric
    conditions make the OH response more difficult to detect in the South. Considering
    the latitude extent of electron forcing, we find clear effects on OH at magnetic latitudes
    55–72, while the lower latitudes are influenced much less. Because the time period
    2004–2009 analyzed here coincided with an extended solar minimum, and the year 2009
    was anomalously quiet, it is reasonable to assume that our results provide a lower-limit
    estimation of the importance of energetic electron precipitation at the latitudes considered.

  17. erl happ says:

    Thanks Ren. Just to put this paper in context:

    Energetic particle precipitation is a function of solar activity. EPP produced by solar flares leads to enhancement of odd hydrogen (HOx) in the mesosphere.

    The odd hydrogen family (HOx = H + OH + HO2), especially hydroxyl (OH), has significant implications for ozone (O3) chemistry via participation in catalytic reaction cycles that destroy ozone, and in reactions between different forms of other ozone depleting compounds.

    This is one of many papers that link solar activity to the composition of the mesospheric air that descends into the atmosphere over the poles, particularly strongly in winter.

    It should be born in mind that it is in the winter that weather and climate changes at all latitudes under the direct influence of the winter pole. Climate changes very little in the summer season.

    It should be born in mind that the amplitude of climate change (temperature, precipitation, wind direction) increases from the equator towards the pole.

    Blind Freddy misses a lot but if he is interested in how climate changes naturally under the influence of the sun he should not miss this.