Blank sun provides more evidence for solar-planetary theory

Posted: May 15, 2016 by tallbloke in Cycles, predictions, Solar physics, solar system dynamics

blank-sun

The Sun usually exhibits ~11 year cycles of activity, but the historical sunspot record shows quite a large variance on this average figure. Here at the Talkshop, we have been developing a theory which relates solar activity levels to the motion of the planets, and in particular the motion of Jupiter, Earth and Venus. Simple indexes of ‘most aligned days’ were devised by Jean-Pierre Desmoulins, and later by NASA physicist Ching Cheh Hung, which was replicated by Talkshop contributor Roy Martin.

Taking Roy’s index as a starting point, later in 2010 I re-weighted variables (reducing Venus) and factored in solar wind speed and planetary alignment along the Parker spiral, which produced this black curve:

rotation-solar-windspeed-adjusted

Ignore the solar cycle 24 prediction Roy made from 2010 (red curve) and notice the severe drop in the planetary index (black curve) around the middle of this decade, followed by a resurgence by 2019. It’s going to be interesting to see if solar cycle 24 ‘reawakens’ towards the end of this decade. I predict the current lull in activity won’t behave like a normal ~11 year solar minimum. Instead we’ll see activity picking up again within months.

 

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    New insights on the magnetic behaviour of the Sun here:

    Space mission first to observe key interaction between magnetic fields of Earth and Sun
    http://phys.org/news/2016-05-space-mission-key-interaction-magnetic.html

    They say: ‘The science of reconnection springs from the basic science of electromagnetics, which dominates most of the universe and is a force as fundamental in space as gravity is on Earth.’

    electromagnetics…dominates most of the universe – remember that one😉

  2. oldbrew says:


    SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier’s standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series.
    CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles).
    http://www.sidc.be/silso/dayssnplot

  3. ren says:

    Oldbrew
    A new paper printed on May 12, 2016, in Science provides the first observations from inside a magnetic reconnection event. The research shows that magnetic reconnection is dominated by the physics of electrons—thus providing crucial information about what powers this fundamental process in nature.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-05-space-mission-key-interaction-magnetic.html#jCp
    During the X explosions on the Sun, over the poles can be seen strong ionizing gamma radiation due to deceleration of electrons.

    [reply] see first comment on this thread🙂

  4. RJ Salvador says:

    I adjusted the sunspot model from 2013 by multiplying the model by the straight line relationship between the old sunspot numbers and the new sunspot numbers.

    This is an update to the model’s forecast with the new sunspot numbers in blue up to the models creation and in green up to the end of March 2016

  5. tallbloke says:

    RJ: When do we get the next LOD model update?
    Thanks

  6. RJ Salvador says:

    TB: At the end of may I will update the LOD model with the data available to the end of april.

  7. peterjfharris says:

    Dear oldbrew the following offers evidence of TSI modulation by irregularities in the solar orbit (forced mainly by Jupiter) but importantly an explanation why temperature has failed to decline with TSI since the GSM and evidence to show we are near the event.
    Again I have been unable to load pictures which are here :
    https://app.box.com/s/vmen6mxtutzrplfe9yx5ye3povzmrdmx
    https://app.box.com/s/p9t6igoee9ktu91h30yny6mhpkfhz85a
    I tried copy and paste and got the text but no pics. Your suggestions welcome! RGDS Peter

    A Hiatus in warming or a Stasis in cooling since the grand Solar Maximum?

    The mechanism by which the Sun warms Earth climate is not fully understood. It is considered that variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) are insufficient to explain the process. This brief study will show the close relationship of irregularities in the Solar orbit with TSI and the climate response to TSI as well as the Atlantic Multi decadal Oscillation (AMO), the periodic variation in ocean current which distributes heat from equatorial waters to the North Atlantic, warming the Northern Hemisphere.
    The phase relationship between the AMO and TSI is shown to be a critical factor which delayed cooling since the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) in 1960. The present alignment of TSI and the AMO predicts an imminent sudden decline in global temperature.
    The following chart shows the close approaches of the Sun to the Solar System Barycentre (S-SSB Range) since 1700AD and the reconstructed Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Irregularities in the S-SSB range occur periodically approximately every 190 years. These irregularities are shown below in the period since 1700AD centred at 1809 and 1989 AD. Declining temperatures have corresponded with the periods of disturbance in the Solar orbit, a correlation discussed in a number of studies Jose (1965), Fairbridge (1987), Charvatova (2000).
    The relationship is confirmed for the Dalton Minimum in the chart below.
    This study shows that Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is also correlated with the oscillations in the solar orbit and contributes together with oscillations in the Atlantic Multi decadal Oscillation (AMO) as drivers of terrestrial climate.

    From the chart above:
    1. Diminished TSI corresponds in phase with disturbance in the solar orbit during the cold Dalton Minimum from 1785 to 1830 AD.
    2. Declining TSI from 1863 follows a minor disturbance in the solar orbit.
    3. Diminished TSI in 1970 again follows the disturbed solar orbit and is reinforced by declining AMO shown in Fig.2 below with a corresponding decline in temperature from the peak in 1940.
    5. A steep decline in TSI follows the disturbed Solar orbit in 2006.
    This study will investigate why there has yet been no corresponding decline in global temperature.

    From the chart:
    1. The temperature decline from 1880 shown in Fig.2 above follows the declining AMO which is detailed in Fig.3 below and is unrelated to a disturbance in the solar orbit.
    The phase relationship of the AMO with TSI is shown in Fig. 3 below.

    From Chart 3:
    1. Showing that the decline in the AMO from 1880 correlates with the temperature decline at the time shown in Fig.2.
    2. The decline in the AMO in 1970 is in phase with declining TSI which contributes to the temperature decline shown in Fig.2 at that time.
    3. However from 1980 rising AMO is in opposition to declining TSI and global temperature enters a hiatus.
    4. Effective from 2016 both TSI and the AMO decline in phase like the Dalton period.

    Discussion
    Warming of the global climate has followed rising TSI to the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) in 1960 and up to 1998 but has been attributed to the anthropogenic emission of green House Gases notably CO2. Temperature has not followed declining TSI since the GSM but there has also been a hiatus in warming while GHG emissions continue. Temperature is at present elevated due to the effect of a strong ElNino.
    It is the rising AMO opposing the decline in TSI since 1980 that has delayed the temperature decline that would be expected from declining TSI in the period.
    The hiatus is in fact a stasis. A decline in global temperature to follow declining TSI since 1998 is offset by the AMO rising in anti-phase until 2016.
    Since 2016 the condition no longer applies as the AMO and TSI begin to decline together in phase. The Atlantic cooling has already commenced.
    This change in the phase relationship between the AMO and TSI suggests that we face a new climate paradigm with a sudden steep multi decadal decline in global temperature within 2 years. Any contribution from GHG warming would reduce the damaging effect of a climate decline.
    Peter Harris
    Retired Engineer
    May 2016

  8. peterjfharris says:

    The above link to charts should be this: https://app.box.com/s/p9t6igoee9ktu91h30yny6mhpkfhz85a
    Again apologies.
    Peter
    [mod] amended

  9. oldbrew says:

    Peter: the charts need to be uploaded to the internet in image format before they can be linked and displayed. There are websites that cater for that e.g. tinypic.

    We can do it for you on this occasion – should appear later today. Shall we set up a separate blog post?

  10. ulriclyons says:

    Peter Harris; Stronger solar wind in the 1970’s cooled the AMO and Arctic, and weaker solar wind since the mid 1990’s warmed the AMO and Arctic.

    [mod] click to enlarge

  11. Adam Gallon says:

    With a small pair of binoculars, I couldn’t see a single spot when I had a look at Mercury’s transit last week.

  12. ren says:

    2009+11=2020

  13. Geoff Sharp says:

    peterjfharris says:

    Declining temperatures have corresponded with the periods of disturbance in the Solar orbit, a correlation discussed in a number of studies Jose (1965), Fairbridge (1987), Charvatova (2000).

    Some correction perhaps needed in this area Peter. Jose didn’t really get too involved with Solar grand minima and Fairbridge and not forgetting Landscheidt worked on the J/S/U/N alignment that doesn’t correlate with disturbed solar orbit (but is close sometimes). Charvatova discovered the disturbed orbit but did not see the cause or understand how to differentiate each single 10 year disturbed orbit.

    But yes there is very solid evidence for disturbed solar orbits and solar grand minima occurrence across the Holocene. ie ALL grand minima occur during the disturbed solar orbit. Svalgaard is still ignoring this hard fact.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Sun’s magnetic field during the grand minimum is in fact at its maximum
    Date: May 9, 2016

    Summary:
    The study of the Sun’s long-term variation over a millennium by means of super computer modelling showed that during a time period of the Maunder Minimum type, the magnetic field may hide at the bottom of the convection zone.
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160509085758.htm

    ‘As a result of the computation carried out, currently the world’s longest numerical simulation was created that produces a solar-like dynamo solution complete with its long-term variation.’

  15. Canadian Climate Guy says:

    Reblogged this on Canadian Climate Guy.

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