Bold British Brexit Beckons

Posted: June 7, 2016 by tallbloke in EU Referendum, government, People power, Politics

Two political posts in a row from me, apologies to science lovers who have no dog in the EU referendum fight or the American presidency race.

For the first time in the EU referendum campaign, the ‘Leave’ camp has been ahead for more than a day. It is an incredibly tight race, with barely a couple of points splitting the rivals. There is a handy widget for monitoring the ‘poll of polls’, which averages the results of all the companies which test public opinion. Here’s the latest snapshot:

pollofpolls

As you can see, the ‘leave’ camp have been the underdogs most of the way. But the mood seems to be changing, and in the final 16 days, the momentum seems to be on the side of those who wish to take back control of UK affairs from the unelected commissars in Brussels.

On the economic front, there has been an interesting intervention by Jim Mellon, who published a book in 2006 warning of the impending US housing bad debt bubble burst in 2007 which precipitated the worldwide economic crash we’re still recovering from 8 years later.

On the political front, ‘Leave’ leader Michael Gove gave a good performance on Sky TV which got the audience onside, the night after Remainian PM David Cameron crashed and burned in the same interview – audience Q&A format.

The most impassioned statement of the campaign so far isn’t from a politician though. It comes from a social commentator with a forthright way of presenting his views. Pat Condell isn’t someone I follow on all matters, but here he is spot on, and worth 10 minutes of your time.

 

But after all the hyperbole of the campaign, it’s good to listen for three minutes to former Bank of England chief Mervyn King, who has a far more measured and less partisan view than the current incumbent Mark Carney.

Comments
  1. Poly says:

    Tallbloke,
    While I support Brexit, you should pay more attention to where the money flows i.e. the betting and futures markets.
    These money flows indicate insider knowledge and commitment.
    On these markets there has been some improvement in the probability of the Leave side winning, but it is still has a very low probability – something like 35%.

  2. Heath took UK into EEC having been advised it was illegal due to loss of sovereignty.

    Please sign petition (confusingly worded) so parliament acknowledges and debates this advice

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/122770

    More detail here http://jeremyshiers.com/blog/petition-parliament-to-debate-lord-kilmuirs-letter-to-ted-heath/

  3. wolsten says:

    Rog,

    watch Sunday Politics from this weekend on iPlayer, the debate puece was won hands down by Hannan:

    http://bbc.in/1t9X0Eq

  4. wolsten says:

    Rog,

    Not sure where “peuce” came from, blame auto correct.

  5. Stephen Richards says:

    BEWARE. Druncker has said that he will intervene if brexit reaches 10% above stay.

  6. Stephen Richards says:

    That moment of truth video is the best I have seen. I saw it on twitter last week but couldn’t find it again.

  7. The most serious threat to our liberty is not so much the EU, but the loss of our right to jury trial that has been slowly eaten away, first by the EU arrest warrant and now by the EU wide police force which can require our police to investigate arrest and deport anyone.

    And given that is is only a matter a time before campaigning to leave the EU becomes a criminal offence in this soviet-style regime which like all such large bureaucratic heavy regimes will have to relentlessly squash down on any dissent, it is only a matter of time before any protesters against the EU who cannot be prosecuted in their home country, are just whisked away to a country where they have EU friendly magistrates who will convict.

    The other serious threat to us in the UK is this damned EU army. No doubt Argentina is already making invasion plans for the Falklands because they know that as soon as our army is under EU control, there is no way the UK would not be allowed to defend the Falklands (It was France who supplied Argentina with the Exocet missiles that killed so many British – and most intentionally use the false Argentinian name to indicate whose side they are on).

  8. All three videos are a must watch and listen.

  9. Tim Hammond says:

    Poly. I see these claims about the bookies and markets many times, but nobody can ever explain where the “knowledge” comes from. We each have a single vote. Thus the only knowledge that can be had is how each of us is going to vote. The polls take what they think is a sample that gives them a close answer, but people lie, say what they think the questioner wants to hear, change their mind etc etc.

    As for the bookies/markets, they reflect a combination of the polls and what money is bet. No person making a bet has any better knowledge than the polls (granted some financial players are doing private polling, but that’s no more accurate than the public polls).

    Without wanting to sound arrogant or condescending, I suspect that the average Leaver is more likely to be either not betting (e.g. my mother) or betting on Euro 2016 than the referendum, and vice-versa.

    We’ll see, but the bookies don’t have any more knowledge than you or me in this case.

  10. A C Osborn says:

    8364khz says:
    June 7, 2016 at 10:46 am

    Is that an indication of how desperate they are getting with the way the public opinions are moving?
    Their whole campaign has smacked of desperation from day 1.

    But BEWARE THE POSTAL VOTES, they are being used more & more to change the outcome of voting all over the world and this Government along with the EU are desperate & corrupt enough to use it.
    It will need the most strenuous of monitoring.

  11. Gerry, England says:

    Finally it starts to get interesting. I would take no notice of betting and certainly not dodgy city boys and their markets who failed to see the banking collapse coming. Juncker to join in? Bring him on as another outsider drowning on about babies being eaten or plagues of locusts or whatever his scary story will be should help the leave campaign. Sensible people are ignoring the official campaigners who are both equally useless and finding information from the more enlightened sources on the internet. Vote Leave are still dragging the dead carcass of their £350m saving around while Cameron promises increasing Armageddon while trying to claim he isn’t scaremongering.

    Referenda are never about the question set on the paper. they evolve into something else and I would say it is becoming the people versus the Establishment. The more Remain bleat on about it being a disaster to leave the more the people will offer two fingers in response. As for the BBC 8364khz, that is good news creeping through that torpedoes all the economic claims of the Remainers and should have been the Leave option in the first place. Remember this is a referendum and not an election with a manifesto of promise – or it is ambitions Cameron? The result we want is out and need to get it any way we can. Once free we can work on rearranging our affairs, that is the joy of the Norway option and what scares the remainers so much Cameron had to rubbish it early on. Contrarianism says do the opposite of Cameron so it must be good.

    I only hope we aren’t peaking too soon and likely to stir more remainers from their torpor. I believe we are more determined to vote so bring on a horrible cold wet day on 23rd to keep the opposition at home.

  12. Poly says:

    Gerry, Tim,
    I hope the leave vote wins, but really the markets indicate otherwise.
    Unfortunately they have a proven better track record than polls – just do your own research.
    Maybe the markets will move closer enough to 50% leave, then I will believe . . .

  13. Stephen Richards says:

    The EU non court judgement today should help brexit. Can’t deport criminals or lock them up.

  14. Stephen Richards says:

    Poly says:

    June 7, 2016 at 2:47 pm

    The markets are notoriously bad predictors. Think 2008, they nearly always get it wrong and then panic. It is their panics that create market volatility

  15. catweazle666 says:

    Poly says: “Unfortunately they have a proven better track record than polls – just do your own research.”

    Yeah, why not… Let’s see…

    Um, 2008. You call that a better track record do you?

    That’s all the research I’m doing, or IMO need to do.

    Sorry mate, the markets indicate squit.

  16. catweazle666 says:

    Oh, and concerning the bookies, I’m told there is some misrepresentation involved (surprise!) because although there is more money on Remain, there are more bets on Brexit, ie fewer rich punters are making larger bets than more punters are making small bets.

  17. E.M.Smith says:

    Do remember that the E.U. is a vehicle designed by the elite of Europe to dissasemble national sovereignty and end the Westfalian State, If you value youf country, exit. Because iv you don’t, Britain ends. By design.

    From a too lonv comment here:
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/06/01/huff-post-pulled-article/#comment-68751

    referencing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_sovereignty

    In 1998, at a Symposium on the Continuing Political Relevance of the Peace of Westphalia, NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said that “humanity and democracy [were] two principles essentially irrelevant to the original Westphalian order” and levied a criticism that “the Westphalian system had its limits. For one, the principle of sovereignty it relied on also produced the basis for rivalry, not community of states; exclusion, not integration.”

    In 1999, British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave a speech in Chicago where he “set out a new, post-Westphalian, ‘doctrine of the international community.’” Blair argued that globalization had made the Westphalian approach anachronistic.] Blair was later referred to by The Daily Telegraph as “the man who ushered in the post-Westphalian era.” Others have also asserted that globalization has superseded the Westphalian system.

    In 2000, Germany’s Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer referred to the Peace of Westphalia in his Humboldt Speech, which argued that the system of European politics set up by Westphalia was obsolete: “The core of the concept of Europe after 1945 was and still is a rejection of the European balance-of-power principle and the hegemonic ambitions of individual states that had emerged following the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, a rejection which took the form of closer meshing of vital interests and the transfer of nation-state sovereign rights to supranational European institutions.”

    There is much more, but it all points the same way. Mix up populations and languagex to destroy the nation state and nationalism so the Elite can build their post Westfalian Empire of Central Authority.

    That is why any trace of national pride is decried as everthing from racist to radical extremism and hords of non-nationals are planted everywhere. It isn’t stupidity nor ethical purity run amok, it is calculated destruction of the Westfalian State, and for you folks, that means the end of Britain. By design. So stay, and be erased, or exit. Your choice.

  18. Stephen Richards says:

    Remember, Brexit is not about the economy, immigration, price of this that and the other. Its about freedom. Freedom to govern oneself.
    Everything else is just flim flan

  19. tallbloke says:

  20. tallbloke says:

    We’re going to win this. I can feel it in my bones.

  21. oldbrew says:

    EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 12 days to go

    Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

  22. suricat says:

    For the vote to include the UK into the EEC I voted a big ‘yes’. I never ‘voted’ for the EU partnership, but my Government voted ‘for me’ during a period that the UK constitution was ‘broken’!

    If ‘brexit’ wins the ‘referendum’ we need to ‘repair’ our ‘constitution’ before we can decide ‘where we want to go’ from here/there.

    Ray.

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