#Brexit – A big decision, but not a difficult one

Posted: June 17, 2016 by tallbloke in government, People power, Politics

Leeds Leave EU

Excellent opinion piece in the Telegraph by Charles Moore. This is the conclusion:

The 21st century is supposed to be the age of people power, yet we, in Britain, have less of it than did our grandparents. The EU is leading us away from democratic modernity. There is no evidence that it will change direction: indeed, it is so constituted that it can’t.

Because of David Cameron’s elaborate political calculations, we now have this referendum. We cannot dictate any detail by our vote, but we can mandate our Government to leave, or permit it to stay. Trepidation about leaving is understandable, because we cannot know exactly what would happen next. The Parliament whose freedom we would recover needs massive re-equipping for the task. But we have, for one brief moment, recovered the power that has gradually been removed from us. If we vote Leave, we maximise it; if we vote Remain, we throw it away.

It is a very serious decision but not, I would argue, such a terribly difficult one. Is there anything in the shape of the modern world which tells us that when we vote to be run by a distant oligarchy, we thrive? Is there anything in our history which tells us that when we vote to govern ourselves, we go wrong?

  1. Curious George says:

    From California: It seems that all arguments against leaving are “It would cost a lot.” What is the price of freedom?

  2. abjq says:

    I’m taking a long look at the issues – undecided myself – see http://brexit2016blog.wordpress.com for (I hope) an unbiased analysis.

  3. johnbuk says:

    Curious George, no it’s a lot more than that according to the Remain team – in fact we’re awaiting the date of the plague of locusts and serpents.

  4. E.M.Smith says:


    I don’t find much export / financial risk.

    But Germany has a lot to lose if they get pissy as they export a lot more to the UK than they import. The U.K. exports broadly to the non-EU world, with the USA and China as big customers.

  5. p.g.sharrow says:

    the British MPs would have to become responsible people once again. Unable to blame bad decisions on faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. Politicians want to bask in adulation for their good intentions, and not be blamed for the bad outcomes.

    The people do best when decisions are made close to home by people that can be held personally accountable. Government people and their friends do best for themselves when they can “pass the buck” of responsibility to the faceless, them others did it.

    We don’t need them!

    Briton has done best while guiding it’s own destiny. The EU is a wreak that is taking place now. Get out now or be drudge down with them…pg

  6. Kevin Hearle says:

    A view from down under. When you joined the EU and dumped New Zealand you did us an incredible favour. You where our main market for our agricultural products the mainstay of our economy, that disappeared virtually overnight. We had to reform our economy and we took the hard decisions and opened the economy, took away subsidies and negotiated new trade deals with our Pacific rim neighbours. The result were astounding, our economy thrived, it diversified and as a result we sailed through the GFC and we continue to thrive. Not that we don’t have problems but we do have the power to make our own decisions and solve those problems without anyone else telling us what to do or vetoing what we want to do.
    Good luck.

    PS If you look at it from outside the decision is simple LEAVE

  7. tallbloke says:

    Views from abroad are especially welcome on this topic. The debate is far too insular here, with the Remain camp (with the aid of the media) trying to narrow the focus of the debate onto the alleged worker benefits brought by the EU and risks to the UK economy if we leave. They won’t discuss world trade or the damaging protectionist nature of the EU’s customs union.

  8. edmh says:

    This is a short note I wrote about 6 weeks ago before the real campaign began.

    I am an ex-pat in France. In spite of the mess its likely to cause me directly I am 100% for Brexit.

    The European Union has far exceeded the mandate I and many other Northern Europeans gave it from 1972 onwards.

    The crazy thing is that the “Common Market” as it was sold to the unwitting people of Europe was all that needed to maintain peace in Europe. The European peoples were duped because the real unifying intent of the European Union project beyond a “Common Market” was never disclosed.

    It is the overweening and vain political ambition of ever greater expansion and “ever closer union” that has destroyed that the laudable aim of a real “Common Market” between similar European Nations.

    The EU is bound to collapse under the weight of its undemocratic and economic anachronisms within 20 years or less.

    Some of the EU ‘s major failures include:
    · its currency experiment, the Euro, has failed because of the inconsistent quality of the economies that have been co-opted into it, leading to severe youth unemployment and economic disaster in its Southern Nations.
    · the EU is the only trading block in he world that is failing economically.
    · its uncontrolled borders, internal and external are unable to control malign influences.
    · the dogma of the free movement of people throughout the EU has unreasonably burdened the more prosperous nations and depressed the wages of their working people.
    · over-regulation in all sectors of the economy with major burdens on business whether they have any trade with the EU or not.
    · an overarching and unaccountable legal system undermining established National legislatures.
    · its fatuous energy policies are destroying the industries of its participant Nations.
    · misguided and actually damaging environmental policies.
    · appallingly naïve and dangerous foreign policy decisions such as in the Ukraine.
    · and most crucially the PEOPLE of Europe are unable to dismiss or even influence the makers of their laws and regulations.
    · etc.

    There is now huge democratic dissatisfaction within the EU nations and it is escalating. Referenda in France, the Netherlands and Ireland, just ignored. The Dutch and the Finnish people have just defied Brussels. 25% of the French voted for Marine le Pen in the first round of their recent elections this year. The list of the disaffected goes on.

    It seems that whenever the people are given a chance to oppose Brussels they take it. I trust it will be the same in the UK in June.

    As even Gorbachov himself has said, “the EU has gotten just as undemocratic as the old USSR”.
    “The most puzzling development in politics during the last decade is the apparent determination of Western European leaders to re-create the Soviet Union in Western Europe.”

    Even Mr Tusk now admits that the people of Europe are no longer in favour of the great European unifying project. Whether that means that the Brussels will start to react to the news in stead of becoming ever more dictatorial is another question. Brexit would give great impetus to a similar reactions throughout Europe.

    You can defy democracy and keep the cork in the bottle for only so long. In the end the people will revolt.

    David Cameron’s attempt at renegotiation of a few of the fundamentals of the EU failed to meet any of his originally stated objectives and was totally rejected. The EU distainful response to the UK, its second largest contributor, shows that the EU is institutionally un-reformable from its current state.

    The fact that there is a referendum in the UK, the second largest economy in the EU, means that the questions are being asked ever louder right across the Europe. Whatever the outcome just asking the question in the UK already casts real doubt on the European project.

    If The EU continues for the longer term, it’s demise could even turn violent.
    If they achieve Brexit the Brits will do the all the PEOPLE of Europe an huge favour. This will put down a marker and will accelerate the demise of the EU, as it has now become.

    Brexit would show the way to a free, democratic and cooperative future.

    Brexit could advance the collapse of the house of cards that is the EU, so it might only take 5 years. Cutting the loss quickly will be much less painful.

    As the Confucian curse says, “May you live in interesting times”.



  9. A C Osborn says:

    The leave campaign has damaged the already poor images of the politicians involved.
    Ca moron says he is going to stay on whatever the result, I am not sure the rest of his party agree with him.

  10. Anoneumouse says:

  11. Andrew says:

    Good article asking how Dave & co have got the British character wrong http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/how-did-the-remain-campaign-get-the-british-character-so-wrong/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_term=Autofeed#link_time=1466264650

    Andrew Marr has an article in the Spectator(£) initial paragraphs v.encouraging. If anyone here can see all, a summary would be appreciated

  12. Russ Wood says:

    p.g.Sharrow said: “The people do best when decisions are made close to home by people that can be held personally accountable”. In centrally controlled, socialist South Africa, using the proportional representation voting, the ANC central office allocates all its MPs and local councillors. The result is that in the country (or sometimes urban) districts, people angry at the ANC for not delivering what was promised, instead of not voting for them, have “service delivery” riots. In these, often the local ANC councillor IS held “personally accountable”, and his/her house is burnt down! I believe that now, ANC councillors have their home and car insurance premiums paid for then as a ‘perk’. Now that COULD be an incentive to get things right!

  13. Poly says:

    Sorry to report this. I was watching the “leave” momentum build and hoping for a “leave” win.
    However, the betting/prediction markets have suddenly turned.
    PredictIt now at 33% probability for “leave”, and the betting has it at 31% probability for “leave”.
    I hope it is wrong, but I doubt it!
    Farage is on to it.

    What about the bookkeepers?

    As we reported yesterday, here things are vastly different as Bookies continue to expect “Bremain” to win with a substantial margin perhaps as a result of the faltering recent surge in the Brexit numbers. Here are the latest numbers:


    Or 77% Remain; 29% Leave


    Or 75% Remain, 31% Leave

    As Bloomberg summarizes, the oddschecker survey of bookmakers’ implied probability of Brexit based on betting odds drops to 29.8% at 12:37 pm London time, a sharp from from yesterday when the implied probability of Brexit vote closed at 35.8%. Alternatively, the survey of implied probability for “Remain” vote rose to about 75.2% from 70.4% at the close yesterday.

    Also according to the survey, the probability that Britons would choose to leave the EU in the June 23 referendum dropped below 40% Friday, after exceeding 44% Thursday, according to Oddschecker’s survey of bookmakers’ implied probability.

    But perhaps the most interest comment came moments ago from Nigel Farage where he told with Peston where he had the following exchange with Robert Peston:

    Farage: We have momentum. We did have momentum until this terrible tragedy.

    Peston: So the tragedy will have an impact on the outcome.

    Farage: It’s had an impact on the whole campaign for everybody.

    Peston: What impact is that.

    Farage: When you are taking on the establishment, you need to have momentum. I don’t know what is going to happen over the course of the next 3 or 4 days, but I would say this. That the action of one person with serious mental issues, frankly what we saw was an act of terrorism. It’s been a dreadful week: Orlando, killings in Paris, now one of our own MPs. It’s difficult to tell but I just think this: those that have made their mind up to leave, cause they want to get control of their country back, they will go out and vote on Thursday.

  14. tallbloke says:

    Keep calm and carry onwards, upwards and OUTWARDS.