‘Healing’ detected in Antarctic ozone hole 

Posted: July 1, 2016 by oldbrew in atmosphere, ozone, volcanos
Tags:

Ozone hole over Antarctica (Nov. 2014) [image credit: theozonehole.com]

Ozone hole over Antarctica (Nov. 2014) [image credit: theozonehole.com]


Of course the people behind the CFC ban are patting themselves on the back, but the role of other variables in the atmosphere may have been ignored or overlooked. Extracts from a BBC News report follow.

Researchers say they have found the first clear evidence that the thinning in the ozone layer above Antarctica is starting to heal.

The scientists said that in September 2015 the hole was around 4 million sq km smaller than it was in the year 2000 – an area roughly the size of India.

The gains have been credited to the long term phasing out of ozone-destroying chemicals. The study also sheds new light on the role of volcanoes in making the problem worse.

One finding that puzzled researchers was the October 2015 reading that showed the biggest ozone hole on record over Antarctica. The scientists believe that a key contributor to the record hole was volcanic activity.

“After an eruption, volcanic sulphur forms tiny particles and those are the seeds for Polar Stratospheric Clouds,” [US researcher] Prof Susan Solomon told Science in Action.
“You get even more of these clouds when you have a recent major volcanic eruption and that leads to additional ozone loss…Until we did our recent work no-one realised that the Calbuco eruption in Chile, actually had significantly affected the ozone loss in October of last year.”

The study has been hailed as “historically significant” by some other researchers in the field.
“This is the first convincing evidence that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole has now started,” said Dr Markus Rex from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany.
“Right now the state of the ozone layer is still really bad, but I find it very important that we know the Montreal Protocol is working and has an effect on the size of the hole and that is a big step forward.”

Full report: ‘Healing’ detected in Antarctic ozone hole – BBC News

Comments
  1. DB says:

    Barnes et al. modeled the possible effects of ozone reduction over the 21st century. There models indicate that for the first half of the century the effect will be to “cause a delay in summer-time (DJF) Southern Hemisphere climate change, between now and 2045.” After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate.
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00246.1

    So, for the next 30 years warming in the southern hemisphere will just be phoning it in instead of actually showing up.

  2. Bitter& Twisted says:

    Montreal Protocol my backside.
    According to this paper http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2691/2013/acp-13-2691-2013.pdf
    CFC atmospheric lifetimes are in the region of 100 years.

    And according to this: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2013/05/02/china-receives-us-95-million-grant-to-end-production-of-ozone-depleting-global-warming-gases

    China is still producing them.
    And we all know that the Chinese obey the rules….

  3. erl happ says:

    I recently purchased a tractor from an Indian based producer manufacturing in China. Before it left China the seller released the CFCs into the atmosphere because it would not have got into Australia otherwise. Australia is a small market for these tractors that are sold to many developing countries at less than half the price of comparable models from local agents.

    But in any case the ozone hole was there before the widespread use of CFCs. Gordon Dobson was amazed to discover it in 1956, at first putting it down to instrumental error. Its a natural feature of atmospheric dynamics during the ‘final warming’ in spring time in the transition to summer conditions.

    Climate science as currently practised does not get to first base in understanding the dynamics behind the waxing and waning of the ozone content of the ozonosphere. Those interested in the origins of the hole might to advantage take into account my own observations here: https://reality348.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/23-the-dearly-beloved-antarctic-ozone-hole-a-function-of-atmospheric-dynamics/

  4. oldbrew says:

    DB says: ‘After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate.’

    The hidden assumption there is that no ‘confounding factors’ will be in play.
    But having already decided they ARE in play up to 2045, why couldn’t others be in play later?

    Let’s suggest another view: no correlation between CO2 levels and Antarctic temperatures has been found.

  5. A C Osborn says:

    This is based on complete lies. The Ozone in the atmosphere has been measured at the Mauna loa Station since 1957 and other places from slightly later.
    Not only has there been no increase since the Montreal Protocol, there has been a very slow decline in ozone since 1957 at Mauna loa.
    There has been a very slight increase in the New Zealand Antarctic data, which only runs from 1996, but none in the USA South Pole Antarctic data which runs from 1963.
    They cherry pick their data, because the ozone holes have an almost breathing like movement ot it.
    I can’t post the Excel Graph with the data, but it can be found here
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ozwv/surfoz/

  6. E.M.Smith says:

    The ozone depletion over the poles moves and changes with the polar magnetic and particle flux, seasonaly with the sun, and unrelated to the nearly constant cfc present. The only possible conclusion is that cfc is unrelated.

  7. Bloke down the pub says:

    Let’s see now, volcanic eruptions make the ozone hole bigger, they also make the world colder. The ozone hole is smaller now because there haven’t been as many eruptions, therefore the world is also warmer. Seems about right, just have to wait and see what happens to global temps trends after a few big eruptions.

  8. dennisambler says:

    This announcement is possibly a result of Brexit. They need some “good news” that concerted global action can solve a non-existent problem. Montreal was the trojan horse for the Kyoto Protocol.

  9. ren says:

    The NCEP GDAS and CPC temperature and height analyses are used to monitor processes in the Stratosphere and Troposphere.

  10. ren says:

    Sunspot number: 0
    Updated 01 Jul 2016

    Spotless Days
    Current Stretch: 8 days
    2016 total: 12 days (7%)
    2015 total: 0 days (0%)
    2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
    2013 total: 0 days (0%)
    2012 total: 0 days (0%)
    2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
    2010 total: 51 days (14%)
    2009 total: 260 days (71%)
    Updated 30 Jun 2016

  11. Bitter&twisted says:

    OT but check out this petition
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/125333/signatures/new

    Get out of the EU fast!

  12. Margaret says:

    What is happening to the northern hemisphere ozone? I thought the ‘hole” there had been increasing – but can anyone confirm that?

  13. suricat says:

    E.M.Smith says: July 1, 2016 at 5:11 pm

    “The ozone depletion over the poles moves and changes with the polar magnetic and particle flux, seasonally with the sun, and unrelated to the nearly constant cfc present. The only possible conclusion is that cfc is unrelated.”

    I totally concur Mr Smith. However, the/any ‘reduction’ in ozone empirically, wrongly, implies ‘changes in atmospheric oxygen concentrations’ (O and O3 is ‘molecular oxygen’ when all is said and done)! Stratospheric altitudes don’t accurately reflect/present true data for tropospheric altitudes. Any conjugation between them is obfuscation and I think you would agree Chiefio.

    Guys, we need to ‘only’ take account of O2 concentrations within the troposphere to provide an observation of the/any ‘flux’ to ‘oxygen concentration’ for Earth’s ‘life systems’. To do otherwise would invoke ‘scare tactics’! Please, let’s not get into the ‘scare tactics’ that the UN used to eradicate any ‘CFC compound’ that’s being replicated by the EU for Brexit!

    Refrigeration systems enjoy a greater ‘COP’ (Coefficient Of Performance) with ‘CFC’ compounds! Thus, the UN has ‘shackled’ engineers WRT their performance to improve efficiency by proclaiming that CFCs alter the oxygen levels. Duh!

    Anyhow, what causes the ‘hole’ in the first place/instance? It’s always been there (I know that you don’t know (that was a rhetorical question Chief), but what’s your input?).

    I’m signing out for now.

    Best regards, Ray.

  14. ren says:

    Margaret says:
    What is happening to the northern hemisphere ozone? I thought the ‘hole” there had been increasing – but can anyone confirm that?



  15. gallopingcamel says:

    Folks who are skeptical about the Montreal Protocol are ridiculed yet we may need to revisit this piece of “Consensus Science”:
    https://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2014/12/16/countering-consensus-calculations/

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