Big Drop In June Temperatures According To UAH

Posted: July 3, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, ENSO
Tags: ,

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We’re supposed to believe that CO2 levels determine global temperature, but here in plain sight is obvious evidence that they don’t.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Roy Spencer has news of a big drop in satellite temperatures last month:

NOTE: This is the fifteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is still in peer review.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2016 is +0.34 deg. C, down 0.21 deg. C from the May value of +0.55 deg. C (click for full size version):

UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2016_v6

This gives a 2-month temperature fall of -0.37 deg. C, which is the second largest in the 37+ year satellite record…the largest was -0.43 deg. C in Feb. 1988.

In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56 deg. C, just edging out -0.55 deg. C in June 1998 (also an El Nino…

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Comments
  1. tchannon says:

    The end of a spike. If this is similar to previous system transients I expect a temperature undershoot comes next.

  2. Ron Clutz says:

    Post El Nino, I can see four possibilities for the future climates, two that warmists will like, and two they won’t.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/the-coming-climate/

  3. oldbrew says:

    Any warmists depending on ENSO variations for their claims have, in effect, already conceded that CO2 is not the key factor they would like people to believe it is.

  4. gallopingcamel says:

    I predicted this six months ago but I am happy that the splendid Roy Spencer confirmed it.

    You don’t have to be a genius to predict that the temperature will continue to form fall just as it did following the 1998 El Nino.

  5. gallopingcamel says:

    Ooops!

    The temperature will continue to FALL (not FORM). It is getting late and the Glenfiddich is taking over.

  6. ren says:

    The last El Niño is a big waste of energy oceans. The atmosphere does not accumulate heat.

  7. Richard111 says:

    Wife has been muttering about plant and veggies in the garden behaving like it is already autumn. Wondering if the lack of sunspots has anything to do with this. Is the UV from the sun reduced in any way? Is there a record available that a layman could understand?

  8. ren says:

    Richard111
    Look at the temperature of 2000 (La Niña) and solar activity.
    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2006/normalise

  9. ren says:

    Richard111
    Look at the temperature of 2000 (La Niña) and solar activity.
    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2006/normalise
    What if coincide La Niña and minimum? When the jet stream falls far south?

  10. ren says:

    The decrease in UV radiation corresponds to a decrease wave F10,7 cm.
    http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif?time=1467604203000

  11. Poly says:

    Ren,
    I do not understand what you are saying.
    What is your point?
    I think you are saying the drop in temperature will be greater than expected, but I am not sure.

  12. oldmanK says:

    Some observations:

    Quote: “NOTE: This is the fifteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 ” It is also beta5. Question: will version 7 give different results? It somehow looks like continually shifting the goalpost to make a good score.

    from gallopingcamel “It is getting late and the Glenfiddich is taking over.” Sounds like a warming is likely –and in June! Unless you have a big ice-bucket handy.

    From Richard111 ” plant and veggies in the garden behaving like it is already autumn”. My trees have been behaving like its spring since last september. Peaches, plums bloomed five times but no fruit set. No rain all winter; the first downpour to speak of was two weeks ago, out of season.

  13. ren says:

    Poly, agrees that falls below expectations.

    Oldman:

    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/normalise

  14. Poly says:

    Ren,
    Thanks for clarifying that you believe temperature falls will be greater than expected.
    We should consider the risks and rewards of this “colder than expected” scenario when combined with the possible economic/political/cultural scenarios developing now.
    There could be some potentially huge upheavals ahead.

  15. Richard111 says:

    Thanks ren. Lots of info out there on F10.7 cm solar waveband. Now my curiosity is about the historical ‘wheat price” changes which seemed to follow the ‘sunspot cycle’. Is UV involved? If so, this years harvests might show some decrease in production.

  16. Poly says:

    Richard111,
    I don’t follow agri markets much so I had a quick look at the NASDAQ wheat charts.
    The price has fallen substantially lately from an annual average of about $500 to about $420 now.
    The Mar’17 futures are only about $460.
    It looks like bumper harvests are expected. If they are impacted by cold there could be some strong price gains.
    You would have to speak to an agri market specialist to get a full picture.

  17. gallopingcamel says:

    Richard III,

    The correlation of wheat price to climate is striking. Thanks for reminding me:
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/08/the-climate-grain-production-relationship-quantified/
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1411.5471.pdf

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