Weather stats, monthlies, updates

Posted: July 5, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, weather

Tim writes: –

Another interlude gives me space to update the novel statistics computed from published data. This is not comparable with the official methods, it’s better. Takes into account normal variation during a year; bends the data to near gaussian.

May was not particularly interesting, June was the 2nd dimmest for S and SE England since these records commenced 1929.


May 2016

Rainfall across the UK regions was normal for the month.

Sunshine in most cases half to one standard deviation above average.

Temperature, Tmin, Tmean, Tmax were all slightly below normal, in a few cases by nearly 1 SD, but mostly only slightly.

This seems a peculiar result given April 2016 was lauded as dreadfully cold… at least all I’d gleaned from a hospital bed. Not so according to these figures.

More peculiar still is the contrast with the Met Office article published near the end of April. This differs sharply in one parameter: sunshine, below average. Maybe this is illuminating?

Met Office article

June 2016

A little warmer than normal.

Precipitation was normal for the north-west including northern Ireland. To the east it was wet, most regions by 1 to 2 SD.

A surprise was sunshine. To the south and east mostly 2 to 3 SD below normal, dim it was.

A curiosity is the exceptionally low sunshine records being set mostly during early summer… such as June. This implies an episodic exceptional weather type, in 2016 there was wet air arriving from continental Europe producing many thunder storms.

This largely agrees with the Met Office blog article.

Data from Met Office areal series and Hadley UKP.

June Results as PDFs (2MB)
See previous Talkshop articles for references and method.

Post by Tim

  1. A C Osborn says:

    “June 2016 A little warmer than normal.”?
    You could have fooled me, night times in particular have felt colder than normal for June.

  2. tchannon says:

    I agree, June nights were cold. July is doing well too, ground frosts up north.

    Why? The Met Office data might be wonky, OTOH this is a cold country. Any ideas?

  3. ren says:

    Sea temperature.

  4. ren says:

    The jet stream is a strong flowing ribbon of air that flows around our planet high up in the atmosphere, at around the level of the tropopause. Situated between the troposphere and the stratosphere, the Jet Stream is approximately 11 kilometres above the surface of the Earth at the poles and around 17 kilometres above the surface of the Earth at the equator. The jet stream flows at around 160kmph (100mph). We often hear that the jet stream is responsible for influencing the weather in the UK, so it is natural to wonder what causes the jet stream and why it has such an influence on the weather we experience on the ground.

    Jet streams form and are strongest where variable air temperature gradients are steepest. This is normally seen in two zones:
    The boundary between the polar and mid latitude air . The Polar Front Jet or Polar jet
    The boundary between the mid latitude air and tropical air . The Subtropical Jet.

    Tchannon look at the forecast of the jet stream.

  5. tchannon says:

    I would welcome someone doing work on the monthly pattern of abnormality. These are likely to match particular weather patterns.

    Whether anything useful arises, who knows?

  6. craigm350 says:

    Why cold?

    Min CET 11.2 (+1.5)
    Max CET 19.3 (+0.7)

    Max temps quite subdued. Was humid at many points earlier in month even though temps nothing special but it has oscillated from mid month with lots of back and forth and different parcels of wind blowing hot or cool (mostly cool with the rains but not always). Never truly hot though.

    The cloud may have kept night temps up as local max was below average but min was above av. Bar the poke of heat early June where max followed mins have been consistently above average until this past week where they’ve dropped off. Lack of sun to warm the bones?

    Not sure how much the grey bank of cloud affected things for CET zone earlier in the month. As I drove west one day car temp was 13°C under it and 21°C once away from it in the sunshine. Cloud clung broke past Swindon. Temp was very constant day and night under that bank. It was a relief to see sunshine.

  7. craigm350 says:

    & nice to see you back doing the weather Tim 🙂

  8. tchannon says:

    Nice to be back, able to do things. Little by little.

    Luck is recovering from major surgery during the summer, fighting cold as well would be awful.

  9. oldbrew says:

    ‘From January 16 until June 30 there have been no hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere, the longest period since 1977, and the second longest from 1950 to present.’

  10. tchannon says:

    oldbrew, And at times a blank sun.

    There seems to be a solar cycle linkage. A data analysis shows this but with such sparse data not clearly. Nothing direct of course, a side effect of general weather linkage, not that we have a clue on how.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Somehow the energy to drive hurricanes has gone missing or been watered down.

  12. suricat says:

    Hi Tim, nice to see you back here!

    Your thread’s been ‘hijacked’ by ‘ren’ and ‘oldbrew’. I wonder why!

    The UK lays beneath a meandering NH polar ‘jet’ that demarcates the inclusion, or exclusion, of the UK’s climate regimen to one activity or the other.

    When the ‘jet’ passes at a lower latitude the UK is related to the Ferrel Cell activity, but when the ‘jet’ passes at a higher latitude the UK is more related to the Polar Cell activity. This is ‘mind numbingly’ obvious I know, but some readers may not be ‘up to speed’ on this point.

    Of more importance, what causes the ‘ebb and flow’ of a ‘jet stream’ (hint, inertia)?

    However. oldbrew says: July 10, 2016 at 9:04 am

    “Somehow the energy to drive hurricanes has gone missing or been watered down.”

    Suggests that ‘ocean surface’ insolation energy differs from ‘land surface’ insolation energy!

    I concur.

    OTOH, the points raised by ‘ren’ are pertinent to the rates of ‘insolation’ by Solar activity, or not.

    What’s the ‘UV’ activity of Sol during these events (Sun spot activity included)?

    Best regards, Ray.

  13. oldbrew says:

    El Nino patterns contributed to long-lived marine heatwave in North Pacific

    Still trying to conflate El Nino with supposed man-made climate effects. La Nina headache on the way?

  14. tchannon says:

    I’m inclined to agree about being in the polar cell, hard to bear. As I’ve mentioned before, I suspect we have now seen a climatic regime shift, probably back to that existing prior to 1980ish. This may also explain why the weather GCM went bad on forecast, were trained on a different regime.

    Both are free to comment, usually better than silence. I tend to be quiet, partly at the moment from continuing illness, living day by day. I am still in surgery pain. I still can’t eat properly, will never be able to eat normally. At the mo, nausia and worse every morning, now get down and keep down that pile of pills.
    Off to Oxford later for a camera down my throat… pray no reason to take biopsies, no leaks, benign reason for my voice going bad, etc. As I said, day by day.

  15. tchannon says:

    Surgeon who did the major op. did the examination. Seemed happy, did some stretching, normal after this op. I have no idea what happened, sedated, very gently done, feel fine if tired. Initial result seems to be eating will be easier, restrictions eased. 🙂

    The team at the hospital may suggest some alternate treatments to the team who are dealing with me at a different hospital. Fingers crossed. Lets hope NIH can be avoided. (not invented here)

    DNA targeted, wish that existed, meanwhile vast sums are wasted on bad research, on stuff I dare not mention, PC.