Was Arctic sea ice minimum 2016 on the 2nd Sept?

Posted: September 13, 2016 by tallbloke in sea ice, Thermodynamics

sea-ice-min-16

It certainly looks that way at the moment.

Comments
  1. Richard111 says:

    Hmm.. how many icebreakers on oil field searches have packed in for the winter?

  2. ren says:

    It must be remembered that in the winter polar vortex directly connects the circulation in the stratosphere and the troposphere.
    “Polar vortex, also called circumpolar vortex, polar low, or polar cyclone, large area of persistent low pressure generally located above each of Earth’s polar regions and containing a mass of extremely cold air. The altitude of this cyclone extends from the middle of the troposphere (the lowest level of Earth’s atmosphere, which spans the region from the surface up to 10–18 km [6–11 miles] high) into the stratosphere (the atmospheric layer extending from 10–18 km to about 50 km [30 miles] high).”
    https://www.britannica.com/science/polar-vortex

  3. oldbrew says:

    HMS Terror from the Franklin expedition finally showed up…

    ‘Ship found in Arctic 168 years after doomed Northwest Passage attempt’
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/12/hms-terror-wreck-found-arctic-nearly-170-years-northwest-passage-attempt

    Has average quality video of the underwater wreck which they reckon is in surprisingly good condition.

  4. oldbrew says:

    Paul Homewood: And they estimate that September’s average will be above 2007. What is clear from this graph is that extent has stabilised since 2007.
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/09/13/arctic-ice-extent-may-have-already-hit-minimum/

    My comment: Consistent with ‘the pause’ it would seem. The satellite record since the late 70’s is too short a period to draw any long term conclusions about Arctic sea ice, which is known to have fluctuated in various ways over the last few centuries at least.

  5. tchannon says:

    Several mind come possibilities to such as storm caused ice breakup and subsequent excess drainage of ice from the arctic, perhaps taking decades to renormalise.

    What amused me about that discovery of wreckage from under the ice oldbrew is how come the wreckage is there if the assertion of unprecedental ice melt is correct. About the only alternative I can think of is if it floated in and was dropped by ice.

    Fairly recently I asserted the “pause” is an effect of the circa 22 year solar magnetic cycle impressed on terrestrial temperature. Fourier summation tells the tale graphically. (I’m still highly amused from several years ago on WUWT where Leif showed his ill manners by declaring my mathematics wrong (without specifying how) and where hard example was given was not an inverse transform… a PHd not recognising a basic and one they claim to use! He never apoligised. Probably he was sore over prior things I had done where his peers ended agreeing with me, ouch. Doesn’t mean I am right, sure I make mistakes and so on. Fairly free and kindly bouncing ideas, old school, or at least the better people way, is how things need to be. I sat down with Roger (Tallbloke) a few days ago, chatting, something came up where we differ, smoke but no falling out or bother, for the time be we agree to differ, moreover I have changed a little based on something I learnt)

  6. oldbrew says:

    TC – there’s at least seasonal sea ice at Terror Bay (wreck site).
    http://home.core.com/home/article.php?category=world&article=b44d5e5b82a84162b38133c5222e2e99

    Schimnowski said that mystery might have remained if not for a late-night conversation on one of the search vessels between himself and Sammy Kogvik, an Inuk and Canadian Ranger from Gjoa Haven. The two were on the bridge of the Martin Bergmann, a research vessel, and Kogvik was telling Schimnowski about the history of the shorelines they were sailing past. He started talking about something he had seen seven years ago while snowmobiling across the sea ice of Terror Bay.

    Kogvik recalled how he had looked behind him to check on his hunting partner when he spotted a large pole sticking up out of the ice. The two Inuit stopped and took pictures of what looked like a ship’s mast.

    But when Kogvik got home to Gjoa Haven, he found he had dropped his camera and lost the shots. “He kept the story secret because he didn’t want people not to believe him,” Schimnowski said.

  7. Don Keiller says:

    Sent an email to Professor Wadhams, last week, offering to double my previous public bet of £1000 on his sea ice extent fantasies, to £2000 for next year. Same conditions.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/07/22/professor-peter-wadhams-will-not-bet-on-his-own-sea-ice-predictions/

    Needless to say he has not replied.

  8. tom0mason says:

    I still find it’s peculiar that so much time and effort is spent on watching the Arctic ice.
    Why? Just because J. Hansen said it’s important?
    Does it really give any insight to the climate? Or does it just tell us how the ocean/sea temperatures has changed.
    Is there any real evidence, from this polar watch, that unambiguously tell us where the climate is trending? I for one am very doubtful, especially on these short period observations.
    If all the ice were to go tomorrow — so what? Trading ships would have an easier time…

    Now variations in ice volumes and temperatures on the land around the polar region may tell us much more, IMO.

  9. oldbrew says:

    ‘Does it really give any insight to the climate? Or does it just tell us how the ocean/sea temperatures has changed.’

    It could be telling us how the winds have changed.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/mar/22/wind-sea-ice-loss-arctic

  10. ren says:

    We have a high jump of ice in the central Arctic
    after a multi-day geomagnetic storm.
    ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r11_Central_Arctic_ts_4km.png

  11. oldbrew says:

    ‘Ship Of Fools’ Trapped By Thick Arctic ice In 2016

    Even with a drone to find a route through the ice, and huge amounts of diesel fuel, the only thing that got the Ship Of Fools through was a massive storm which broke up the ice.
    http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/09/14/ship-of-fools-trapped-by-thick-arctic-ice-in-2016/

  12. oldbrew says:

    Arctic Ice Stabilized Over Past 10 Years – Sea Surface Temps Plummet 3°C With Approaching La Niña

    SOI: ‘Currently it’s at +10.6 and thus clearly in the La Niña range of over +7 and rising steeply’
    http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/17/arctic-ice-stabilized-over-past-10-years-sea-surface-temps-plummet-3c-with-approaching-la-nina/

    Currently the ice area is well over 4 Wadhams (1 million sq kilometers) thick. (One reader suggested using “Wadhams” as a unit for sea ice area in order to honor Peter Wadhams’s spectacularly failed prediction of an ice free Arctic by now.)

    Your Time Is Up “Professor” Wadhams
    It is now exactly four years ago that you forecast the demise of Arctic sea ice this summer
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/09/17/your-time-is-up-professor-wadhams/

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