Nicola Scafetta: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene.

Posted: September 22, 2016 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, Celestial Mechanics, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics, Temperature

fig1-scafetta

 

Nicola Scafetta writes:

Dear all,

it was a pleasure to meet you at London. Some of you asked me about my paper in press about a link between astronomical, solar and climate oscillations. Here it is:

Scafetta, N., Milani, F., Antonio Bianchini, A., Ortolani, S.: On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene. Earth-Science Reviews 162, 24–43, 2016. There is a free access to the article, and is valid for anybody until November 10, 2016 by using this link  http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TlSB2weQTZcD

(Permanent copy here)

The importance of the article is that it demonstrates quite clearly that the long Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and solar records such as a quasi 20-year oscillation, a quasi 60-year oscillation, the 82-97 year Gleissberg oscillation and the 159-185 year Jose oscillation (and others).

This paper complements many other papers on the subject such as my previous large study that I also presented in my talk. (BEGINS AT 4:30)

Scafetta, N., 2013. Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semiempirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles. Earth-Science Reviews 126, 321-357.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.08.008 https://arxiv.org/abs/1310.7554

That demonstrates that none of the IPCC models reconstruct the climate oscillations, which, on the contrary, are linked to astronomical oscillations. Models to reconstruct and forecast the global surface temperature are provided as well.

I hope  that it may be of interest.

Comments
  1. Nicola Scafetta says:

    Roger, thank you.
    It was nice to meet you in London

  2. tallbloke says:

    Nicola, it was such a pleasure meeting you at last. I hope you’ll send me a copy of your up to date prediction graphic from your presentation for me to feature.

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    Looking forward to exploring this when I have a few more free minutes than today.
    Thanks for the link.

    Meanwhile an update:

    I have new results on El Nino Modoki Index …and you can be absolutely sure it will be minus the california deception artist spin!

    Maybe we can convince the Rest of the US to put those west coast clowns in check.

    Cheers!

  4. Reblogged this on CRIKEY !#&@ …… IT'S THE WEATHER CYCLES and commented:
    NICOLA SCAFETTA SEPTEMBER 2016 “Hallstatt oscillation (about 2318 year period), which is observed in climate and solar records is a major stable resonance of the solar system. The paper also evaluates the other major planetary stable resonances and we found all other typical oscillations found in climate and solar records such as a quasi 20-year oscillation, a quasi 60-year oscillation, the 82-97 year Gleissberg oscillation and the 159-185 year Jose oscillation (and others).”

  5. what is a ‘ gravitational/electromagnetic pump’?

    gravitation needs mass. Do cosmic rays have mass?

  6. oldbrew says:

    From the paper:
    ‘only one resonance falls within the Hallstatt time scale of 2100–2500 years and, in general, for periods larger than 200 years. This is a combination of the orbital periods of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune’

    Another possibility…

    The period when the orientation of the conjunctions returns to the same position works out at:
    Uranus-Neptune = once every 4270 years
    Jupiter-Saturn = 41 times every 2503 years = 12 de Vries cycles

    The 2503 years could be a boundary, as could half of 4270 i.e. 2135 years.
    Quote: ‘the Hallstatt time scale of 2100–2500 years’

  7. Geoff Sharp says:

    oldbrew,

    The mathematical games can be fun, but really offer no insight.

    Especially if considering the outer 4.

    JPL gives us the data that the outer 4 never repeat, but for the past 11,000 years perhaps they can get close within the so called 4627 year cycle.

    In apparent contradiction to most on this site, it seems to be very clear that harmonic cycles are not the driver, but instead the opportune alignments that come from the clockwork mechanism that is the outer planets rules.

  8. p.g.sharrow says:

    @weathercycles says:
    September 23, 2016 at 8:18 am
    what is a ‘ gravitational/electromagnetic pump’?
    gravitation needs mass. Do cosmic rays have mass?

    mass/inertia is a characteristic that mater exhibits but may not be internal to the mater.
    gravity is a force that acts on mater to accelerate it toward other mater and again may not be internal.

    ‘ gravitational/electromagnetic pump’ is a description of the action on mater…pg

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    I’ve illustrated it …but I think that nonetheless people forget about the slip of the long JEV cycle on J-S geometry …so here are some slip-cycle derivations to go with past illustrations for quick review.

    Based on 1/JEV:
    (11.862615)*(11.06964992) / (11.862615 – 11.06964992) = 165.5999728
    (11.862615)*(29.447498) / (11.862615 – 29.447498) = 19.86503587
    (11.862615)*(9.932517933) / (11.862615 – 9.932517933) = 61.04648218
    (165.5999728)*(61.04648218) / (165.5999728 – 61.04648218) = 96.69017963
    (165.5999728)*(61.04648218) / ( (165.5999728 + 61.04648218) / 2 ) = 89.20762329
    (89.20762329)*(96.69017963) / (89.20762329 – 96.69017963) = 1152.747903
    2305.495806

    Based on (φ/Φ)/(J+S):
    (11.862615)*(11.06923834) / (11.862615 – 11.06923834) = 165.5079089
    (11.862615)*(29.447498) / (11.862615 – 29.447498) = 19.86503587
    (11.862615)*(9.932517933) / (11.862615 – 9.932517933) = 61.04648218
    (165.5079089)*(61.04648218) / (165.5079089 – 61.04648218) = 96.72159311
    (165.5079089)*(61.04648218) / ( (165.5079089 + 61.04648218) / 2 ) = 89.19425983
    (89.19425983)*(96.72159311) / (89.19425983 – 96.72159311) = 1146.091263
    2292.182527

  10. oldbrew says:

    From Rick Salvador’s PRP paper:
    ‘Another well-known oscillation found in solar records is
    the de Vries cycle of 208 yr (see McCracken et al., 2013).
    The frequency of 1253 yr, together with the Jose frequency of
    178.8 yr, produces a beat of 208 yr and is used in the model.’
    http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/117/2013/prp-1-117-2013.pdf

    1253 years is about half of the 2500 years quoted in the Scafetta paper.

    126 Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions = 2503 years.
    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/why-phi-jupiter-saturn-and-the-de-vries-cycle/

    It’s also 41 x 61.04648218 (see Paul Vaughan’s comment above).

  11. ren says:

    Since yesterday geomagnetic storm.
    http://earthquake-report.com/2016/09/24/very-strong-earthquake-ndoi-island-fiji-on-september-24-2016-2/
    Currently they are working coronal holes on the Sun. To radiation from coronal holes reacts strongly magnetosphere of the Earth and occur geomagnetic storms.

  12. dscott says:

    Nicola, I notice your first chart indicates a peak in C14 at the left end and then trends negative across to the right. Was the left side indeed the peak at 10 kya ago? Does this trend follow the 42 kya obliquity cycle or the 94 kya eccentricity cycle?

    Since we are on the down slope of the obliquity cycle heading toward the 22 degree minimum, I would expect this negative trend to continue.

  13. Nicola Scafetta says:

    to dscott: we briefly addressed the long trend in the C-14 record. Perhaps you are right. However that record appears to present also a 6000-7000 yr cycle.

    To the other commenters, oldbrew etc.: I think that we need to be careful when dealing with numbers obtained by combining orbital orbits. One needs to always realize and take into account that we are dealing with a physical phenomenon and merely math games may not have any physical meaning.

    In the paper we looked for an entire family of harmonics known as the stable resonances generated by Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus. The most simple stable resonance is the synodic period between two planets: e.g. the 20-year conjunction cycle between Jupiter and Saturn. However, the concept of stable resonance extends that definition to any number of bodies.

    The stable resonances have he mathematical and physical property to be independent of a rotating observer. This means that any forcing working at those frequencies would be equally felt by any rotating system yielding to an additive effect facilitating a collective synchronization effect: think at its potential effects on the differential rotation of the sun of in the Parker spiral pf the heliosphere.

    In the paper, we have not only demonstrated that the Hallstatt oscillation is the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets, but we also constructed specific astronomical records linked to the dynamics of the solar system which not only show macroscopically an Hallstatt oscillation but they also reveal all other stable resonances.

  14. Paul Vaughan says:

    Just as exploration and science differ fundamentally, so do aggregation criteria and physics.

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    Aggregation and aliasing reminder:

    derivation of Halstatt (2308.830916), D-O (1498.562242), & de Vries (208.860626) from annual aliasing of volatility structure of JEV, J-S, & U-N:

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-19/#comment-117450

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