Record drop in global temperatures as El Niño warming ends 

Posted: November 28, 2016 by oldbrew in climate, ENSO, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, opinion, Temperature, Uncertainty
Tags: ,

Credit: NASA climatekids

Credit: NASA climatekids


Another round of claims and counter-claims about climate is underway as natural variation takes its course. Talk of records often relates only to the satellite era.
H/T GWPF

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record, reports David Rose in The Mail on Sunday. 

According to satellite data, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Niño. The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.

The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Niño – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.

Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.

Others have argued that the records were caused by El Niño, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans. The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

Big El Niños always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Niño was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Niña event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal. This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Niño and La Niña. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Niño did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Niño in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Niño.

‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Niños…However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Niño.’

The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Niño meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Niño.

The data clearly shows El Niño for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.

Source: Record Drop In Global Temperatures As El Niño Warming Ends | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    ‘This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Niño did not vanish until the middle of the year.’

    But the margins are so small and the calculation methods so controversial that such claims would probably come under the heading of ‘spurious accuracy’ anyway.

  2. Jaime Jessop says:

    What matters is where global temperatures go now. The ’98 ENSO event (El Nino/La Nina) elevated global temperatures to a new plateau about 0.2C higher than global temperature just before the 1998 El Nino. If the Pause returns, and persists over the coming years, then obviously, this will mean that global temperatures have not shifted upwards with the latest super El Nino – hence no aggregate global warming. If (horror!) global temperatures start to steadily decline starting in 2017, then we can say that global cooling is occurring. Either way, climate scientists will be scratching around for new explanations to explain the lack of warming. Only if GMST settles at a new high level or even starts to accelerate again in the coming years can climate scientists claim their prognostications of thermageddon are back on track.

  3. AlecM says:

    The answer to these events is very easy to understand. Much of the 1983 – 1997 warming was anthropogenic, but not CO2 driven. This was superimposed on the high solar magnetic field decreasing cosmic ray cloud formation. To prove this check out cloud area and albedo data.

    The accumulated heat in the oceans has now mostly dissipated as their currents have changed to push the energy to the Arctic, thereby radiating it to Space. We are now heading into a new LIA.

  4. tom0mason says:

    ‘”The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,” he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.
    Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Niños…
    This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Niño did not vanish until the middle of the year.’

    Yes keep shouting Gavin, as Eurasia freezes, China is engulfed in snow, Tokyo has its first November settling snow in some 147 years, Tasmania has November snow, snow in southern Morocco, Iran’s citrus crop destroyed by snow, South America suffering an extended Winter, and North America breaks records with low temperatures and massive volumes of snow, etc., etc. See https://iceagenow.info/
    And the extended forecast till the end of the year? Cold, cold cold. See https://www.youtube.com/embed/J73LQF6JyUc

    So lets all help Gavin as much as possible, and repeat his daft prognosis of the year being the hottest ever, so the everyone can realize that NASA, and specifically Gavin as a civil servants working there, is spouting nonsense.
    [Eppur si muove] “And yet it moves” and moves down say the satellites…

    I hope I win the lottery soon…
    If I had the money I would have adverts put on all the buses in Britain, New York and other Northern states, Tokyo, Beijing, etc., directly quoting Gavin’s ridiculous claim.

  5. oldbrew says:

    Tom: here’s a way to get fake news to travel fast, especially to US online audiences 😉

    A significant amount of fraudulent news during the 2016 United States election cycle came from adolescent youths in Macedonia attempting to rapidly profit from those believing their falsehoods. An investigation by BuzzFeed revealed that over 100 websites spreading fraudulent articles supportive of Donald Trump were created by teenagers in the town of Veles, Macedonia.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fake_news_website#Macedonia

    Quote: Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg must admit the website is a media company: “But once Zuckerberg admits he’s actually running one of the most powerful media brands on the planet, he has to get more aggressive about promoting real news and weeding out hoaxers and charlatans. The alternative is to watch Facebook’s own credibility decline.”

    Facebook has credibility? Who knew😎

    But we do know that ‘weeding out hoaxers and charlatans’ can be a problem 😐

  6. oldbrew says:

    Jaime Jessop says: ‘Either way, climate scientists will be scratching around for new explanations to explain the lack of warming.’

    How does ‘just a blip – doom delayed by [insert number] years’ – sound? May lack originality perhaps 😦

  7. Ron Clutz says:

    Here is what Rose is talking about.

    October 2016 Continental Rankings
    (warmest rank out of 107 years)

    North America 7th
    South America 15th
    Europe 41st
    Africa 2nd
    Asia 69th
    Oceania 44th

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-regions/201610

  8. tchannon says:

    All of these temperature spikes have a damped oscillatory characteristic including a temperature undershoot. Some degree of quantification of characteristics ought to be possible.

    These events have a similar characteristic in time (erratic nature) as laboratory experiments involving top heated containers / bodies of water in a gravity field. Top heated is rarely examined since this is an unusual case in the real world. This seems to include “burping” heat, related to variable top heat.

    I have on a number of occasions asserted that the earth is a spinning body, dynamic, with very different conditions day and night. In consequence atmospheric heating takes place far in excess of the simplistic as assumed by simple physics and would also apply if the atmosphere comprised purely of simple gas, a widely disputed case in many quarters.

    Figures 2 and 3 of the following paper makes a simple case in support of my assertion both for air and for water. The rest of the paper is of no interest.

    A Review of Thermal Rectification Observations and Models in Solid Materials
    N.A. Roberts, D.G. Walker ∗
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN USA, 37325

    “Abstract
    Thermal rectification is a phenomenon in which thermal transport along a specific axis is dependent upon the sign of the temperature gradient or heat current.
    …”
    http://telab.vuse.vanderbilt.edu/docs/roberts10_IJTS.pdf

  9. tom0mason says:

    @oldbrew
    November 28, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    “An investigation by BuzzFeed revealed that over 100 websites spreading fraudulent articles supportive of Donald Trump were created by teenagers in the town of Veles, Macedonia.”

    Interesting. Has this BuzzFeed any credibility? It is after all verified by hahahaha …
    “The Guardian performed its own independent investigation and reached the same conclusion as BuzzFeed
    Two words I find very hard to swallow when talking about The Guardian are ‘independent investigation’.

    At least at iceagenow.info append links to the reported events at local sites so that people can check on the information.

  10. tom0mason says:

    Rem Rieder , USA TODAY 8:07 a.m. EDT June 16, 2015

    BuzzFeed. The New York-based website best known for its viral content has hired former Guardian editor Janine Gibson to head up its United Kingdom edition.

  11. oldbrew says:

    tom: BBC radio news had a reporter in Veles today interviewing some of the ‘culprits’.

    They had no problem admitting to their Facebook tricks, also saying how much money they made. Their attitude was that if feeding dodgy stories to US voters could turn a profit then why not?

    PS I assume the BBC was not indulging in fake news.

  12. tom0mason says:

    As both Mark Zuckerberg, and the limited company that owns The Guardian are cap-in-hand with a Mr. G. Soros I decline to interact with either.

  13. tom0mason says:

    oldbrew says:
    November 28, 2016 at 5:28 pm

    The BBC is an originator of fake news!

    BBC World Service continual vilification of Trump, it’s anti BREXIT stance, and apologists for Castro.
    Would their AGW reports stand the test of real science?
    Horrorbin as a reporter of repute?
    How did you like their piece recently on TV about polar bears of Hudson Bay starving?

  14. tom0mason says:

    Oldbrew the only reason fake news is in the media is that —

    1. It feeds many left of center MSM news agenda, and …

    2. The same MSM outlet are very pissed that 2 amateurs have admitted doing what the MSM has been doing for years and showing how easy it is to do. The fact that the amateurs admit making money also embarrasses the MSM because again, that is why MSM use these same tricks.

  15. oldbrew says:

    ‘The BBC is an originator of fake news!’

    Well, that’s another story…

  16. tom0mason says:

    Oldbrew
    I get what you’re saying that it would be cheaper to use internet methods to get the message out.
    I agree and leave it to other to do, they’ll make a better job of it than I with my failing writing skills.

    No, I like the idea of grinding the noses of AGW advocates and Greenie snobsters in the granite hard message they would not miss written on the sides of a bus gingerly progressing through the snow before them.

  17. […] Source: Record drop in global temperatures as El Niño warming ends  | Tallbloke’s Talkshop […]

  18. oldbrew says:

    German Professor: NASA Has Fiddled Climate Data On ‘Unbelievable’ Scale
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/24/german-professor-nasa-fiddled-climate-data-unbelievable-scale/

    But you already knew that.

  19. ren says:

    What will be to the theory of AGW if over 30 years from 2010 polar vortex will be weak and low solar activity?
    Abstract.
    In this work we continue studying possible reasons for the temporal variability of longterm
    effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower
    atmosphere circulation. It was revealed that the detected earlier ~60-year oscillations of the
    amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes are
    closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. A roughly 60-
    year periodicity was found in the vortex strength affecting the evolution of the large-scale
    atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. It was shown that the sign reversals
    of the correlations between tropospheric pressure and SA/GCR variations coincide well with the
    transitions between the different states of the vortex. Most pronounced SA/GCR influence on the
    development of extratropical baric systems is observed when the vortex is strong. The results
    obtained suggest that the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex plays an important part in the
    mechanism of solar-atmospheric links.
    http://geo.phys.spbu.ru/materials_of_a_conference_2012/STP2012/Veretenenko_%20et_all_Geocosmos2012proceedings.pdf

    This is happening currently.
    Forecaster Todd Crawford said a weak Polar vortex – cold air sinking down from the Arctic regions – will trigger the cold spell.
    He said: Because of the weak stratospheric polar vortex, there is also an increasingly good change of a sudden stratospheric warming sometime within the next four to six weeks that would ramp up the cold risks later in the winter.

    The colder pattern that started in October has persisted into November, this is a fairly clear sign that our original ideas for this winter were a bit off base.

    This year is showing a stark difference to the end of last winter which was unusually mild and stormy.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/736962/UK-weather-forecast-latest-snow-ice-temperature-met-office

  20. ren says:

    Polar vortex of about 26500 m.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-26.82,89.75,343
    Another strong jump of the solar wind speed, which breaks the polar vortex.


    You can see another wave that reached the stratosphere.

  21. TLMango says:

    Hey ren,
    These waves of solar wind seem to be
    coming every 13 to 15 days. It will be great
    to learn what role solar wind plays in the
    outflow at the poles?

  22. oldbrew says:

    VILIFYING DAVID ROSE: ATTACKING THE MESSENGER OVER SHARP DROP IN LAND TEMPS
    Date: 04/12/16 Jaimie Jessop, Climate Scepticism

    http://www.thegwpf.com/vilifying-david-rose-for-reporting-decline-in-global-land-temps/

    Analysis of the claims and counter claims etc.

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