Tim writes quickly to get this article out,
The Met Office updated their areal datasets promptly this month end so I have been able to update my z-score derivation before the weekend passes.
November just gone was slightly dry, sunshine was a little above normal, max and mean temperature was normal, minimum was more noticeably low.
The dryness perhaps fits with the failure of the south westerly Atlantic airstream to deliver much in the way of autumn wind and rain storms across the whole country. If you look at the shape of the annual curves you will see we are around peak wet at this time of the year, yet this year we have have a lot of the dry east and north winds.
With that fits more sunshine. Less clear is why temperatures were normal except for minimums, night-times. Less than usual wind would play a part by allowing still air radiative cooling.
First set of files
85 plots in 5 PDF for all areal UK regions are inside this .ZIP archive (9.2Mbyte).
If you want to read what the Met Office news team have published on their blog, here are the articles. A fundamental difference between what I am doing and what the Met Office do is my removing of time-of-year effect and to z-score. (statistical measure) whereas the Met Office will write about extremes which are normal, summer is hot, winter is cold. The climate change fuss is about globally abnormal therefore seasonal effects are irrelevant.
All this has to assume the areal data and the way the UK is chopped is right. I suspect this is not so good.
“overall has been a fairly average season”
The next Met Office article if you are unaware of what I am doing is sharply in disagreement but in reality we agree provided the context is the same. With this in mind I have software which translates the main data into ranking tables. Probably counter-intuitively my work does not change ranking.
On the downside there are 90 files of ranking data, it depends on your context, for example for East Anglia there are five files: rain, sun, max, mean and min temperature. Each file is textual for spreadsheet import. Columns run A through BT, 110 rows.
Perhaps surprisingly these tables are quite interesting, kind of show the shape and variability.
Highlighted area is for part of September (month 9), UK, where the Met Office say the temperature was the second warmest; the agreement is exact but it is also the 35th all time warmest for any month. This is of course allowing for the inadequacy of my work, best I can do.
Ranking data files areal-month-ranks-2016.zip (1.3 Mbyte)
My results are in sharp disagreement with the following linked Met Office claim. The reason is quite subtle, about the thought locus. The Met Office in those articles deals in the short term, whereas I am attempting to deal in the global, the overall. I am trying to meet the claims about literally global so I am not interested in seasonal effects nor absolute values, merely some kind of dimensionless statistical value.
As it turns out, deliberately so on my part, the rankings are not altered. I have an additional computer program which produces ranking data from the main data. These are textual tables for spreadsheet import. Unfortunately and because there are many different focuses of attention there are 90 files. For example for East Anglia and then the 5 different parameters: rain, sun, high, mean, low temperature, same for each region. The tables run column A through BT, about 110 rows.
For areal UK mean temperature September 2016 did not make the top 20 of warmest. The reason is subtle, the Met Office are writing about Septembers whereas I am dealing with seasonless, any month of the year. (using mean areal data the “since 2010” hottest month was December 2015)
“Despite a mixture of weather across the UK, two warm spells around the 9th and 13th of the month helped boost temperatures, with this September provisionally the equal-second warmest for the UK since records began in 1910. Provisional stats show the mean temperature for September to be 14.6C tied with 1949 but behind 2006 (15.2C).”
Post by Tim
I am going into hospital Monday 5th Dec for a minor operation under anaesthetic, hopefully back out late this week. Nothing to do with cancer. Any edits or work needed, Roger or Stuart will field it.
FYI it’s now a year since I was diagnosed with oesophageal cancer, still alive, last scan I know about showed clear, pending scan result I don’t know about, I’m terrified. See the cancer surgeon later this month. Prognosis is officially poor. I can hope and pray.