Autumn weather 2016

Posted: December 4, 2016 by tchannon in Analysis, climate, weather

Tim writes quickly to get this article out,

The Met Office updated their areal datasets promptly this month end so I have been able to update my z-score derivation before the weekend passes.

November just gone was slightly dry, sunshine was a little above normal, max and mean temperature was normal, minimum was more noticeably low.

The dryness perhaps fits with the failure of the south westerly Atlantic airstream to deliver much in the way of autumn wind and rain storms across the whole country. If you look at the shape of the annual curves you will see we are around peak wet at this time of the year, yet this year we have have a lot of the dry east and north winds.

With that fits more sunshine. Less clear is why temperatures were normal except for minimums, night-times. Less than usual wind would play a part by allowing still air radiative cooling.

First set of files
85 plots in 5 PDF for all areal UK regions are inside this .ZIP archive (9.2Mbyte).

If you want to read what the Met Office news team have published on their blog, here are the articles. A fundamental difference between what I am doing and what the Met Office do is my removing of time-of-year effect and to z-score. (statistical measure) whereas the Met Office will write about extremes which are normal, summer is hot, winter is cold. The climate change fuss is about globally abnormal therefore seasonal effects are irrelevant.

All this has to assume the areal data and the way the UK is chopped is right. I suspect this is not so good.

“overall has been a fairly average season”
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/29/autumn-and-november-2016-statistics/

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/10/17/october-sunny-and-dry-for-many-so-far/

The next Met Office article if you are unaware of what I am doing is sharply in disagreement but in reality we agree provided the context is the same. With this in mind I have software which translates the main data into ranking tables. Probably counter-intuitively my work does not change ranking.

On the downside there are 90 files of ranking data, it depends on your context, for example for East Anglia there are five files: rain, sun, max, mean and min temperature. Each file is textual for spreadsheet import. Columns run A through BT, 110 rows.

Perhaps surprisingly these tables are quite interesting, kind of show the shape and variability.

Image

Highlighted area is for part of September (month 9), UK, where the Met Office say the temperature was the second warmest; the agreement is exact but it is also the 35th all time warmest for any month. This is of course allowing for the inadequacy of my work, best I can do.

Ranking data files areal-month-ranks-2016.zip (1.3 Mbyte)

My results are in sharp disagreement with the following linked Met Office claim. The reason is quite subtle, about the thought locus. The Met Office in those articles deals in the short term, whereas I am attempting to deal in the global, the overall. I am trying to meet the claims about literally global so I am not interested in seasonal effects nor absolute values, merely some kind of dimensionless statistical value.

As it turns out, deliberately so on my part, the rankings are not altered. I have an additional computer program which produces ranking data from the main data. These are textual tables for spreadsheet import. Unfortunately and because there are many different focuses of attention there are 90 files. For example for East Anglia and then the 5 different parameters: rain, sun, high, mean, low temperature, same for each region. The tables run column A through BT, about 110 rows.

For areal UK mean temperature September 2016 did not make the top 20 of warmest. The reason is subtle, the Met Office are writing about Septembers whereas I am dealing with seasonless, any month of the year. (using mean areal data the “since 2010” hottest month was December 2015)

“Despite a mixture of weather across the UK, two warm spells around the 9th and 13th of the month helped boost temperatures, with this September provisionally the equal-second warmest for the UK since records began in 1910. Provisional stats show the mean temperature for September to be 14.6C tied with 1949 but behind 2006 (15.2C).”
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/10/17/october-sunny-and-dry-for-many-so-far/

Post by Tim

I am going into hospital Monday 5th Dec for a minor operation under anaesthetic, hopefully back out late this week. Nothing to do with cancer. Any edits or work needed, Roger or Stuart will field it.

FYI it’s now a year since I was diagnosed with oesophageal cancer, still alive, last scan I know about showed clear, pending scan result I don’t know about, I’m terrified. See the cancer surgeon later this month. Prognosis is officially poor. I can hope and pray.

Comments
  1. Sorry to hear your news Tim, I hope it all turns out well.

  2. Jerry says:

    Tim: I am sorry to read of your cancer diagnosis. I will say a prayer for successful surgery and recovery. Jerry Lundry.

  3. tchannon says:

    Not sure I should have written the coda, it’s 6:30am, was going to remove it. Too late now.

    In a way I am steeling myself to resist being over-squeamish about advertising I have cancer and how it is with treatment etc, etc. … because people don’t talk on what is a very hard subject for some others to read, yet much ought to be written down to help others.

    I’m slowly improving. Being able to put together blog stuff is progress. Got my hair back… turned curly. 🙂

    I’m one of the survivors who keeps getting told how well I look and how cheerful I am. Crazy because these people mean it. I joke a lot and pull legs (easier that teeth).

    Out of interest for those far away, 6:50am, dark outside, street lights are on, thermometer shows -2.1C. Weather is about the change from benign cold to at a guess warm wet windy.

    Eaten already, not allowed anything now until after the operation. I’ll be on drip… with feed, no big deal given what I have been through this year! The operation back during June is a whole world different, days in intensive care. That’s a really odd place.

    Now I must shower, finish packing and await transport. Admission is at 11am.

  4. craigm350 says:

    Hopes and prayers with you Tim

  5. oldbrew says:

    Best of luck Tim.

    Re: ‘November just gone was slightly dry, sunshine was a little above normal’

    The Met Office charts for sunshine and rain show a clear difference between Scotland (and N.I.) and England/Wales.

    MetO comments:
    ‘Scotland had the largest deviation from the average with mean temperatures -1.6°C lower than the 4.9°C long term average. Scotland has also had its sunniest November since records began in 1929 with 65.8 hours of sunshine.’ [bold added]

    http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/29/autumn-and-november-2016-statistics/

    As a result Scotland was also a lot drier than the November norm. Probably linked to the lack of the usual seasonal Atlantic storminess?

  6. Whatever happened to the mid November polar storms, worst for years, that the right wing press were touting in October
    ———-

    express
    In stark contrast to last year, which was one of the mildest winter’s on record, extreme cold is forecast to set in at the start of November.

    People in the north have been warned to batten down the hatches for “potent” winter blasts, blizzards and heavy snow across the country.

    In another twist of misery any mild spells will be ravaged by storms unleashing torrential downpours, gales and flooding.

    James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the first bitter blast will hit the north in as early as November.

    He said the next four months could be plagued by heavy and persistent snow broken up by storms and heavy rain.
    ———————-

    Still if they predict it every year they are bound to hit lucky sometime

  7. tchannon says:

    Done by 3pm, queue jump, on oxygen, no pain. Good.

  8. tchannon says:

    Stage 2, nurse appears 5:45am, eek, this will hurt, been here before small time. I seen to be the first victim.

  9. Zeke says:

    Thank you Tim, I have been thinking about you for the last couple of days and praying for you too.

    I wish I could give you a hug. Though you don’t seem like the hugging type. 😦

    We’ll see you after the surgery.

  10. Zeke says:

    “In a way I am steeling myself to resist being over-squeamish about advertising I have cancer and how it is with treatment etc, etc. … because people don’t talk on what is a very hard subject for some others to read, yet much ought to be written down to help others.” ~ tchannon

    Sharing this is part of fighting it, and we are going to be hoping with you for a perfectly successful treatment and complete healing!

    But you have to forgive people, too. Most people think they are going to live forever–or close to it. I swear they do! When you get a diagnosis like that, you realize that you really are on borrowed time. It refocuses you on loved ones and what is important–and that is something I needed. I think about the afterlife a lot too but no one I know does. Good on ya for facing this, and “pulling legs” through it all. I was told I needed drastic surgery, or radiation, and I could not go through with the treatments. I cancelled both times. That was 5 years ago. Mine is Grade I, not II and I knew the doctors would only redact part of it, despite their positive language. It takes enormous courage, and may God use all of this for your good.

  11. tchannon says:

    Thank you for the kind words.

    The operation was carried out earlier than scheduled, “you are next”, no problems from anaesthetic or post operative pain in the usual sense. Unfortunately the effect of the operation was not so good but might be good in a week or so. I’ve been discharged from hospital to await a reduction in likely swelling. I’m praying this will come to pass, make life more comfortable.

    Over time recovery from the oesophageal cancer operation and radio/chemotherapy has crept on. Whilst I was in the hospital, (not where the cancer op was done) this time I was able to walk and climb 4 flights of stairs moderately briskly… a bit out of breath and with a fast pulse rate at the top, nothing excessive. Not so many my age etc. would do this. OTOH I still can’t lift heavy things, apparently it takes a long time for internal tissues to heal.

    I hurt my back, probably by twisting, shortly before going into hospital. This was the source of pain and discomfort. Silly thing to happen.

  12. tallbloke says:

    Tim, great to hear they let you home so quickly. Take it easy fella.

  13. tchannon says:

    Thanks Rog.

    Little bit tired, been under anaesthetic, bedlam in the small ward. In a way things are easy since I am so used to hospital day to day workings.

    This time I took in noise cancelling headphones, not perfect but give some relief from some machinery, the general hubbub. I was reading or trying to, bluetooth headphones on, some music from 4G streaming radio. Then I came to, hand across the book holding the page open, it was dark, someone was gently waking me up, the regular round of blood pressure checks and so on. I’d fallen asleep right through lights out. Quite a shock when I slipped off the headphones.

  14. tchannon says:

    Bad news.

    As I feared it has got out, the surgery and recent treatment seems to have been successful, early chemotherapy was not. The cancer included mutants resistant to chemo and a later chemo.

    Based on a new CT scan it is in my bones.

    Apart from research stuff, my oncologist spends a good deal of his time in an Oxford university building, there is nothing curative to be done. There is very little chance.

    Bit of a pisser. What now? I have no idea.

  15. Zeke says:

    Dear Tim,

    I am so sorry. I am so sorry about this result. From what you say about the CT scans and the research, it is now completely out of human hands. But that doesn’t mean it is hopeless. Physically there may be no known cure but we also never know the future. There may still be a physical healing. Spiritually, there is still so much ahead. Jesus said, “Seek first His kingdom and His righteousness, and all else shall be added to you.” Get to know Him in the book of Mark, trust Him, and let Him decide.

    My condition is also in the bones and soft tissue. When people think about what they had hoped for this lifetime — if they ever bother to enunciate it — I imagine most might say they would like to live to be 80, and then die peacefully in their sleep with loved ones near by. For me, my condition is probably going to take me long before that. But something brilliant has happened. I have experienced — within less than 50 years — all of the beauty, power, love and accomplishment that would have been spread over that long lifespan. I believe this is what is meant in Proverbs: “The fear of the Lord prolongs days.” And, “For by me your days will be multiplied, And years of life will be added to you.”
    Y’shua said, “I have come that they may have life, and have it more abundantly.” In other words, He gives what 80 trips around the sun can never give. Eternal life, and abundant life. But sometimes abundant life is jammed into a much shorter lifespan than we expected….

    It is such frightening and awful news. Sharing the sorrow with you. Asking “What next?” with you, Tim. Paulina.

  16. p.g.sharrow says:

    There is a treatment that has been used for thousands of years and is often successful where modern medicine fails. The Cannabis plant is a wondrous gift from GOD…pg

  17. tallbloke says:

    Hang in there my friend. I’ll be on the phone again very soon.

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