El Nino to El Nino – no net global warming

Posted: January 23, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, data, ENSO, Natural Variation

Comparing the actual data to the forecasts of climate models is also embarrassing for those obsessed with climate warming.



The Earth experienced two super El Ninos recently: 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. It was expected that 2016 would be the hottest year in the satellite record which begins in 1979. It was, but by only 0.02°C over 1998. That is not statistically significant according to Dr. Roy Spencer, keeper of the UAH satellite system data. (The margin of error is 0.1°C, much larger than the difference between the El Nino years.) The graph above shows the UAH results. A separate satellite analysis by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) came to the same conclusion.

Satellites measure the temperature of the lower troposphere, the portion of the atmosphere where weather takes place. These measurements give a more realistic picture of global temperature than do surface measurements. Essentially, global temperature now is the same as it was nearly 18 years ago.

The earlier El Nino had a sharp drop off as a strong La…

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  1. Ron Clutz says:

    Moreover sea surface temps show how 2015 and 2016 warming came from the oceans. HadSST3 is now complete for 2016.


  2. oldbrew says:

    Good point Ron. Climate obsessives will have to duck and weave even more to keep the man-made alarm narrative from sinking.

  3. ren says:

    Operational SST Anomaly Charts for 2017.

  4. ren says:

    There are very strong jumping SOI, which I think is a result of the descent jet stream from north to south.

  5. ren says:

    “Since Oct. 1, total precipitation in the Sierra Nevada has been soaring at rates similar to the wettest winters in the modern record: 1982-83 in the northern and central Sierra and 1968-69 in the southern Sierra.
    As of last week, Lake Shasta, the states largest reservoir and a major source of water for San Joaquin Valley agriculture, is 82% full and releasing water to create more storage room. Oroville, which supplies the State Water Project, is 77% full and also making releases.”
    Ozone shows the course of the jet stream. Continued to rain in California.

  6. ren says:

    Another strong decrease in the speed of the solar wind. Visible stagnation in circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.

  7. tom0mason says:

    Finally the wheels are definitely wobbling on the UN-IPCC and it unproven AGW meme of CO2 causing warming in the real world. Next to UK government to rescind all AGW actions and inform the UN that their theory, and the presumption about CO2, is wrong?
    We can but hope.
    In 600million years of the earth’s climate history with CO2 up to 7000ppm and no catastrophic run-away global warming has ever occurred. What else is needed?