How the recent El Niño saved climate models 

Posted: March 14, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, Critique, ENSO, modelling, opinion
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Credit: livescience.com

Once the El Niño crutch is kicked away, what have climate models got left in terms of warming apart from ‘the pause’? Not a lot, according to this analysis.
H/T GWPF

El Niños can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least, says Dr. David Whitehouse.

The message one is trying to get across when communicating science can depend much on what one doesn’t say. Leaving something vital out can make all the difference and when it’s done it can make scientists look like politicians, although not sophisticated ones.

As an example of what I mean consider the El Niño phenomenon – a short-term oceanographic weather event. The El Niño can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least.

It is obvious that computer models are running hotter than the observations over the past 30 years, but add the recent 2015-6 El Niño and things look much better. Let me show you an example of this.

Recently a group of academics kindly produced a graph intended to “help” journalists. They labeled it, “selflessly helping the Mail Online to improve their science coverage.” It shows how the HadCRUT4 global surface temperature data is “still rising” which is laid over climate models showing how accurately the models simulate the data.

It is a classic example of misinformation by omission, or in other words how to enlist the short-term 2015-6 El Niño weather event to rescue long-term computer models. It is a prime example of bad science communication.

Also shown is how this trick can be applied to satellite data. Let’s see what it looks like when the unmarked El Niño on the graph starts to come down, as it has done.

Continued here

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    the uncertainty and error margins associated with modeling the radiative energy changes in the Earth system are 10 to 100 times greater than the entirety of the forcing attributed to CO2 changes.

    – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/13/uncertainties-errors-in-radiative-forcing-estimates-10-100-times-larger-than-entire-radiative-effect-of-increasing-co2/

  2. oldbrew says:

    Spring decides not to start early in N. East US…

    Winter Storm Stella Shuts Down Cities, Strands Thousands of Travelers, Kills 2 in Wisconsin
    Mar 14 2017

    Nearly 6,000 flights on U.S. airlines scheduled for Tuesday have been canceled, according to FlightAware.com. An additional 1,770 flights have been delayed. This has left thousands stranded at airports across the nation.

    Public schools in New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and elsewhere were closed Tuesday. The above-ground subway service in New York is also closed.

    http://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-winter-storm-stella-news-updates

  3. oldbrew says:

    NASA: COULD LEFTOVER HEAT FROM LAST EL NIÑO FUEL A NEW ONE?
    Date: 14/03/17

    Some climate models are suggesting that El Niño may return later this year, but for now, the Pacific Ocean lingers in a neutral “La Nada” state, according to climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California.
    . . .
    Whether or not El Niño returns will be determined by a number of factors, one of which is the larger stage on which El Niño and La Niña play, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is a large-scale, long-term pattern of ocean temperature and other changes in the Pacific Ocean. It alternates between two phases, warm (called positive) and cool (negative), at irregular intervals of 5 to 20 years.

    http://www.thegwpf.com/nasa-could-leftover-heat-from-last-el-nino-fuel-a-new-one/

  4. David A says:

    It appears that the 2015-16 event had more hot and cold anomalies then the 1997-98 event. ( Looking at the overall ocean especially, including the Pacific “blob” and the cold western Pacific.

    It would be interesting to know if the sub-surface anomalies reflected the same.

  5. Sunsettommy says:

    Can’t agree with this statement,because there is no evidence that CO2 drives El-Ninos in any way.

    “As an example of what I mean consider the El Niño phenomenon – a short-term oceanographic weather event. The El Niño can be used to make computer climate models look better than they are, for a short time at least.”

    This is what bugs me when statements like this give credence to the delusion that CO2 changes in the air, has something to do with it,when it is OBVIOUS that it doesn’t.

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