Solar Activity Linked to Periodic Climate Change During the Holocene

Posted: July 28, 2017 by tallbloke in climate, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics, Temperature

H/T to GWPF for this new paper linking solar variation with climate change.

Date: 28/07/17
Mohammed Allan et al., Climate of the Past, 11 July 2017
Several intervals of significant rapid climate change were detected during the Holocene at 10.3, 9.3-9.5, around 8.2, 6.4-6.2, 4.7-4.5, and around 2.7 ka BP. Those intervals are similar to the cold events evidenced in different natural paleoclimate archivers, suggesting common climate forcing mechanisms related to changes in solar irradiance.
Allen-etal2017

Abstract. We present a decadal-centennial scale Holocene climate record based on trace elements contents from a 65 cm stalagmite (“Père Noël”) from Belgian Père Noël cave. Père Noël (PN) stalagmite covers the last 12.7 ka according to U/Th dating. High spatial resolution measurements of trace elements (Sr, Ba, Mg and Al) were done by LaserAblation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Trace elements profiles were interpreted as environmental and climate changes in the Han-sur-Lesse region. Power spectrum estimators and continuous wavelet 15 transform were applied on trace elements time series to detect any statistically significant periodicities in the PN stalagmite. Spectral analyses reveal decadal to millennial periodicities (i.e., 68-75, 133-136, 198-209, 291-358, 404- 602, 912-1029 and 2365-2670 yr) in the speleothem record. Results were compared to reconstructed sunspot number data to determine whether solar signal is presents in PN speleothem. The occurrence of significant solar periodicities (i.e., cycles of Gleissberg, de Vries, unnamed 500 years, Eddy and Hallstat) supports for an impact of solar forcing on 20 PN speleothem trace elements contents. Moreover, several intervals of significant rapid climate change were detected during the Holocene at 10.3, 9.3-9.5, around 8.2, 6.4-6.2, 4.7-4.5, and around 2.7 ka BP. Those intervals are similar to the cold events evidenced in different natural paleoclimate archivers, suggesting common climate forcing mechanisms related to changes in solar irradiance.

6. Conclusion We have shown that the high-resolution trace element records obtained by LA-ICP-MS from the PN stalagmite provide a detailed paleoclimate and/or paleoenvironment record of Northwestern Europe through the Holocene. The strong covariation of trace elements (Ba, Sr, Mg and Al), and with δ18O, confirms a common or strongly related controlling process. Based on trace element time-series we demonstrate that several events at 10.3, 9.3-9.5, around 8.2, 6.4-6.2, 4.7-4.5, and around 2.7 ka BP alternate with periods of relatively stable and wet/warmer climate. These intervals coincide with the cold events defined in marine and continental archives. The trace element time-series of the PN speleothem reveals a significant correlation with sunspot number records, suggesting some solar forcing in the PN trace elemental records. This observation is confirmed by wavelet analyses that reveal common solar periodicities (Gleissberg cycle, de Vries cycle, unnamed 500 year, Eddy cycles, and Hallstatt cycle) in agreement with those recognized in the North Atlantic marine cores and the Greenland ice cores, as well as some other terrestrial Holocene records, suggesting common forcing mechanisms. Our study, based on high-resolution LA-ICP-MS analyses, emphasizes that speleothem trace element profiles may be considered as a new solar activity proxy on decadalcentennial timescales over the Holocene.

Comments
  1. Bitter&twisted says:

    When will this moronic Government and the parasitic greens ever notice the big yellow ball in the sky?

  2. tom0mason says:

    I find this paper probably the most interesting when it come to dust effects on Greenland ice, and the global climate overall.
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987116300305
    Modulation of ice ages via precession and dust-albedo feedbacks
    by Ralph Ellis, Michael Palmer (with special thanks to Prof. Michael Palmer and also Prof. Clive Best, who supplied the summary graphic in Fig. 14.)

    China University of Geosciences (Beijing) published Geoscience Frontiers.
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2016.04.004

    An interglacial is only initiated when eccentricity is rising and northern Great Summer Milankovitch insolation is enhanced. Following this temporary warm period, the rate of polar ice regrowth and its associated increase in albedo, controls the cooling-rate of the oceans and climate. These steadily reducing temperatures control the equally steady oceanic absorption and sequestration of atmospheric CO2, which in turn eventually controls the exponential increase in dust production, which then lowers ice-sheet albedo and primes the world for another interglacial warming. Thus one of the primary climatic regulators of interglacial periodicity is the steady rate of increase in polar ice extent. And since it takes about 70 kyr before the ice-sheets are large enough for temperatures and CO2 to reach a minima, this coincidentally places the increased dust production era close to the next eccentricity minima.
    Thus the rate of ice-sheet regrowth plays a key role in determining the w100kyr length of the glacial cycle. If temperatures and CO2 have not reached their critical minimum values before the onset of an eccentricity-enhanced Great Summer, there would be no dust-ice albedo feedbacks. And so the world would wait patiently until the next enhanced Great Summer, when hopefully all the participants in this stand-off between orbital forcing and climate feedbacks are ready to play their part. The glacial world’s dust-ice Achilles heel needs to be primed and ready to fire before an interglacial can be fully successful, otherwise the result is merely a ‘flash in the pan’ one of the many minor warming events of no consequence in the paleo-climatic record. In which case, interglacial warming is eccentricity and polar ice regrowth regulated, Great Summer forced,and dust-ice albedo amplified. And the greenhouse-gas attributes of CO2 play little or no part in this complex feedback system.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Solar activity has declined a lot in the last few years…

    NASA Confirms Falling Sea Levels For Two Years Amidst Media Blackout
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/nasa-confirms-falling-sea-levels-two-years-amidst-media-blackout

  4. And it is going to happen again this time. I say a year from now temperatures will be at or below 30 year means.

    I also think when temperatures decline it could be rather abrupt.

  5. oldmanK says:

    This is an interesting paper for making comparisons. However it fails to show intermediate dates of importance, and it fails to distinguish between Holocene Max and later. I’ll show below, with the help of a link based on a chart courtesy Andy May, and on which I have added material. However my info is restricted to the band 8.2BP to 4.3BP

    The dates BP 8.2, 6.3, and 4.3 are in agreement, generally, but in between one can easily see other events at 7.2, 5.5, 5.1 , and these are dates that correspond to events corroborated from a number of sources.
    The 6.3 and 4.3 are identical events also similar to the 8.2 (yellow highlights in C/N chart). The reverse event is at 5.5 and there is another at ~7.5 but this latter is not evident -just a guess-.

    IN between, and evident from the Ice Rafting chart are a 7.2 and a 5.145 , The consequences of these two events are only evident in the archaeological record, and may be localised. The 5.145 (~5.2) is an important date in the archaeological record as a time of widespread civilisation destructions. The 5.5 corresponds to the drying of the Sahara (a quite precise date).

    After Holocene max things are different.

    The basic chart is by Andy May, I have superimposed other material and events, and the dates are aligned to the chart timeline. (They are at link below, an experimental site I am toying with. Please do explore. Google street has recently made available virtual site tours, to which I added links, which should leave little doubt about one archaeological source of info. There is absolutely no possibility these things came about by chance.)

    Link: https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2017/07/02/113/

    https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/

    The devil is in the detail; but hell is in the wider context.

  6. oldmanK says:

    Additional: ping back to this post edhoskins says:
    July 10, 2017 at 6:57 pm and see the ‘missing’ changes/dates in the Gisp2 chart.

  7. oldmanK says:

    Above link in post not working. It is in thread “The real cause of climate change over the last millennium” , edhoskins July 10, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    Chart here : https://edmhdotme.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/screen-shot-2017-01-02-at-18-11-41.png

  8. donald penman says:

    can someone explain this to me surely the arctic sea is just melting away to zero ( sarc.)

  9. oldmanK says:

    @ tallbloke: In my second post above, question: is not the date “July 10, 2017 at 6:57 pm” supposed to be an active link that takes one back to another thread of edhoskins (which one can open in a new window)? I tried to link directly back to that thread at that particular post. His comment below the graph is very important and distinguishes between Holocene max and later, marking a sort of ‘tipping point’.

    The subject paper here does not recognise that. That point is an important ‘game changer’.

    [mod] right click on ‘July 10, 2017 at 6:57 pm’ in the comment and select ‘copy link address’.

  10. tallbloke says:

    Ah right. As OB (in mod mode) says, right click on the date and select ‘copy link address’, then paste (Ctrl + V) that into your comment. It’ll then appear as a live clickable link like this: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2017/07/09/the-real-cause-of-climate-change-over-the-last-millennium/comment-page-1/#comment-128451

  11. Ulric Lyons says:

    The three coldest drops in GISP2 at 8.2 kyr BP, 4.7-4.5 kyr BP, and around 750 AD, were all very warm periods for the mid latitudes. The peak of the 8.2 kyr event had notably stronger trade winds.
    The pitch is ~3470 years, that pitch also runs through most of the warm spikes in GISP2.

  12. stpaulchuck says:

    who is this heretic!? everyone knows it’s CO2 from backyard grills and lawn mowers causing massive unprecedented warming of the entire planet. I read it on the interwebs. It must be true.

  13. dscott says:

    What you don’t know won’t hurt you…

    You will never be allowed to know that actual temperatures are lower than reported when it doesn’t fit the narrative:

    TEMPERATURES PLUNGE AFTER AUSTRALIA’S BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY ORDERS FIX

    …A record of the Thredbo Top station for 3am on Wednesday shows a temperature reading of -10.6C. This compares with the BoM’s monthly highlights for June and July, both showing a low of -9.6C.

    The BoM said it had taken immed­iate action to replace the Thredbo station after concerns were raised that very low temperatures were not making it onto the official record. Controversy has dogged the bureau’s automatic weather station network since Goulburn man Lance Pigeon saw a -10.4C reading on the BoM’s website on July 2 automatically adjust to -10C, then disappear.

    Later independent monitoring of the Thredbo Top station by scientist Jennifer Marohasy showed a recording of -10.6C ­vanish from the record…

    …It has been reported online that electronic smart cards were allegedly fitted to the BoM’s automatic weather stations, which put a limit on how low temperatures could be recorded in official weather data…

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