Hurricanes, AMO , And Sahel Droughts

Posted: September 10, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, research, Uncertainty, weather
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What really drives Atlantic hurricanes? Paul Homewood looks at some relevant research.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Reader Dermot Flaherty questioned the relationship of ENSO to the Atlantic hurricane season.

There are indeed many factors which affect hurricane activity. As leading hurricane expert Chris Landsea stated in his 1999 paper “Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes”:

Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes.

Landsea goes on:

Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode – an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record.

View original post 1,270 more words

Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Series of potent hurricanes stokes scientific debate
    September 9, 2017

    “Currently we have three Atlantic hurricanes with 90-plus mile per hour winds—only the fourth time on record in Atlantic this has occurred,” Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, said on Twitter.

    The last time three hurricanes were active at once was 2010, when hurricanes Igor, Julia and Karl were classified as hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
    . . .
    A period of relative calm for hurricanes, stretching from 2013 to 2016, can be explained by the presence of the equatorial Pacific warming trend, El Nino, which produces wind shear that tends to discourage the formation of hurricanes.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2017-09-series-potent-hurricanes-stokes-scientific.html

  2. oldbrew says:

    NOAA releases 2017 hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Ocean
    Author: Tom Di Liberto
    May 25, 2017

    The hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is favored to be above average according to the 2017 outlook issued by scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
    . . .
    Forecasters predict between 11 and 17 named systems will form in the Atlantic Ocean this season. Of those storms, the outlook predicts 5-9 will become hurricanes, with 2-4 of those storms becoming major hurricanes with wind speeds in excess of 110 mph.
    . . .
    In the end, warmer than average ocean temperatures and low wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea combined with near-normal or weak El Niño conditions were the leading reasons behind the above-average hurricane outlook.

    http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/noaa-releases-2017-hurricane-outlook-atlantic-ocean
    – – –
    No correlation between man-made emissions and Atlantic hurricane patterns here…

  3. Paul Vaughan says:

    Review:

  4. oldbrew says:

    Science blast from the past…

    FOR USE AFTER 11:30 A.M., E.T. MONDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1995
    Science Writers: Dr. Gerard Bond’s presentation to the AGU

    Recent, Abrupt Climate-Cooling Cycle Found

    The coolings dropped average temperatures in the North Atlantic region within 200 years or less. They stayed cold for several hundred years, then warmed again as quickly as they cooled, he said. The most recent of these cooling cycles might prove to be the Little Ice Age, which began sometime around 1100 A.D. and peaked a few hundred years later. During the Little Ice Age, glaciers in the Alps, Alaska, New Zealand and Sweden advanced well beyond their present limits, according to Ice Ages, a book by John and Katherine Imbrie. Snow blanketed Ethiopia’s high mountains, where it is now unknown. Global climate was generally 2F cooler than now. Europe suffered severe winters, as did North American colonists. The legendary winter Washington camped at Valley Forge was mild compared to others around the same time. To the north, New York harbor was frozen solid and people could walk from Staten Island to Manhattan.

    http://www.columbia.edu/cu/pr/95/18779.html

    ‘warmed again as quickly as they cooled’ – without man-made industrial-age emissions of course.

  5. melitamegalithic says:

    oldbrew, good find, Gerald Bond’s paper. Quote -of particular note-: ‘ Dr. Bond dated the peaks of ice-delivered debris at about 12,300; 10,800; 8,000; 5,700; 3,900; 2,750 and 800 years ago.’ Those dates (or near dates) show up frequently, particularly these last 18months. See fig 4 here: https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/Balascio_ClimateofPast_2015.pdf

    WUWT in this thread: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/04/paleoclimate-cycles-are-key-analogs-for-present-day-holocene-warm-period/ has two interesting figures, fig1 and fig3. Fig3 shows the back-and-forth ratcheting of temps, really a chaotic response of a system plagued by ‘friction’. Fig1 shows four cycles of long time/period saw-tooth (with envelope represented by fig3) with extreme trigger points.

    This represents a large metaphorical elephant and, IMO, co2 represents one of the hairs on its tail. That is not enough to know the animal.

  6. oldmanK says:

    Ooops: melitamegalithic is oldmanK

  7. Paul Vaughan says:

    Update:

    Hale Core Model v5
    r^2 = 0.999 999 999 99
    extensible to lunisolar

    v5 is the first hale core model to fully bridge to lunisolar.

    This puts a simple model of Milankovitch (and many other things) — expressible in closed compact form — within striking distance.

  8. Paul Vaughan says:

    v5 is a third-order model.
    A first-order model ignores JEV.
    A second-order model accounts for JEV.
    A third-order model accounts for JEV and Milankovitch.
    V5’s accounting for JEV is precise. This should remove ALL sensible doubt about the dead simple geometry linking the inner solar system to Jupiter & Saturn.

  9. David A says:

    Paul V, your 9:06 post is impressive.
    What criticism have you received?

  10. David A says:

    Paul V, your 9:06 post is impressive.
    What criticism have you received?

  11. oldbrew says:

    NASA research: Saharan dust versus Atlantic hurricanes

    “We think that the 2006 hurricane season in the Atlantic
    might have been less active because the dry
    Saharan Air Layer seemed to be unusually
    strong coming across the Atlantic. Because
    it persisted in such a strong state as it crossed
    the ocean, the Saharan dry air and dust may
    have defeated more disturbance waves from
    developing into stronger storms.”

    http://cdn.earthdata.nasa.gov/conduit/upload/1181/NASA_SOP_2007_Saharan_dust_versus_Atlantic_hurricanes.pdf
    – – –
    Accuweather — Saharan Dust: How Does it Impact Atlantic Storms?

    ‘Knowing whether or not a tropical cyclone will have Saharan Dust in its vicinity is one factor that can determine the cyclone’s intensity.’

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-glossary/saharan-dust-how-does-it-devel-1/14307927
    – – –
    Precipitation data (June – October)

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    Stepping onto the Milankovitch path:
    Φ(ΦΦ)^e = (ET)(JEV) = ΦΦ(EE)(J+S)
    (Φ/(ET))(ΦΦ)^e = JEV = ΦΦ(E/T)(J+S)
    (Φ/(EE))(ΦΦ)^e = (T/E)(JEV) = ΦΦ(J+S)

  13. ren says:

    The development of La Niña is closely related to the latitudinal jet stream.

    At the same time, it helps to strengthen the Hurricane in the Atlantic.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Looks like more pain for warmists if La Niña gets going 😎

  15. ren says:

    Oldbrew, look at solar activity from July 2017.

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