What you need to know & are not told about hurricanes

Posted: September 16, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate
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Taking a look beyond the over-simplistic climate hysteria that arises as if by a jolt on the electrodes every time a major weather event occurs, especially if it’s in or near the USA.

Fabius Maximus website

Summary: Millions of words were expended reporting about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but too little about the science connecting them to climate change. Here are the details, contrasted with the propaganda barrage of those seeking to exploit these disasters for political gain. Let’s listen to these scientists so we can better prepare for what is coming. Failure to do so risks eventual disaster.

NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005 NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005.

(1)  A politically useful catastrophe: the Left speaks

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The record-setting twelve-year long hurricane “drought” (no major hurricane landfalls on the US) was just weather. But the Left immediately boldly and confidently declared Harvey and Irma to be caused (or worsened) by anthropogenic climate change. Some of these screeds are mostly rational, just exaggerated or imbalanced. Such as “Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like” by Eric Holthaus at Politico — “It’s time to open our…

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Comments
  1. oldbrew says:

    Analysis By German Scientists Concerning Hurricane Causes: More Propaganda Than Science
    By P Gosselin on 16. September 2017

    In the wake of Category 5 hurricanes Irma and Harvey, Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt presented an analysis of what’s behind the hurricane activity and literature at their well known Die kalte Sonne climate website. Their hope is to bring the hurricane discussion back to some rationality.

    http://notrickszone.com/2017/09/16/analysis-by-german-scientists-concerning-hurricane-causes-more-propaganda-than-science/

  2. DB says:

    And for those who like measurements, James Kossin of the US National Climatic Data Center assessed past storm intensity by analysing 30 years of cloud-top temperature data from satellite imagery of tropical cyclones. He did not find an increase in storm intensity.

    Tropical storms not intensifying
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v515/n7526/full/515167a.html

  3. Richard111 says:

    Some mumblings from a climate moron… there must be a lot of energy dissapated during a hurricanes lifetime. This energy was provided by the sun. Is this not a global climate cooling process?

    Also wind. Wind distributes energy around the world. Wind turbines steal some of that energy. People say not much. But in the future?

  4. oldbrew says:

    Interaction between a Hurricane and the Ocean

    The primary process responsible for cooling the sea surface under a hurricane is vertical mixing. Vertical mixing occurs because the hurricane’s surface winds exert a stress on the ocean surface due to friction, generating ocean currents in the oceanic mixed layer. Vertical shear of the currents in the upper ocean then leads to turbulence. Turbulence mixes and entrains the colder water from the thermocline up into the oceanic mixed layer, thereby thickening and cooling the oceanic mixed layer. Some of this colder water makes its way up to the sea surface. Since this vertical mixing process happens within a few hours, it usually cools the sea surface underneath a hurricane, restricting evaporation and therefore limiting the heat available to the hurricane for intensification and maintenance.

    Read more here: http://hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricaneandocean/

  5. oldmanK says:

    From oldbrew’s quote “The primary process responsible for cooling the sea surface under a hurricane is vertical mixing.”

    Memories from the past makes me question this. Applying Bernoulli’s equation, under a hurricane the increase kinetic energy of the rotating air reduces the PE -read pressure- .This would increase evaporation of the sea surface thereby reducing its temp, – ie. cooling the sea surface.

    In steam turbines the slight pressure drop achieved in condenser translates into a considerable additional energy output from the last stage blading. I think, in a hurricane that is the energy taken from the sea by evaporation, which is later released when that moisture condenses as rain. The rain is fresh water. But if the pressure drop is substantial at the eye, then sea water plus fish are then entrained in the updraft, carburettor style.

    http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/dynamics.html

  6. Richard111 says:

    Thanks oldbrew. Interesting read. One point my nit-picking mind finds is the vast area of cloud cover around the hurricane. This can last for weeks and must prevent a lot of sun energy getting into the oceans which I guess also adds to the overall cooling of the ocean while the hurricane lasts.

    [reply] sounds plausible, although obviously oceans are vast

  7. oldbrew says:

    ‘it usually cools the sea surface underneath a hurricane’

    But the hurricane moves on all the time, e.g. Irma was reported as doing 14 mph on Sept. 8th.

    http://www.news-press.com/story/news/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-continues-moving-west-14-mph-maximum-winds-increase-155-mph-watch-and-warnings-contin/646281001/

  8. oldbrew says:

    Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming
    September 18th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

    Partly in response to the crazy claims of the usual global warming experts (Stevie Wonder, Beyoncé, Jennifer Lawrence, Mark Ruffalo, Bill Nye the Science Guy, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Pope Francis), I decided to write another Kindle e-book. This one is entitled, Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed On Global Warming.

    In it I review the many fascinating examples of major hurricane landfalls in the United States, even going back to colonial times.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/09/inevitable-disaster-why-hurricanes-cant-be-blamed-on-global-warming/

  9. oldbrew says:

    The sun’s strongest flare in 11 years might help explain a solar paradox
    Physicists will test why the biggest flashes tend to occur as a solar cycle ebbs

    A series of rapid-fire solar flares is providing the first chance to test a new theory of why the sun releases its biggest outbursts when its activity is ramping down. Migrating bands of magnetism that meet at the sun’s equator may cause the biggest flares, even as the sun is going to sleep.

    http://www.sciencenews.org/article/sun-solar-flares-paradox

    Something like a short-circuit?
    – – –
    Hurricane activity IS linked to solar cycles
    http://ktwop.com/2017/09/09/hurricane-activity-is-linked-to-solar-cycles/

    ktwop quotes this paper: ‘Evidence linking solar variability with US hurricanes’
    Authors: Robert E. Hodges, James B. Elsner
    First published: 14 July 2010

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2196/full

    Quote from the paper:
    The evidence for a sun–hurricane relationship was further bolstered by showing that a similar relationship between the SSN anomaly and US hurricanes (years of high SSN anomaly have more US hurricanes) is detectable in an archive of Atlantic hurricanes dating back to 1749.

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