Climate change predictions: What went wrong? 

Posted: September 24, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, Critique, Emissions, modelling, pause, Temperature
Tags: ,

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

They could perhaps have taken more notice of this paper by Spencer and Braswell six years ago, which found that Earth’s atmosphere is more efficient at releasing energy to space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”

As egg-on-face moments go, it was a double-yolker, writes Nigel Hawkes in The Sunday Times [restricted access].

Last week a group of climate scientists published a paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong. 

The admission was overdue acknowledgment of something that has been obvious for years.

Being wrong is not a criminal offence, especially in science, where in the long run almost everything turns out to be wrong, but the global warmers have adopted such a high-and-mighty tone to anyone who questions them that for sceptics this was pure joy.

The world may still be doomed, but it is not quite as doomed as the climatologists have repeatedly told us.

The admission was overdue acknowledgment of something that has been obvious for years. Despite the climate models predicting rapidly rising temperatures, between 1998 and 2013 temperatures barely rose at all. This was a pause, not a change in the underlying trend, the scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change insisted. Global warming was still going on, even when it wasn’t.

The pause hadn’t been predicted by the computer models, but admitting that wasn’t really an option. Anxiety needed to be ramped up in order to achieve international agreement on cutting carbon emissions. That was achieved — at the cost of browbeating doubters — and the Paris agreement struck in 2016 committed signatories to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

It couldn’t actually be done, the scientists said. To keep warming below 1.5C, total emissions from 2015 onwards could not amount to more than 70 gigatonnes of carbon — seven years’ worth at current emission rates.

Last week’s paper in Nature Geoscience recalculates that as 200 gigatonnes, or 240 gigatonnes if great efforts are also made to reduce other global-warming gases such as nitrous oxide and methane.

Continued here.
– – –

  1. ren says:

    The more the jet stream will be meridian in the west (currently very low geomagnetic activity), the closer the east coast will be hurricane Maria.
    Marie’s position forecast for September 28.,36.74,1807

  2. oldbrew says:

    Re-calculating numbers won’t do if the underlying premise is wrong anyway.

  3. ren says:

    In my opinion, after geomagnetic storms, jet streams accelerate in the North Pacific and Atlantic. I have been watching it for many years.
    I think this is due to the action of the magnetic field on ozone (diamagnetism). This field is produced when aurora borealis occurs.
    Influence of the magnetic field is particularly visible at the top of the stratosphere. Ozone is pushed away from the pole and oxygen (O2) is pulled to the pole.

    Circulation in the vortex moves the polar ozone in the lower stratosphere.

  4. ren says:

    Properties of Ozone
    Ozone (O3 ), or trioxygen, is a
    triatomic molecule consisting of
    three oxygen atoms. It is an allotrope of
    oxygen that is much less stable than
    the diatomic allotrope (O2 ), breaking
    down with a half life of about half an hour
    in the lower atmosphere to O2. Ozone
    is diamagnetic, which means that
    its electrons are all paired. In contrast,
    O2 is paramagnetic, containing two unpaired electrons.

  5. oldbrew says:

    BBC: Snow comes early to California

    Snow has come early – very early – to Northern California, on the last day of summer. Drivers have been advised to be careful in icy conditions.
    23 Sep 2017
    [includes short video]

  6. Poly says:

    thank you for your insights! Keep them coming!

  7. ren says:

    Poly, thank you, look at this:

    “These currents carry up to 1 TW of electric power to the upper atmosphere – about 30 times the energy consumed in New York during a heatwave.

    They are also responsible for ‘aurora arcs’, the familiar, slow-moving green curtains of light that can extend from horizon to horizon.

    While much is known about these current systems, recent observations by Swarm have revealed that they are associated with large electrical fields.

    Heated ions travel upward
    These fields, which are strongest in the winter, occur where upwards and downwards Birkeland currents connect through the ionosphere.

    Bill Archer from the University of Calgary explained, “Using data from the Swarm satellites’ electric field instruments, we discovered that these strong electric fields drive supersonic plasma jets.

    “The jets, which we call ‘Birkeland current boundary flows’, mark distinctly the boundary between current sheets moving in opposite direction and lead to extreme conditions in the upper atmosphere.”

  8. oldbrew says:

    “The jets, which we call ‘Birkeland current boundary flows’, mark distinctly the boundary between current sheets moving in opposite direction and lead to extreme conditions in the upper atmosphere.”

    That doesn’t tell us why these bi-directional ‘current sheets’ exist.

    The theory that there are huge electric currents, powered by solar wind and guided through the ionosphere by Earth’s magnetic field, was postulated more than a century ago by Norwegian scientist Kristian Birkeland.

    That would be the current ‘in’. What produces the current ‘out’?

  9. ren says:

    Oldbrew we have new satellite measurements.
    Full name: Swarm

    Objectives: To offer a unique view inside Earth to study: core dynamics, geodynamo processes and core–mantle interaction; magnetism of the lithosphere and its geological context; 3D electrical conductivity of the mantle related to composition; magnetic signature related to ocean circulation. In addition, Swarm data will be used to study the Sun’s influence on Earth system by: analysing electric currents in magnetosphere and ionosphere; understanding the impact of solar wind on dynamics of the upper atmosphere.

  10. Brett Keane says:

    Good work Ren. New ideas to think on.

  11. Brett Keane says:

    And I can say that the SH weather is wild, as one could expect. Sodden where not frozen, all over NZ. Of course, we will have to tease out normal seasonal effects……

  12. p.g.sharrow says:

    the fundamental feature of EMF is that every force induces a counter reaction. lines of force or currents create counter lines of force or currents. the atmosphere acts as an insulator between the “negative plate” of space and the “positive plate” of the mater of Earth. gravity is or causes a static charge or warpage of 300 volts per meter/yard of elevation. current flows cause ionization that we can see much like in a “neon” tube…pg

  13. oldbrew says:

    Where auroras appear can vary, the near-polar regions being the most likely but…

    Aurora Pictures: Rare Northern Lights Seen in U.S. South

    It’s a moving boundary.

  14. ren says:

    Oldbrew, but now the geomagnetic activity is very low and circulation stopped.

  15. Ren do you think geological activity picks up after a geomagnetic storm in the weeks following the storm?

  16. BoyfromTottenham says:

    Ren, water is a polar molecule. How does this fit into your view?

  17. oldbrew says:

    Wikipedia says:
    Magnetic midnight is the time of day when the North or South Magnetic Pole is exactly in between the sun and an observer on earth’s surface. This is the best time for observing auroras.[1]

    Because Earth’s magnetic poles do not coincide with its geographical poles—the angle between Earth’s rotation axis and magnetic axis is about 11°—magnetic midnight differs from conventional midnight. In most of the United States, magnetic midnight occurs about an hour earlier.[2]
    – – –
    ‘when the North or South Magnetic Pole is exactly in between the sun and an observer on earth’s surface’

    In other words, when the Sun is over the (magnetic) pole opposite to the observer, who sees midnight. That suggests that in those specific circumstances the Sun is supplying some electromagnetic input that travels from pole to pole – or if not, what other interpretations might there be?

  18. oldbrew says:

    ‘Statistically, the equinox months of September and March are the best for aurora activity’

  19. dai davies says:

    Lots of interesting physics to be explored in the role of static and dynamic electrical forces at Earth, solar system, galactic levels, and beyond.

    The head post is evidence of a drift towards a luker warm position becoming acceptable, but extending the supposed danger time from 7 years by a factor of three still leaves justification for the sacking of our energy systems.

    All their theory and models are based on an unquantified assumption that is now invalidated – that the greenhouse effect (more precisely the radiative delay effect) is the only effect capable of creating our current liveable surface temperatures.

    We now have a clear, simple, and multiply verified alternative in the diurnal temperature smoothing effect, once referred to as the atmospheric thermal effect but I think that name has now become confused.

    We also have a possible evaluation of the radiative delay heating at 0.15 C – ie totally negligible.

    Anyone who believes that the greenhouse effect is significant should be challenged to come up with a calculation that justifies the claim.

    My calculations have been updated since I last mentioned them.

    Click to access RadiativeDelayInContext170828.pdf


  20. ren says:

    Salvatore Del Prete says:
    Ren do you think geological activity picks up after a geomagnetic storm in the weeks following the storm?
    In my opinion, magma reaction occurs during a strong geomagnetic storm (strong magnetometer fluctuations). Late secondary effects occur, depending on the first impact.

  21. ren says:

    BoyfromTottenham says:
    Ren, water is a polar molecule. How does this fit into your view?
    Because jetstream acceleration occurs over the ocean, water plays a role. There is little water in the upper stratosphere.

  22. ren says:

    Simple homemade experiment that shows the diamagnetic properties of water.

  23. oldbrew says:

    Tony Heller compares real Arctic data with fake news…

  24. Paul Hogan says:

    The were not wrong they succeeded in what they wanted, Money. It was never about anything else.

  25. @oldbrew: “That would be the current ‘in’. What produces the current ‘out’?”

    Circulating current, similar to those in a transformer core – just circulate – in and out or most likely around and around.

    @pg: EMF has always considered to be Electro Motive Force.
    Faraday beat Maxwell by about 30 years to its first use. (if I recall correctly)

    EMF: an initial voltage created by something! but before current flows.

  26. oldbrew says:

    Steve R – the phrase ‘electrical circuit’ springs to mind.

    Any ‘initial’ voltage must have been a very long time ago.
    – – –
    Date: 25/09/17 Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor

    Blaming the news media is another low for climate science. Journalists reported accurately that climate models have been running hot — because that’s what climate scientists actually told the press, and there was nothing wrong with the headlines.

    Reminder – this from the authors:
    “Professor Grubb told The Times yesterday: “When the facts change, I change my mind, as [John Maynard] Keynes said. It’s still likely to be very difficult to achieve these kind of changes quickly enough but we are in a better place than I thought.”

    Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and another author, said: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.” [etc.]

  27. Tenuc says:

    Interesting how the ‘settled science’ is obviously not settled. Climate scientists have very little knowledge about the chaotic system they study, and their primitive computer models fail time and time again. They should all simply admit that they do not yet know how our climate works.

    [reply] if they knew, they wouldn’t need models 🙂

  28. oldbrew says:

    Dr Roy Spencer: ‘welcome to the dark side’

    Now, I must ask, what did Grubb know, and when did he know it? What exactly has changed in the model forecasts since the Paris summit in December 2015?

    Exactly nothing.

    Allen and Grubb knew the models had a problem well before that.
    . . .
    I believe the new narrative taking shape is this: “yes, we were wrong, but only in the timing of the coming global warming disaster. It is still going to happen… but now we have time to fix it, before it really, really is too late.”
    – – –
    Aka kicking the can down the road – preferably past the author’s retirement age 😂

  29. ren says:

    The dependence of air circulation on magnetic fields is visible.

  30. oldbrew says:

    Is there any link between jetstreams and auroras?

  31. ren says:

    Aurora is formed during a geomagnetic storm. Then jetstream over the ocean accelerates.

  32. oldbrew says:

    OK, then there’s the location – or extent – of the aurora to consider. For example if it goes a long way from the pole, whether that means anything for jetstream patterns in addition to (over the ocean) acceleration.

  33. oldbrew says:

    Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?
    Posted on September 26, 2017
    by Ross McKitrick

    …Gridcell extreme frequencies in CMIP5 models do not overlap with observations. And satellite-measured temperature trends in the lower troposphere run below the CMIP5 rates in the same way that the HadCRUT4 surface data do, including in the tropics. The model-observational discrepancy is real, and needs to be taken into account especially when using models for policy guidance.

  34. oldbrew says:

  35. This is yet another indication that “Climate Science” is not science at all.

    In real science when predictions are wrong the theory is abandoned.

    Unfortunately trillions are being wasted by governments that base public policy on junk science from charlatans.

  36. oldbrew says:

    Almost none of this heat reached Britain :/

    ‘Searing summers becoming the new normal in Europe: study’
    September 27, 2017

    The researchers combined detailed, local temperature data with climate model simulations to determine the odds of seeing a summer as hot as 2017.

    Global warming, they concluded, has boosted those odds by a factor of at least 10.
    . . .
    The report, which has not been peer-reviewed

    They claim they ‘found clear evidence of human influence on this summer’s record warmth’ – but there’s no mention of what they think it is.

    The whole thing is linked to an organisation called World Weather Attribution which proclaims:

    The goal of this ambitious project is to provide an immediate answer to the question: “to what extent did anthropogenic climate change play a role in an extreme weather event?” while that event is still unfolding and the world is waiting for an answer.

    Instant ‘science’, just add propaganda and stir 😆

  37. oldbrew says: