New Study: Global Warming Standstill Confirmed, Climate Models Wrong 

Posted: October 3, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, modelling, Natural Variation, pause, research, Temperature
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Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

A new study by Nicola Scafetta and colleagues is featured at The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF).

ABSTRACT The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the “pause” or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm.

In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves. Anyhow, the strong warming peak observed in 2015-2016, the “hottest year on record,” gave the impression that the temperature standstill stopped in 2014. Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

By removing the ENSO signature, the authors show that the temperature trend from 2000 to 2016 clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the GCMs models used to support the AGWT are very likely flawed. By contrast, the semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta, which are based on a specific set of natural climatic oscillations believed to be astronomically induced plus a significantly reduced anthropogenic contribution, agree far better with the latest observations.

INTRODUCTION As explained in part 1 of this study [1], in the last decade future climate scenarios have been used to develop and politically enforce energy expensive policies to contrast catastrophic climate warming expectations for the 21st century. This has been done mostly by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [2, 3, 4]. Several studies based on general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the Earth’s climate concluded that the 20th century climate warming and its future development depend almost completely on anthropogenic activities. Humans have been responsible of emitting in the atmosphere large amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as CO2 throughout the combustion of fossil fuels. This paradigm is known as the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory (AGWT).

However, before trusting GCM projections about future climatic changes, it is necessary to validate these models by testing whether they are able to properly reconstruct past climate changes. In Ref. [1], the authors have argued that since 2001 AGWT was actually supported by the belief that the “hockey stick” proxy temperature reconstructions, which claim that an unprecedented warming occurred since 1900 in the Northern Hemisphere, were reliable [2,5] and could be considered an indirect validation of the available climate models supporting the AGWT [6].

However, since 2005 novel proxy temperature reconstructions questioned the reliability of such hockey stick trends by demonstrating the existence of a large millennial climatic oscillation [7-10]. This natural climatic variability is confirmed by historical inferences [11] and by climate proxy reconstructions spanning the entire Holocene [12, 13]. A millennial climatic oscillation would suggest that a significant percentage of the warming observed since 1850 could simply be a recovery from the Little Ice Age of the 14th – 18th centuries and that throughout the 20th century the climate naturally returned to a warm phase as it happened during the Roman and the Medieval warm periods [9, 11, 14- 16].

Continued here.

Full paper

  1. oldbrew says:

    Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

    This backs up what David Whitehouse was saying a few months ago.

    How the recent El Niño saved climate models

  2. ren says:

    Magnetic field in the Arctic regions
    The observed magnetic field is highly asymmetrical.
    1.Lines of inclination are highly elliptical, with the North Magnetic Pole situated near one end of the ellipse.
    2.The strength of the magnetic field is no longer a maximum at the North Magnetic Pole. In fact, there are now two maxima, one over central Canada, the other over Siberia.
    3.Magnetic meridians do not converge radially on the North Magnetic Pole.

    Because of the two centers of the magnetic field in the North, Arctic polar vortex is weaker than the polar vortex Antarctic.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Date: 04/10/17 Reuters

  4. BA2204 says:

    I see you are making progress Ren. I’m still trying to understand the QBO and how it relates to ozone and SSW (or not). But at least I’ve gotten on the track.

  5. stpaulchuck says:

    you cannot reliably predict the future state of a non linear chaotic system!!! However, if there are reliably cyclical inputs to a fixed content you CAN predict the future. Thus, Scafetta triumphs again.

  6. Fortunately there are a few honest “Climate Scientists” left who can get published. Thank you Nicola!

    Climategate in 2009 was the crack in the dike and today we have a deluge of scientific papers that refute the false narrative that CO2 drives climate.

    The GWPF, Paul Homewood, Tallbloke and Pierre Gosselin do great work bringing these papers to our attention:

    The Hockey Team has not had much to say lately……..maybe they are reading the writing on the wall.

  7. p.g.sharrow says:

    They are no longer in style, their money is being reduced and the climate realists are getting published.

    You can fool all of the people some of the time,
    You can fool some of the people All of the time’
    But you can’t fool all of the people all of the time!

    Specially if it cost them money..:-)…pg

  8. oldbrew says:

    From the paper:
    At the decadal to the millennial scales these oscillations
    have periods of: 9.1 year, which is a likely solarlunar
    tidal cycle; 10-11 year, which is the 11-year solar cycle
    that has been on average about 10.5 year during the 20th
    century; quasi 20-year and 60-year oscillations, which are
    related to the major solar system oscillations due to the
    movement of Jupiter and Saturn; quasi 115-year and 980-year,
    which are related to specific major beats between planetary
    and solar oscillations.

    Re ‘quasi 115-year’: that’s 5 * 23y.
    308 solar rotations = 331 Carrington rotations = 23 tropical years (331 – 308)

    102 full moon cycles = ~115 TY (difference = 0.84 days)
    13 lunar apsidal cycles = 115.02~ tropical years

  9. oldbrew says:

    Add to previous comment: the quasi- ‘980-year’ is 83 Jupiter orbits which is close to a multiple (7) of 360 degrees of movement.

    360 / J orbit (11.862615y) = 30.34744 deg.
    30.34744 * 83 = 2518.8375 deg. = 360 * 6.9967708
    [360 * 7 = 2520]

    83 J = 984.597~ years
    83 and 7 are prime numbers

    So Jupiter returns to almost the same position relative to the Sun every 83 orbits.

    The solar simulator shows Jupiter returns to near the same position relative to the Sun every 83 * 2 (166) orbits.
    984.597~ years * 2 = 1969.914y = 179.0831y * 11

    179~years is the solar inertial motion period.