Is La Niña on the way?

Posted: October 6, 2017 by oldbrew in ENSO, MET office, Natural Variation, Ocean dynamics, opinion

The latest assessment from the UK Met Office.

Official blog of the Met Office news team

During 2015 and 2016, the planet experienced one of the largest El Niño events in a century.  El Niño (Spanish for the boy) is actually the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and climate scientists are now suggesting that this oscillation in tropical Pacific temperature is likely tipping towards its opposite cool phase, La Niña.

Ensemble members show an increasing likelihood of La Niña conditions developing during October and November. La Niña conditions are said to develop when the sea surface temperature anomaly goes below –0.5°C.

Perhaps less well known than its larger brother, La Niña (Spanish for ‘the girl’) is an event that can trigger significant impacts.  Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the Met Office, said: “During El Niño, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific can warm by as much as 3°C. La Niña tends to be smaller and rarely exceeds 2°C, but…

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  1. I think it is too early to tell. The SOI is very similarly to this time last year.It is very likely that the SOI for October will be more than plus 10 as last year. The question is will it stay above 10 as it did in 2010 when there was record rainfall in SE Qld in December leading to floods in Jan 2011. I have a feeling that the rainfall during our summer will be closer to average and that a La Nina will be more likely in 2019 or 2020. Cycles of extended periods plus 10 and minus 10 for the SOI seem on my analysis back to 1900 occur approximately every ten years. (or just over). Is that something to do with Jupiter?

  2. Caleb says:

    According to NOAA the La Nina is already occurring.

  3. oldbrew says:

    BoM: late-season La Niña still possible.

  4. Brett Keane says:

    My interest is in finding whether the Quiet Sun effect will allow it to happen. They keep forecasting nino/nina events that don’t, just lately.

  5. craigm350 says:

    At the end of the article;

  6. pochas94 says:

    Changey, changey, changey ….

  7. ren says:

    October 11 is a predicted magnetic storm. Now the geomagnetic activity is low, as can be seen on the seismograph.

  8. ren says:

    Recent Updates on Mount Agung Volcanic Activity

  9. oldbrew says:

    Agung: ‘there are still 1-3 earthquakes per minute with the total number reaching greater than 600 per day.’

    This was a big one – blew the mountain top off…

    1257 Samalas eruption: It is possible that the 1257 Samalas eruption helped trigger the Little Ice Age.
    . . .
    Other volcanoes in the region are Agung, Batur and Bratan on Bali, west of Lombok.
    . . .
    For comparison, the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo ejected only about a tenth of Samalas’s sulfur.
    . . .
    The Samalas eruption came after the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

    Samalas in Indonesia Identified as Source of the 1257 A.D. ‘Missing’ Eruption

  10. ren says:

    Freezing Laptev Sea separated from each other two parts of the Arctic Ocean, which freeze at different rates. The part between Siberia and North America freezes faster.

  11. ren says:

    Does the ozone hole decrease? Observations show that the size of the ozone hole changes every year. The chart below shows that the ozone hole was very big in 2015. This year, the peak of solar magnetic activity has occured. Below the plot of the ozone hole and solar magnetic activity.

  12. tom0mason says:

    Unfortunately the record of El Nino/La Nina predictions have all the stability of a teenage crack addict winning the lottery.

    Come back at the end of the month and most likely it will show a completely different scenario.