Climate excuses add up as climate theory fails 

Posted: October 22, 2017 by oldbrew in alarmism, climate, Critique, modelling, Natural Variation, Temperature
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Finding a measure of climate that can be successfully used to stir up public anxiety and fear is getting tougher for climate alarmists, as rowing back on earlier claims and scenarios – or at least postponing the supposed days of reckoning – becomes the order of the day.

Tony Abbott may have annoyed the climate change mob with his speech in London, but a far more serious problem for that industry is an admission that global temperatures have not been following climate models, says Climate Change Dispatch.

Besides the two papers making that admission, including one in Nature Geoscience, that massive industry also faces the problem of a possible La Niña this year, which will pull global temperatures down.

Selling disaster stories about rising temperatures, the main way the industry justifies itself, is harder if temperatures are falling rather than rising.

The June 19 paper, Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates, states in part: ‘We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early 21st century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in the post-2000 external forcings used in model simulations.’

Scientists have made this observation before and been bitterly attacked for their troubles, but this paper is notable for including, as authors, the global warming leading light Professor Michael Mann, of Pennsylvania State University and one of Australia’s most distinguished scientists in this area, Professor Matthew England of the University of NSW.

In other words, the climate establishment has finally conceded some ground by agreeing that climate models may not be right all the time.

Continued here.

  1. oldbrew says:

    La Niña 2017?

    Wikipedia: La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1949–51,[17] 1954–56, 1964, 1970–72, 1973–76, 1983–85,[8] 1988–89, 1995–96, 1998–2001, 2007–08, 2010–12 and 2016–17.ña

  2. richard verney says:

    There was no La Nina in 2016/17. There was a sustained period when it bordered La Nina conditions, but never quite made all the required thresholds at all times. See both BoM and WMO for details. One always needs to take Wikipedia with a pinch of salt, on climate matters it is a warmist site.

    BoM lists the last La Nina event as 2010 – 2012.

    BoM It is good to look at BoM ENSO wrap up for 2016/17.

    I have read them, and there was no La Nina in 2016/17, eg:

    11th October 2016: The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, however, some indicators have shifted closer to La Niña thresholds.

    25th October 2016: The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.

    8th November 2016: The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, while the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to decay over the past fortnight, and is likely to be near its end.
    In the tropical Pacific, some indicators such as cloudiness near the Date Line show La Niña-like characteristics, whereas sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain at neutral levels. Recent strengthening of the trade winds in the western tropical Pacific brings the potential for some further cooling of ocean waters. However, this strengthening is likely the result of a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse. Trade winds are likely to weaken in the coming weeks as the MJO passes. Hence it does not appear that the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently reinforcing each other, as they would during the developing stages of a La Niña.

    22nd November 2016: The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.
    In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been negative since late October (La Niña values are typically positive) but remains neutral.

    6th December 2016: La Niña no longer likely in the coming months
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met

    20th December 2016: El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through summer
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral. Most climate models indicate neutral conditions are likely to persist through the coming months.

    3rd january 2017: El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral
    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña.

    Also look at the WMO ENSO watch

    28th July 2016:

    Current Situation and Outlook
    The strong 2015-16 El Niño ended in May 2016. Since then, the El
    Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have remained at neutral levels.
    Climate models indicate that La Niña development is possible in the third
    quarter of 2016.

    19th October 2016:

    Since July 2016, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have
    approached or marginally exceeded weak La Niña levels. However, a clear
    atmospheric component of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern
    has not become evident until recent weeks. Since early October trade winds
    have strengthened over the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating that a La Niñalike
    atmospheric circulation pattern may be developing.

    15th February 2017

    Current Situation and Outlook
    During the second half of 2016, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures
    were at borderline weak La Niña/cool-neutral levels. Many atmospheric
    ENSO indicators also approached or exceeded La Niña thresholds. During
    January 2017, tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and some atmospheric
    fields clearly returned to ENSO-neutral levels. With weak La Niña signals
    since mid-2016, in some regions the influence of other climate drivers may
    have equaled or even outweighed that of ENSO.
    Most of the climate models surveyed indicate neutral conditions will persist
    during the first half of 2017

    28th April 2017

    Current Situation and Outlook
    Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently exist in the
    tropical Pacific Ocean. However, in the far eastern tropical Pacific during
    February and March, strong ocean warming, combined with a collapse of the
    trade winds, resulted in localised severe impacts in Peru and adjacent
    countries. This strong warming event has now weakened. Most climate
    models surveyed indicate that basin-wide ENSO-neutral conditions will
    persist through April-June 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of El Niño
    development in the subsequent months. The continuation of ENSO-neutral
    conditions is slightly less likely, while the emergence of La Niña appears

  3. oldbrew says:

    Wikipedia seems to have jumped the gun with its 2017 La Niña claim.

    Caption: A timeline of all La Niña episodes between 1900 and 2017

  4. stpaulchuck says:

    everyone knows that the oceans ate the heating. I read it on several university and newspaper postings of irrefutable speculation by Climate Scientists. All that hot air heated the oceans’ surfaces which then promptly got swallowed into the deep ocean while then pushing the colder water up.

    See? nothing to it. All you have to do is turn physics and thermodynamics on their heads and it will support your CAGW religious pronouncements.

  5. ivan says:

    It would appear that a number of climate change/global warming leading lights are frantically trying to climb off the bandwagon or at least trying to create plausible deny-ability for what they have said and done.

  6. tom0mason says:

    Tell me is that a La Niña you got hiding in your ENSO …

  7. tom0mason says:

    Two thing strike me from that NOAA/NESDIS graphic —

    1. How late in the year it is for that development of a La Niña feature.
    2. All that anomalously warm sea area from just east of Greenland to the North Russian shores.

  8. gallopingcamel says:

    James Dale Davidson is an economist who can make that dismal science interesting

    Please read his “Breaking Point” book.

  9. oldbrew says:

  10. oldbrew says:

    Jets of Ionospheric Cold Plasma Discovered at the Magnetopause
    24 October 2017

    The lower-energy particles may play a larger role in magnetic reconnection than previously believed, influencing space weather near Earth.
    . . .
    The discovery is significant because the cold ions can change the physics in the magnetosphere, influencing both the rate and structure of the reconnection process and thus contributing to how solar storms impact our planet and its environment.

  11. oldbrew says:

    BoM: La Niña WATCH activated – 24 October 2017

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, making the chance of a La Niña forming in late 2017 at least 50%; around double the normal likelihood. While this means the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH, rainfall outlooks remain neutral due to competing climate drivers.

    Following a brief period of warming, tropical Pacific surface waters cooled significantly in the past fortnight, and hence the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is now generally cooler-than-average. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness near the Date Line, are also approaching La Niña levels.

    Seven of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that sea surface temperatures will reach or exceed La Niña thresholds by November 2017. However, indicators need to remain at La Niña levels for at least three months to be considered an event. This is forecast by six of the eight models. If a La Niña does occur this year it is likely to be short and weak, as sea surface temperatures are forecast to warm again in early 2018, as the austral autumn is the time when La Niña events normally decay.