Historically Quiet Sun Headed Towards Next Solar Minimum

Posted: December 10, 2017 by oldbrew in Cycles, Natural Variation, solar system dynamics
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History suggests extended quiet periods on the Sun do have consequences on Earth, so it will be interesting to see how things play out over the next few years and beyond. Watch out for the length of this solar cycle as well, following a run of shorter than average cycles in the last 100 years or so.

The Next Grand Minimum

by Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc.

Overview

Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906 and by some measures, it is the third weakest since regular observations began around 1755. This historically weak solar cycle continues a weakening trend in solar irradiance output since solar cycle 21 peaked around 1980 and the sun is fast-approaching the next solar minimum. The last solar minimum lasted from 2008 to 2009 and the sun was as quiet during that time as it has been since 1978. The sun is likely to enter the next solar minimum phase within three years or so. The sun has been spotless for 26% of the time in 2017 (90 days) and the blank look should increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading into the next…

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Comments
  1. ren says:

    When was it snowing on the Gulf of Mexico in December?

    “The most recent time that Houston, Texas, received measurable snow was Dec. 4, 2009, which was also the earliest seasonal snowfall on record in the city, according to NWS Houston.”
    What was the solar activity in 2009?

  2. ren says:

    The stratospheric polar vortex pattern indicates a harsh winter in North America.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-28.70,90.96,298

  3. ren says:

    Waves at the top of the stratosphere polar vortex weakens.

  4. ren says:

    The distribution of ozone at the border of the stratosphere and mesosphere is asymmetrical towards the North Pole.

  5. ren says:

    Please pay attention to the temperature on the Gulf of Mexico.

  6. oldbrew says:

    South Texas gets rare snowfall

    Frigid temperatures behind a cold front combined with moisture off the Gulf of Mexico have yielded a rare snowfall in many parts of South and Southeast Texas. Snow continued falling in the Houston area on Friday morning.
    (Dec. 8) AP

    http://www.usatoday.com/videos/weather/2017/12/08/south-texas-gets-rare-snowfall/108423848/

    Will such events become less rare?

  7. ivan says:

    It would appear that the climate is changing — but not in the direction the IPCC would like.

    As this change carries on what spin is the church of climatology going to give it? Are they going to pronounce it a judgement on all the unbelievers?

  8. Richard111 says:

    No mention of cloud forming ‘cosmic rays’ and the cooling effect of clouds especially over the sea.

  9. oldbrew says:

  10. oldbrew says:

    Now forecasting -12C overnight on Monday for a big chunk of the UK, according to BBC TV.

  11. Richard111 says:

    Some personal observations of cloud effect. I spent some ten years of my life working in desert regions. Very boring time so tried learning some astronomy. This meant going out at night to any area nearby free of man made light. Noticed that even when day time temps were 40C plus those night excursions encountered temps of close to freezing. If it turned out to be a cloudy night the temperature didn’t get so cold.
    Back here in the UK, last summer this was, experienced a calm sunny day with temperature climbing up to the middle 20’s. Come sunset there was a pretty rapid drop to about 3C which, after the daytime warmth, felt damn cold. Anyway, about midnight a cloud bank came over and the temperature started to rise. At night! No, still no wind. The temperature climbed to about 10C when I gave up and went to bed.
    Have now learnt that this is radiative feed back from the cloud base. No, it is not warming the ground, it is delaying the rate of cooling such that heat deeper in the ground is coming to the surface. Heat capacity of ground is much, much higher than heat capacity of the air.
    Real world observations show AGW is a fraud.

  12. oldbrew says:

    Current solar cycle 24 has already had 3 times more ‘spotless’ days than the average of the previous four cycles.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles