Henrik Svensmark: Current models have sevenfold underestimate of solar effect on climate

Posted: December 19, 2017 by tallbloke in Astrophysics, atmosphere, climate, Clouds, cosmic rays, solar system dynamics
cr-atmos

Illustration of cosmic rays interacting with the atmosphere. A proton with energy of 100 GeV interact at the top of the atmosphere and produces a cascade of secondary particles who ionize molecules when traveling through the air. One 100 GeV proton hits every m2 at the top of the atmosphere every second.

H/T GWPF: Researchers have claimed a breakthrough in understanding how cosmic rays from supernovas react with the sun to form clouds, which impact the climate on Earth.

The findings have been described as the “missing link” to help resolve a decades long controversy that has big implications for climate science.

Lead author, Henrik Svensmark, from The Technical University of Denmark has long held that climate models had greatly underestimated the impact of solar activity.

He says the new research identified the feedback mechanism through which the sun’s impact on climate was varied.

Professor Svensmark’s theories on solar impact have caused a great deal of controversy within the climate science community and the latest findings are sure to provoke new outrage.

He does not dispute that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have a warming impact on the climate.

But his findings present a challenge to estimates of how sensitive the climate is to changes in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Professor Svensmark says his latest findings were consistent both with the strong rise in the rate of global temperature change late last century and a slowdown in the rate of increase over the past 20 years.

‘’It gives a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that solar activity is reflected in variations in Earth’s climate,” a media statement accompanying the scientific report said.

“For example, the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age 1300-1900 AD both fits changes in solar activity,” it said.

“Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle of why the particles from space are important for climate on Earth,” it said.

The study reveals how atmospheric ions, produced by the energetic cosmic rays raining down through the atmosphere, helps the growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei — the seeds necessary for forming clouds in the atmosphere.

More cloud condensation nuclei mean more clouds and a colder climate, and vice versa.

“Since clouds are essential for the solar energy reaching the surface of the Earth the implications are huge for our understanding of why climate has varied in the past and also for a future climate changes,” the statement said.

Professor Svensmark said it had until now wrongly been assumed that small additional nucleated aerosols would not grow and become cloud condensation nuclei, since no mechanism was known to achieve this.

The research team tested its ideas experimentally in a large cloud chamber.

Data was taken over a period of two years with total 3100 hours of data sampling.

Professor Svensmark said the new results gave a physical foundation to the large body of empirical evidence showing that Solar activity is reflected in variations in Earth’s climate.

“This new work gives credit to a mechanism that is much stronger than changes in solar irradiance alone,” Svensmark told The Australian.

“Solar irradiance has been the only solar forcing that has been included in climate models and such results show that the effect on climate is too small to be of importance,” he said.

“The new thing is that there exists an amplification mechanism that is operating on clouds in the atmosphere,” Svensmark said.

“Quantifying the impact of solar activity on climate from observations is found to be 5-7 times larger than from solar irradiance, and agrees with empirical variations in cosmic rays and clouds,” he said.

“This can therefore also explain why climate over the last 10,000 years correlates with solar activity, “Svensmark said.

“On time scales of millions of years there are much larger changes in the cosmic rays that has nothing to do with solar activity,” he said.

“So, this is an independent test of the mechanism and even here beautiful correlations are found,” he said.

But the Nature Communications paper says “the theory of ion-induced condensation should be incorporated into global aerosol models, to fully test the atmospheric implications.”

Professor Svensmark said since solar activity increased in the 20th century, part of the observed warming is caused by the sun.

“The logical consequence is that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is smaller than what climate models suggest which is 2-4 deg C for each doubling of CO2, since both CO2 and solar activity has had an impact”, he said.

Full story

Comments
  1. joekano76 says:

    Reblogged this on Floating-voter.

  2. Bitter&twisted says:

    This will bring outrage from the greenscam subsidy complex.
    Hopefully followed by the squeals of panic as the taxpayers teat dries up.

  3. Dan Pangburn says:

    Proof AGW theory & IPCC are wrong has been hiding in plain sight. Demonstrated by ‘notch’ in TOA radiation measurements, energy absorbed at low altitude by CO2 molecules is immediately redirected to water vapor molecules. CO2 has no significant effect on climate.

  4. Dan Pangburn says:

    The time-integral of sunspot number anomalies is an excellent proxy for Svensmark’s findings and also the direct effect of TSI change. Combined with an approximation of ocean surface temperature cycles and the increase of atmospheric water vapor (8% since 1960) results in a 98+% match with measured average global temperatures since before 1900.

  5. ren says:

    Ionization rises most in high latitudes. Therefore, it can increase the albedo of the Earth, especially in the conditions of La Niña.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

  6. ren says:

    Low clouds probably have an impact on the decrease in the surface temperature of the South Pacific and the Atlantic.

  7. stpaulchuck says:

    Imam al-Gorehammad of the Climate Caliphate will issue a fatwa against that man for his apostasy!

  8. Paul Vaughan says:

    “Professor Svensmark’s theories on solar impact have caused a great deal of controversy within the climate science community and the latest findings are sure to provoke new outrage.

    He does not dispute that increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have a warming impact on the climate.”

    This was the negotiation failure emboldening devilish agents to lay mountainous red tape across the major western fault. The silver lining is that the failure facilitated orders of magnitude simplification. Dragon’s golden breath (where symbolism and logic coincide) can gently fire mountains of devilish red tape lain over the major western fault.

    Outrage in this case doesn’t play a constructive role in stability because it’s neither balanced by sober, mature restraint nor supported by fair judgement.

    Actions speak louder than words. The decades-long delay will symbolize in recorded earthly history human failure to appreciate and respect the stabilizing powers of natural division.

    The west had enduring fair opportunity to perform better in the test, but failed to resist temptation.

  9. Paul Vaughan says:

    “The theory of ion-induced condensation should be incorporated into global aerosol models, to fully test the atmospheric implications.”

    That alone explores only “implications” based on spatiotemporal assumptions we’ll never see on Earth. Circulatory evolution is hinged to cycle length changes. None of the major climate pressure campaigns ever admitted a sensible treatment of aggregation criteria. The observed devotion to false uniformity assumptions was primitive, savage, and strictly unyielding.

  10. oldbrew says:

    Telegraph: Exploding stars are influencing our weather, scientists find
    by Sarah Knapton, science editor
    19 DECEMBER 2017

    Cosmic rays flung out from exploding stars have an impact on our weather, a study has shown for the first time. New research from the Technical University of Denmark has found that supernovae release ions which rain down through Earth’s atmosphere seeding clouds.

    As more clouds form, the climate cools, which can have a major impact on the long term weather.

    The researchers claim that cosmic rays, coupled with the activity of the Sun, were linked to the Medieval Warm Period around year 1000 AD and the cold period in the Little Ice Age between the 13th and 19th centuries, when the Thames regularly froze over during the winter, allowing frost fairs to be held.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/12/19/exploding-stars-influencing-weather-scientists-find/
    – – –
    At least they’re not totally fixated on failing CO2 theories all the time.

  11. oldbrew says:

    Mosher : “The Alignment of c02 with adjustments proves that the adjustments are correct”
    Posted on December 21, 2017 by tonyheller

    You really can’t make this stuff up. Why bother to take measurements at all, if you are going to alter the results to match your theory?

    Or perhaps Mosher is secretly on our side? He is openly admitting the data tampering is occurring.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2017/12/mosher-the-alignment-of-c02-with-adjustments-proves-that-the-adjustments-are-correct

    😂😂

  12. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, those associated with the American climate blogs have lost all credibility.

  13. oldbrew says:

    PV: they don’t like the look of N&Z atmospheric theory. Fatal for radiative gas arguments.

  14. […] oldbrew on Henrik Svensmark: Current mode… […]

  15. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, maintenance of a principled boycott of the devilish American climate blogs is the ethical path.