Wet summer warning system developed

Posted: December 20, 2017 by oldbrew in Forecasting, Natural Variation, research, Temperature, weather

Forecaster highlights the jetstream over the UK [image credit: BBC]


It’s more predictable than we thought, they say – at least in some ways. The test of time awaits.

Researchers in the UK have developed a method of improving the long range accuracy of summer weather in the UK and Europe, says the BBC.

The scientists found a connection between sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in March and April and the subsequent summer’s rain or shine.

The researchers say the new method may benefit agriculture, tourism and construction.

The study has been published in the journal PNAS.

Scientific effort to improve longer term forecasts have been focussed on winter weather patterns, which can pose a sizeable threat to humans and the environment. Developing better seasonal forecasts for the summer has lagged significantly behind.

Now researchers at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading have found that springtime temperature anomalies in the north Atlantic are connected to the circulation of the atmospheric and the position of the jet stream over Europe in the following July and August.

“We found a strong link between sea surface temperatures east of Newfoundland during the spring and the position of the jet stream and the weather in the UK,” said lead author Dr Albert Osso from the University of Reading.

“We found that there is a predictability.”

The researchers believe the temperature anomalies in the sea change what is termed the meridional gradient and the position of the jet stream is strongly influenced by this factor.

“The jet stream gives the direction of the storms that cross the Atlantic and affect Europe and the UK,” said Dr Osso.

“What we have seen is that when temperatures are warmer than normal in this area of the ocean, the storms basically move far north and they miss the UK, not all of them, but on average most of the storms are going to miss.”

The scientists say that their findings mean that there is considerable potential to improve the seasonal forecast – with important implications for many sectors.

Continued here.

Comments
  1. Stephen Richards says:

    Joe Bastardi has been doing this for 30yrs

  2. Bloke down the pub says:

    The researchers say the new method may benefit agriculture, tourism and construction.

    If they get it right. If on the other hand, they predict a lousy summer and everyone books up to go abroad, only for the UK weather to turn out nice, then their name will be Mud.

  3. oldbrew says:

    Science News: The sun’s outer atmosphere is far more complex than previously thought

    Newly analyzed images could help solve mysteries about solar wind and the super-hot corona
    DECEMBER 19, 2017
    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/sun-corona-outer-atmosphere-complex

  4. Gamecock says:

    Weather is still subject to change.

    Scientists say their work is important and should continue to be funded:

    ‘The scientists say that their findings mean that there is considerable potential to improve the seasonal forecast – with important implications for many sectors.’

  5. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    “The scientists found a connection between sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in March and April and the subsequent summer’s rain or shine.”

    Sounds like they are claiming to have discover what is already known;

    It reminded me of the link between the weather in April – and in particular rainfall – and likely summer weather conditions.

    It’s one of the few links that we have here in the UK, such is the changeable nature of our weather, although it cannot be entirely relied on.

    But there have been many warm and sunny Aprils – such as 1997 and 2007 – which have been followed by wet summers.

    The late Bill Foggitt, Yorkshire’s most famous amateur weatherman, who kept generations of weather readings for over a century at his home in Thirsk, North Yorkshire, once told me to be very wary of fine and settled Aprils.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/35eec69b-c40b-4e58-9305-ca46b3d7a1c6

    This Linn works well and why after the warm March into early April led me to expect a cool wet summer. Can I get a grant now?

  6. ren says:

    During Christmas, it will be very cold in North America.

  7. ren says:

    The reason is a very weak polar vortex.

  8. oldbrew says:

    From Ian Wilson:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017
    The Dec-January-February Zonal N=4 Standing Wave in the SST and MSLP Anomalies of the Southern Hemisphere are Back!

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/the-dec-january-february-zonal-n4.html

    SST Anomaly 19/12/2017 showing the prominent N=4 standing-wave like pattern. Four “H” symbols are superimposed on this plot to show the location of the enhanced semi-permanent high pressure cells in the Southern Sub-Tropical High Pressure Ridge.

  9. tom0mason says:

    So the tax-payers’ £3 billion or so for a new computer access finally gives what many meteorologist already knew (or at least had an educated guess there was a connection).
    What next? Tell us that the crops and tree growth is dependent on the North Atlantic ocean temperature? Oh, that is next is it…

  10. oldbrew says:

    tom – this is next…La Niña in cooler weather shock…

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2018-global-temperature-forecast

    The Met Office definition of cooler is…’unlikely to be a new record’ 😎

  11. tom0mason says:

    Thanks OB, that gave me a nice Christmas chuckle. 😆
    I wonder if the Met Office will be playing the same tune come the summer…

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