Sidorenkov and Wilson: new solar retrograde motion paper

Posted: December 23, 2017 by oldbrew in climate, Cycles, Earthquakes, History, research, solar system dynamics, volcanos
Tags: , ,

Sun at solar system barycentre 1990 [via Arnholm’s solar simulator]


H/T Michele Casati

INFLUENCE OF SOLAR RETROGRADE MOTION ON TERRESTRIAL PROCESSES
N.S.Sidorenkov, Ian Wilson

ABSTRACT. The influence of solar retrograde motion on secular minima of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, climate changes, and other terrestrial processes is investigated. Most collected data suggest that secular minima of solar activity, powerful volcanic eruptions, significant climate changes, and catastrophic earthquakes occur around events of solar retrograde motion.

Keywords: barycentric motion of the sun; secular minima of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, climate changes; the historical process of humankind.

1. Barycentric motion of the sun

The amplitude of the 24th 11-year cycle of solar activity was found to be the smallest over the last 200 years. Even smaller amplitudes of 11-year sunspot cycles were observed only during the Dalton Minimum. What is the cause of this decay of the amplitude of the 11-year sunspot cycle? The most plausible explanation of this phenomenon can be provided by the Jose cycle (Jose, 1965), which he obtained by calculating the trajectory of solar motion around the center of mass of the solar system. Let us look at his work more closely.

Full paper here [pdf download, 4 pages].
– – –
Other sections of the paper:
2. Volcanic explosions
3. Centuries cold period
4. The last 1990 event
5. Historical processes
6. Conclusion

Comments
  1. J Martin says:

    It’s good to see mention of Landscheidt’s work appear in this paper. Something that couldn’t happen on wuwt, any post with the name Landscheidt in it doesn’t even get as far as moderation, you get a message telling you it is blocked. I think it’s rather sad that wuwt feels so threatened by the name Landscheidt.

    Back to this paper. I would have liked to have seen an attempt made to project into the near future, say 50 years or so though. But I guess volcanic activity and VEI numbers can’t be predicted and in any case I think most pundits no longer think that any cooling if it happens will get down to Dalton levels of cooling. I just hope that we do get some actual cooling at some point in the coming decades to inject a wake up call into the miserable alarmists.

  2. J Martin says:

    If memory serves me correctly, Landscheidt was predicting something between a Dalton and a Maunder this time around. Yet Leif Svalgaard is expecting solar cycle 25 to be slightly higher than SC24, this would leave us in uncertain territory with regard to cooling, pauses, or warming, as some pundits (Geoff Sharp ?) think that the level of activity in SC24 was sufficient to maintain temperatures, while others think it was low enough to lead to some cooling, or at least a pause in warming over the next cycle, assuming the effect of each cycle is delayed 11 years, also a controversial viewpoint.

    Sadly for solar science and indeed image science the Livingston Penn (+Svalgaard) work has been closed, but in any case it had become clear that solar magnetism was no longer going to drop to the 1500 minimum which would certainly have been a wonderful opportunity for scientific study.

    We can only wait and see how temperatures pan out. My guess and that’s all it is, reading all I can find, is that the current slow rate of temperature increase we have seen will continue, that alone will be uncomfortable for the co2 alarmists as they will have to distort databases still further.

    @ Ian Wilson. Do you have any dates and numbers for the next retrograde motion ? Is a measure of magnitude included in those numbers ?

  3. J Martin says:

    Sadly for solar s hence and indeed image science

    Should have been

    Sadly for solar science and indeed climate science

    I really hate auto correct.

    Fixed [mod]

  4. astroclimateconnection says:

    Thank you oldbrew and Rog for highlighting this recent paper by Nikolay Sidorenkov and myself. The paper is largely the result of the Nikolay’s pioneering work on this topic and so he should receive almost all of the credit. It adds to the large body of work that Nikolay has already produced on this important topic. I believe that the publications of Nikolay and his collaborators in Russia need far more recognition than they are getting in the Western academic circles.

    One thing I like about Nikolay and the other Russian researchers on Barycentric motion is that they are not afraid to cite the work of Landscheldt. They have even named the coming global temperature minimum after him.

    Landscheidt T.: 2003, Energy and Environment, 14, 4.

  5. astroclimateconnection says:

    J Martin,

    The retrograde barycentric motions of the Sun are spaced by roughly 179 years. Since the current one was in 1990 that would mean that the next one is in 2169 A.D. I suppose that their magnitudes could be ranked by the using the size of their negative angular momentum about the barycentre, however we would need to have a better understanding of the fundamental mechanism involved to be able to make predictions from these numbers.

  6. astroclimateconnection says:

    J Martin,

    You might want to look at this blog post of mine that tries to connect the for the strongest lunar tides acting upon the Earth and the asymmetries in the Sun’s barycentric motion (SIM asymmetry). Note that the retro-motions of the Sun occur roughly 22 years after maximums in the asymmetry of the Sun’s motion about the barycentre of the solar system.

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2010/03/synchronization-between-solar-inertial.html

    Here are the dates:
    ___________________PEAKS__________PEAKS_____________________
    PEAK_____________SIM_____________SIM___________RETRO____
    LUNAR_TIDES_____ASYMMETRY____ASYMMETRY_____MOTION_SUN
    _________________________________+22 YEARS___________________

    1247________________1251_____________1273___________1275______
    1433________________1432_____________1454___________1454______
    1610________________1611_____________1633___________1632______
    1787________________1791_____________1813___________1811______
    1974________________1970_____________1992___________1990______

    N.B.

    1. The peak lunar tides are separated by either 177 or 186 years, with the long term average being 181.5 year.

    2. There are five SIM asymmetries between each lunar tidal peak. This means that each SIM asymmetry is separated from it predecessor by roughly 35.8 years (= 179 years / 5) (see the figure displayed in the blog post cited above). This ~ 36 year period is often associated with the Bruckner climate cycle(= 2 x Saros cycle = 2 x 18 years).

    [Interestingly, the Neptune-Saturn Synodic period = 35.97 years is very close to 1/5th the 179-year Jose cycle.]

    3. The dates for the peak asymmetries in the Sun’s barycentric motion are very close to those for the maximum deviation on the Earth Length-of-Day (LOD) from its long term trend. This indicates a connection between the deviations in the Earth’s rotation rate (that have an average separation of ~33 years) are linked to the cycles in the barycentric motion of the Sun.

    ___MAXIMUM_______PEAKS IN
    ___DEVIATION________SIM___
    _____IN LOD_____ASYMMETRY

    ____1729____________1724
    ____1757____________1753
    ____1792____________1791
    ____1827____________1827
    ____1869 ___________1869
    ____1906 ___________1901
    ____1932____________1932
    ____1972____________1970

    Wilson, I.R.G., 2011, Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation
    Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate?
    The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3811.

    http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Essays/View/3811

  7. oldbrew says:

    In the first graphic below, the white line is the path of the Sun from June 1811 to March 1990 (~179 years).
    The only times the white line passes through the barycentre are 1811 (start date) and 1990 (end date).
    There should be 9 each of outer (large) and inner (small) loops, i.e. one of each per Jupiter-Saturn conjunction cycle in the period.

    This is the solar position in 1632 (= 1811 less 179 years)

  8. oldbrew says:

    IW says: ‘2. There are five SIM asymmetries between each lunar tidal peak. This means that each SIM asymmetry is separated from its predecessor by roughly 35.8 years (= 179 years / 5)’
    – – –
    See: ‘Five-Fingered “Hands ” in the Sun’s Dynamics’ – here…
    http://bourabai.kz/landscheidt/consider.htm

    Landscheidt’s Fig. 2 caption says:
    Big hands and big fingers cover cycles o/solar activity with mean lengths of 178.8 years and 35.8 years, which are reflected in terrestrial cycles

  9. Geoff Sharp says:

    A comparison of them shows that, in all five cases, the secular minima of solar ac- tivity approximately agree with the times of solar retrograde motion (with a delay of approximately 18 years).

    This is the major flaw in this paper along with Landscheidt’s work. The solar retrograde motion happens near solar grand minimum but it is not the cause. It only happens near the solar downturn because U/N must be close together for both to occur.

    J/U/N together with S opposite is the configuration that coincides precisely with all solar slow downs, this can easily be checked via Arnholm’s SIM2 software. Go for it Oldbrew.

  10. astroclimateconnection says:

    Geoff,

    Can you show a case where solar retrograde motion is not present during a solar grand minimum. If not, then you cannot claim that J/U/N together with S opposite is the configuration which precisely coincides with all solar slow downs unless:

    a) You can measure the date for the start of the solar slow down precisely
    b) You can show that the planetary configuration that you are proposing occurs at or
    just prior to the start of a slow down, while the retro-grade motions do not.

    You need to clarify your claim – assertion is not proof.

  11. oldbrew says:

    In the graphic below, all planetary motion is anti-clockwise.

    Jupiter has passed Neptune in September 2009, i.e. about two months before the date shown. It is then between U and N as we see. Jupiter goes past Uranus in September 2010, so after one year it is no longer between U and N.

    Saturn orbits faster than Uranus, so is about to move out of the ‘opposing arc’ of Uranus and Neptune at the date shown on the graphic, and by February 2011 Saturn is opposite Jupiter.

    The Jupiter-Sun line goes via the barycentre in 2007 and is close to it from 2005-2009.
    ‘June through September 2007 brought record sea ice melt in the Arctic’
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8074

    FYI – SC 24 progression

  12. Geoff Sharp says:

    Hi Ian, the retrograde motion always occurs near solar slow downs, it can occur either side but is generally offset by about 20 years. Low resolution solar proxy data could lead one to think they were linked but the sunspot record shows a much clearer view (ala Landscheidt). The retrograde orbit needs U/N together as does my configuration, one configuration is usually 20 years off while the other is spot on. 20 years is not close enough?

    1990 and 1630 are two examples where the zero crossing didn’t coincide with solar slowdown, but that would greatly increase if the sunspot record went back further.

  13. Geoff Sharp says:

    That’s it oldbrew, the planetary position shown is having a direct effect on the solar cycle, no need to be 20 years ahead or behind. At the same time a disordered inner loop orbit is occurring and solar angular momentum is being perturbed. The said position of the planets varies each time over the 4627 year cycle so each disturbance is different. During SC20 the disturbance was weak, but there was no corresponding retrograde orbit?

  14. oldbrew says:

    The sunspots are near zero at the time of the graphic i.e. late 2009.

    The U-N ‘arc’ was bigger in SC20 than in SC24, during the time J was moving through it (with S opposite) from April 69 to May 71.

    That was during the peak sunspot period of solar cycle 20.
    http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl20.html

    In 2150 the J-S opposition will be ‘inside’ the U-N arc, which will be about the same size as the arc in the graphic above. That will happen again in 2189 but the arc will be a bit bigger. (Sun at barycentre in 2169).

  15. astroclimateconnection says:

    Geoff,

    Personally, I am not wedded to the idea that the causal source is the Sun’s barycentric retrograde motion and so I am open to alternative ideas like yours. However, I do not think that we have a good handle on the starting dates for grand solar minimums.

    For example, see this blog post for a discussion on the starting date for the Maunder Minimum.

    The generally accepted starting date is around 1645- However, there is reasonable evidence to suggest that it may have started as early as 1618.

    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/v-e-j-tidal-torquing-model-maunder.html

    Vaquero et al. (2011) The Astrophysical Journal
    Letters 731 (2011) L24

    REVISITED SUNSPOT DATA: A NEW SCENARIO FOR
    THE ONSET OF THE MAUNDER MINIMUM

    http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/731/2/L24/fulltext/apjl_731_2_24.text.html#apjl386754r35

    The earlier onset date is more compatible with the SIM asymmetry date of 1611 which occurs 7 years before 1618

    _____PEAKS________
    ______SIM__________
    __ASYMMETRY_____
    ___________________

    _________1611______
    _________1791______
    _________1791______
    _________1970______
    _________2008______

    Which suggest that the next solar minimum in activity should start around 2015!

  16. Geoff Sharp says:

    Ian, I agree the Maunder data is not clear, McCracken also has a paper suggesting it could have started around 1610 if memory serves. There is a medium AMP event at 1610, so perhaps some slow down, but also a recovery before really taking hold at 1650 (big AMP event at 1650). The retrograde orbit of 1630 is still too early?

    The Dalton is also of interest, there is no retrograde orbit before SC5, but there is a medium AMP event just before SC5.

  17. oldbrew says:

    Jupiter-Sun line grazes the SSB from 1647-1649 inclusive, with U and N together, Saturn opposite.
    J is at right-angles to the S-U line in 1648…

  18. Geoff Sharp says:

    Oldbrew, Jupiter grazes the sun line every 11 years. Have a look a SIM1 and the disordered inner loop orbit when J/U/N together with S opposite, when the inner loop tries to be an outer loop the key.

  19. oldbrew says:

    GS – sure, but maybe the long hold in the same relative (to SSB) position is not so common?

    Also there isn’t really a ‘J/U/N together with S opposite’ around 1650?

  20. Geoff Sharp says:

    1650 has one of the strongest J/U/N +S opposite configurations across the Holocene Oldbrew.

    [reply] OK

  21. Paul Vaughan says:

    The enduring sting of the lost red flag is palpable:


    5. Historical processes

    A hundred years ago, Chizhevsky (1924) hypothesized that solar activity affects historical processes. The collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia occurred about the event of solar retrograde motion in 1990, the Napoleonic wars broke out about the event of 1811, the Time of Troubles in Russia and the splitting of the Russian Orthodox Church were about the event of 1632, and the Mongol invasion of Russia happened about the event of 1275. This evidence suggests that historical processes in Russia are possibly connected with events of solar retrograde motion. There are similar comparisons of historical events in China with secular minima of solar activity, which suggest nearly the same connection.

    Flammable stacks of paper guarantee not even the freedom of speech. The major western fault tried to hammer dragons into an unstable lukewarm union that naturally backfired. Neither reckless fracture nor forced unity ensure stability.

    The Sun paces our traverse of golden opportunities.

    1. When the Sun abruptly changed pace, independence erupted in Latin America:

    2. The Sun left tracks all over Philippine flag history:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_the_Philippines

    3. There’s a legend about unnecessary red tape on Catalonia’s golden shield (“Estelada”):


    The Spanish Constitution says Spain is “indivisible”.

    That constitution — like others in the Spanish series — arose when our Sun changed up its pace:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Constitutions_of_Spain

    An enduring framework is sufficiently flexible and resilient to maintain dynamic stability through the sharpest corners.

  22. oldbrew says:

    From the paper:
    ‘the event of solar retrograde motion in 1990, the
    Napoleonic wars broke out about the event of 1811, the
    Time of Troubles in Russia and the splitting of the
    Russian Orthodox Church were about the event of 1632’

    On that theme:
    The Thirty Years’ War was a war fought primarily in Central Europe between 1618 and 1648. One of the longest and most destructive conflicts in human history, as well as the deadliest European religious war in history, the war resulted in eight million fatalities.
    . . .
    The Catalan revolt had sprung up spontaneously in May 1640.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War

  23. Paul Vaughan says:

    OB, that’s also when Portugal broke free of Spain (Iberian Union).

    During each solar cycle slowdown, Spain has transitioned to a new order.
    During each rapid solar cycle acceleration Spain has lost control (Latin America and The Philippines).


    0 colonial masters
    1 brilliant Sun
    1 symbolic flag
    2 solid colors
    3 golden stars
    5 sharp corners
    8 sun rays
    It’s a Phine sequence. Add 1 lippi leader to complete the solar phrase in down-to-earth plain-spoken terms.

  24. Paul Vaughan says:

    “From 1580 to 1640, Spain had controlled Portugal and thus all of its territories in the Americas.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viceroyalty_of_the_R%C3%ADo_de_la_Plata

    “the Sun of May was a representation of the Inca sun god Inti.”
    “The specification “of May” is a reference to the May Revolution which took place in the week from 18 to 25 May 1810, which marked the beginning of the independence from the Spanish Empire”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_of_May

    “The May Revolution […] was the first successful revolution in the South American Independence process.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Revolution

  25. oldbrew says:

    Re ‘big AMP event at 1650’ (GS comment)

    A similar S-JUN pattern emerges in about 2008 i.e. 2 * 179 years later.

  26. oldbrew says:

    Re: There are five SIM asymmetries between each lunar tidal peak. This means that each SIM asymmetry is separated from its predecessor by roughly 35.8 years (= 179 years / 5)
    – – –
    Sun: solar sidereal rotation mean = 25.38 days, Carrington rotation = 27.2753 days
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_rotation#Sidereal_rotation

    2576 (184 * 14) ssr = 2397 Cr = 178.9945 sidereal years [2576 – 2397 = 179]

    Moon: sidereal month = 27.321662 days, synodic month = 29.530589 days
    http://scienceworld.wolfram.com/astronomy/SiderealMonth.html

    2214 (184 * 13, -1) sid.m. = 2393 syn.m. = 178.9995~ sidereal years [2393 – 2214 = 179]

    Cross-check: 2576 – 2393 = 2397 – 2214 = 183
    – – –
    NB 14 Jupiter-Neptune conjunctions = 178.959 years (about 13 days less than 2576 solar rotations)

  27. Paul Vaughan says:

    Years: average annual strikes
    1862-69: 6
    1870-84: 20
    1885-94: 33
    1895-1905: 176
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution

    Some parts of our world get a real kick out of solar cycle length.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Purge (1936-1938)

    • • ☼ • •

    Note the 2 largest heliospheric kicks on record (early 1920s & late 1980s):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union (1922-1991)

  28. Paul Vaughan says:

    Exponential logistics have quantum limits.

    More hinges on solar cycle length than Napoleonic and World Wars:
    ☼ The Enlightenment
    ☼ French, Industrial, and Russian Revolutions

    Stellar constraints permit many possible constellations of stable multi-polar balance.

    A principled division of unity — not reckless fracture and not forced unity — is the most stable balance during a natural disturbance from K to r.

    Fleeting r-strategy dominance following natural disturbance (sea change) is eventually succeeded by new K-strategy mastery.

    Paper agreements have lifespans amenable to survival analysis based on faulted assumptions. The uniformity assumption (the major western fault) was a uni-polar construct rooted in the opportunity of past disturbance.

    The upset at the time was with the church. Opportunity was ripe for separation. Statutory resurrection of higher belief 200 years later was climatic. Only artistic expression conveys the fervent intensity:

    “You will believe in me and I will never be ignored.
    I would die for you. Beg and steal for you…
    I would twist the knife and bleed my aching heart …and tear it apart.”
    —– Garbage — “#1 Crush”

    Giant spools of flammable red tape were dropped on peacefully sleeping dragons.

    Carrying capacity was again exceeded (on the base of faulted assumptions), ripening opportunity for another principled separation of powers with the next natural disturbance.

    Naturally principled leaders normally held by society in reserve during times of peace rose to the pressing challenge. Riding stellar tides they raced stably out of the logistic curves fathoming exponentially 5-Star Asian O-mission from the “Big Five” personality OCEAN.

    Some were banished for inscrutable belief as the political cannons roared:

    “If I’m a pagan of the good times, my lover’s the sunlight.
    What you got in the stable? Got a lot of starving faithful.
    Drain the whole sea, get something shiny.
    Good God let me give you my life.”
    —– Hozier — “Take me to church”

    “Reasoning, as a part of executive decision making, is also closely identified with the ability to self-consciously change, in terms of goals, beliefs, attitudes, traditions, and institutions, and therefore with the capacity for freedom and self-determination.”

    Institutionalized worship of “reason” based on the major western fault (logistically impossible uniformity prescription) exponentially erodes “the capacity for freedom and self-determination”.

    Even the best gold-starred red tape has a finite lifespan. Deep on the seafloor alongside drowning memories of a lost red flag lies a shiny cabal of “reason” wrapped by giant spools of climatic red tape sunk to unimaginable depths, awakening OCEAN dragons…

    https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-31/comment-page-1/#comment-133280

    Next: historical review of Section d’Or

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