Met Office Predicted The Cold Weather That They Did Not Predict!

Posted: February 24, 2018 by oldbrew in Forecasting, predictions, Temperature, Uncertainty, weather

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Met Office seasonal forecasting skill turns out to be below average – heading towards the lowest 20%.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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Conditions over the weekend and into the early part of next week will become increasingly cold, possibly exceptionally cold.

Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings for snow are in force for parts of eastern and southeast England from 4pm on Monday and for large parts of the UK through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Snow showers are expected to develop widely during the start of the week, with some locations likely to see accumulations of 5 to 10 cm. Although other sites may see less frequent showers leading to much smaller accumulations up to 2 cm.

The very cold conditions, which are likely to be the coldest spell of weather for several years, are likely to remain in place for the remainder of next week. The cold easterly wind will persist bringing a significant wind chill which will make it feel several degrees colder than thermometers indicate. Even without…

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Comments
  1. ren says:

    Siberian frost reaches Poland and Germany.

  2. Bitter@twisted says:

    The Met Orifice’s models couldn’t even predict that Monday follows Sunday with any certainty.

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    “are likely to be the coldest spell of weather for several years”

    I really have to stock in some extra popcorn, I can hardly wait until next year when they miss that mark as well. Will they put it down the memory hole or try to tap dance their way out of it? Curious minds want to know, ha ha.

  4. nuwurld says:

    After such a dramatic stratospheric warming and polar vortex disruption this is the short term effect (reversal of mid-latitude westerlies). There is a much longer influence to follow which is the downward propogation of the gph anomaly which eventually manifests as an increase in polar surface pressure. This loads the Arctic Oscillation negative and results in above normal polar cell overturning and cold ‘spillage’ into the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, as a component of the larger AO is set to become negatively loaded for further month. Under full winter conditions this would be an horrific outlook. A strongly negative loaded NAO would set the polar front and resultant jet stream and storm track south, locking Europe into colder polar cell air. However, at this point in the season, the increasing solar input is striving to reduce the polar cell area and send the polar front boundary north. The vying of signals will be interesting to watch as the polar vortex attempts to settle at a time when it seasonally fades in influence.
    Will a negatively loaded AO and NAO, overcome the seasonal poleward advance of the jet, given that the Sun is quiet and it is active Sun that largely produces the strongest northwards progression?
    Interesting month ahead.

  5. ren says:

    They start snowfall in Italy.

  6. ren says:

    Sorry. The snowfall in Italy has begun.

  7. ren says:

    In the upper stratosphere, a drop in temperature is visible, which means the strengthening of the polar vortex in these layers.

  8. ren says:

    On Tuesday, February 27, pressure above the Scandinavia may increase to 1056 hPa.

  9. ren says:

    The pressure in the north of Scandinavia is now 1048 hPa.

  10. Colin says:

    Met Office charts have Siberian air reaching all the way to Greenland by Wednesday 12:00. In fact only about 200 miles short of Newfoundland!

  11. ren says:

    It is obvious that the pressure at the surface of the Earth does not depend on the troposphere’s height (latitude).

  12. ren says:

    Strong snowfalls reach Siena in Italy.

  13. tom0mason says:

    Is it that the Met-Office is over-reliant on expensive computer models for making their forecasts?
    I would question the real skill some of these models have when events such as the situation is now. Currently we have the effects of the recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) reversing or stalling the normal westerly flow with retrogression.
    These models have previously shown reasonable skill at long term forecasting (more than 5 days), however now when the normal working parameters are not there (westerlies not moving as expected, normal highs and lows are positionally swapped, and moving in different (anomalous) directions and speeds) they are foundering.

    I question that all the weather model’s internal dependencies between parameters now being correctly calculated. Can these models give a fair forecast accuracy further out than 5 days currently? I suspect not. IMO, it’s not that they are not useful but that they may not be as good as usual in the current abnormal situation.

    Maybe the Met-Office needs to look at the operation of their models, and look at how forecasts in these kinds of situations were made before such technology was used, to give them more insight as to what is happening and what is required to improve these models.

  14. oldbrew says:

    Met Office 3 month outlook 26.01.18 – ‘little likelihood of a sudden stratospheric warming’

    Back to the drawing board – or was it a crystal ball :/

  15. nuwurld says:

    The 2013 downward propagation of gph to surface pressure and then central England temperature correlation is shown here.

    http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01901b6c25e4970b-pi

    But is of course an earlier in season phenomenon and hence more loaded by the disturbance.

  16. oldbrew says:

    Shock new research shows Antarctic ice growing not melting

    National Geographic has just run an extraordinary story showing, against scientists’ expectations, antarctic ice on the Ross Ice Shelf is growing, not melting. This has profound implications for “consensus” views on global warming and its impact

    by the commentator on 24 February 2018

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6752/shock_new_research_shows_antarctic_ice_growing_not_melting
    – – –
    GWPF: http://www.thegwpf.com/the-ross-ice-shelf-is-freezing-not-melting-scientists-surprised/

  17. ren says:

    Morning temperature in Southern Europe.

  18. oldbrew says:

    BBC News showing shots of light snow falling in central London now.
    – – –
    BBC Weather: Forecast shows heavy snow for next few days

    Freezing winds from Russia are bringing Arctic conditions to the UK. Snow is forecast to start settling on Monday and continue to build up throughout the week. BBC Weather warns that southern England may experience a “full-blown blizzard”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-43190795/bbc-weather-forecast-shows-heavy-snow-for-next-few-days

  19. oldbrew says:

    Rare snowfall blankets Rome

    http://www.dw.com/en/rome-sees-first-snowfall-in-years/a-42740456
    – – –
    Rome blanketed by snow as Arctic storm sets European records

    The Italian capital’s schools were ordered closed, while train, plane and bus services were crippled.

    Press Association
    Last updated:26 February 2018
    http://home.bt.com/news/science-news/rome-blanketed-by-snow-as-arctic-storm-sets-european-records-11364254436414

  20. ren says:

    The current temperature in the south of Europe.

  21. ren says:

    In Great Britain, the “lake effect” now occurs with the eastern winds. Moisture is accumulated by cold wind blows over the North Sea.

  22. ren says:

    Snowfall in Spain.

  23. ren says:

    The temperature today in England will fall.

  24. oldbrew says:

    ‘Beast from the East’ sends Europe mercury plummeting
    February 27, 2018

    “This week looks like being the coldest period we have had in the UK for a number of years,” Britain’s weather service, the Met Office, said on Sunday, warning of travel delays.

    “Parts of England and Wales are likely to see their coldest spell of weather since at least 2013—perhaps 1991,” said the Met Office’s chief forecaster Frank Saunders.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2018-02-beast-east-europe-mercury-plummeting.html

    Raising the alarm level…

  25. oldbrew says:

    UK weather: Heavy snow causes UK-wide disruption

    Kent, Surrey, Suffolk and Sussex are among the worst-hit counties, seeing 5-10cm of snow, while north-east England has received up to 8cm (3in).
    . . .
    BBC Weather meteorologist Gemma Plumb said: “On Wednesday and Thursday it is going to feel bitterly cold with a lot of areas seeing maximum temperatures below freezing.

    “It will feel more like -10C or -14C in some parts and there will be heavy snow showers in the East, particularly in north-east England.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43207709
    [inc. short video explainer]
    – – –
    UK set to be colder than North Pole
    https://news.sky.com/video/we-are-officially-colder-than-the-north-pole-11268855

  26. ren says:

    The pressure over the Gulf of Bothnia has increased to over 1057 hPa.

    Falling AO means snowfall in the south of Europe.

  27. ren says:

    Quickly freezes the Baltic Sea.

  28. ren says:

    The polar vortex begins to accelerate in the upper stratosphere. Recently, geomagnetic activity has increased.

  29. oldbrew says:

    An extreme Siberian cold snap sweeping across Europe is claiming lives in Poland and Romania, but also dusted the ancient ruins of Pompeii with snow Tuesday and prompted Amsterdam authorities to prepare the city’s iconic canals for ice-skaters.
    . . .
    Naples city officials said they were misled by forecasts and ended up unprepared for the snow.

    In the Netherlands, authorities banned boats from some of Amsterdam’s iconic canals so they would freeze over and residents could lace up ice skates and glide over the waterways for the first time since 2012.

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/germany-shivers-icy-blast-drives-mercury-53382012

  30. ren says:

    “Lake effect” on the North Sea brings snow to the UK.

  31. ren says:

    Very heavy snowfall will occur in northern Spain.

  32. oldbrew says:

    F1 testing: Sebastian Vettel says staying on track [in Barcelona] hard in cold
    By Adam Cooper and Glenn Freeman Tuesday, February 27th 2018, 18:12 GMT

    Vettel: “Considering that it was snowing also, at the end of the day it’s OK, but it’s very difficult to get the tyres to work. Everybody is struggling with the same issues.

    “It was only 3-4 degrees, the asphalt is 10 degrees, so it’s very, very cold. Not the conditions we normally run.”

    http://classic.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/134572?source=latest

  33. oldbrew says:

    Record Cold In Europe…Greenland Adds 12 Billion Tonnes Of Snow And Ice In Single Day….Enough to Cover 275 Manhattans!
    By P Gosselin on 27. February 2018

    We all recall the hysterical reactions from global warming alarmists whenever an Antarctic glacier calves and a huge chunk of ice cap breaks away in the summertime. The headlines would scream: Ice chunk as big as Manhattan breaks off! (due to global warming, they want us to believe).

    Yet in the wintertime when such a mass (or even far more gets added suddenly), you only hear silence.

    http://notrickszone.com/2018/02/27/record-cold-in-europe-greenland-adds-12-billion-tonnes-of-snow-and-ice-in-single-day-enough-to-cover-275-manhattans/

    Or they try to create a diversion by finding a ‘warming hole’ somewhere 😐

  34. oldbrew says:

    First Rome… now Naples is blanketed in snow as the Mediterranean city is ‘whitewashed’ by its heaviest downfall in 50 years

    Blast of cold weather from Siberia has hit normally mild southern Europe bringing snow to Rome and Naples
    Naples found itself covered in a blanket of snow, forcing the southern city’s airport to close for 90 minutes
    Schools and daycare centres were also forced to close with transport in the city severely disrupted
    City’s mayor told people to stay indoors but they took part in snowball fights and played in the snow

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5440321/Naples-blanketed-heaviest-snow-50-years.html

    Freezyjet…

  35. ren says:

    Strong snowfall in the Pyrenees and southern France.

  36. oldbrew says:

    BBC: Scotland ‘on cusp’ of red extreme weather warning for snow
    2 hours ago
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-43200598


    – – –
    EUROPE HIT BY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
    Date: 27/02/18 The Australian

    http://www.thegwpf.com/europe-hit-by-record-low-temperatures/

  37. oldbrew says:

    Alarmists still claim it’s due to man-made emissions of a trace gas (0.04% of the atmosphere, of which about 0.03% pre-dates the industrial age)…

    Icy Europe, balmy North Pole: the world upside down
    February 28, 2018

    “Positive temperatures near the North Pole in winter are thought to have occurred during four winters between 1980 and 2010,” Robert Graham, a climate scientist at the Norwegian Polar Institute, told AFP.

    They have now occurred in four out of the last five winters.”

    This acceleration, experts said, circumstantially points to climate change, which has—over the same period—warmed the Arctic region twice as fast as the global average.

    Transform the planet

    Another clue may be the Arctic thaw/European deep freeze pairing.

    “The surge of mild weather at the North Pole and the cold front in Europe are directly linked,” Etienne Kapikian, a scientist at Meteo France, the national weather service, told AFP.

    Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2018-02-icy-europe-balmy-north-pole.html
    – – –
    Ignoring the Sun again. Weakest solar cycle for at least 100 years…

    http://notrickszone.com/2017/11/22/signs-show-planet-entering-a-new-dalton-minimum-solar-cycle-24-continues-to-be-weakest-in-200-years/

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